Week 9 best bets: Drake London stars in Madrid, Broncos keep rolling with win over Panthers
• 5 min read
Not too shabby.
After a 5-0 Week 7, this column went 3-2 last weekend, putting us two games over .500 this season as the halfway point arrives this weekend. Trey McBride needed overtime to do it, but he surpassed 70 yards. The Steelers moneyline against the Browns proved to be an easy one, and our weekly two-leg parlay hit easily as Bhayshul Tuten starred in the Jaguars' blowout win over the Colts.
Our two misses were bummers. We had OVER 43.5 in Dolphins-Patriots, a game New England won 24-19. No matter how many ways I add it up, that's 43. Again, a bummer.
I also had Zay Flowers with 90+ receiving yards. He had been going off whenever Lamar Jackson was healthy, and it figured to be a high-scoring game against the Bills. But then Jackson got hurt on the Ravens' first play, and even backup Tyler Huntley got hurt. Flowers not only didn't hit 90+ yards, but he didn't come close. In fact, he was held catch-less for the first time in his entire career. Yikes!
Still, I felt good about the process and feel good about the path we've been on the past two weeks. Let's keep it up in Week 9.
As always, all odds are via DraftKings.
Broncos -2.5 at Panthers (-120)
I hate to say it, but I think Bryce Young and the Panthers' fast start was fool's gold. Or at the very least, it wasn't going to be that good forever. In the past two weeks, Carolina has lost 43-13 and 27-19. The offense has looked terrible. I broke it down last week, but basically it comes down to ...
- The offensive line has been destroyed by injuries, and the guys on the field simply aren't up to snuff.
- The wrinkles Brad Idzik and Young added to the offense this offseason have been picked up on.
- Young already has a tiny margin for error.
Now, here comes a 6-2 Broncos team with a devastating pass rush. Bo Nix still isn't playing great, but he is at least trying to push the ball down the field every once in a while, and rookie running back Jonah Coleman looks like the real deal. I'd bet on him scoring a touchdown against a weak run defense, too.
Drake Maye 1+ interceptions (-110)
After four touchdowns and seven interceptions across the first four weeks, Drake Maye has 11 touchdowns and just one pick across the last four weeks. It helps that the historically difficult schedule has subsided, of course, but Maye has simply stopped putting the ball in harm's way. He has just one turnover-worthy throw since Week 5, per Pro Football Focus.
Unfortunately, this week he plays a Packers defense that has forced a league-high 15 turnovers this season; their 10 interceptions are second-most. Jonathan Gannon deploys all sorts of pressure packages and disguised coverages, and I think one of them will get Maye to turn it over.
Sione Vaki 20+ rushing yards (-110)
Who is Sione Vaki? Thanks for asking! The Lions drafted Vaki, a running back/linebacker out of Utah, in the fourth round in 2024. He hardly played either of his first two years, and it's looking like another middle-round trade-up gone wrong for Detroit. But Sunday against the Lions, Vaki grinded out 65 yards on 11 carries against an excellent Vikings defense. The 11 carries were nearly double his previous career high, and he had some really impressive film. (Thanks to CBS Fantasy guru Jacob Gibbs!)
Jahmyr Gibbs is on pace for 463 touches this season. That is way, way too many. Should the Lions jump ahead against the Dolphins from the start, I could see a lot of Vaki. Last week, the Dolphins gave up 38 yards on seven carries to Patriots backup Corey Kiner. Overall, Miami has actually been decent against the run, but 20+ doesn't seem like too much to ask for, especially in what I expect to be a favorable game script.
Texans at Chargers UNDER 42.5 (-121)
We all know about the Chargers' offensive woes. They haven't scored a touchdown in two straight games, and they've only surpassed 20 points once this year. Now they face a Texans defense that has massively underachieved this season but still has loads of talent. Coming off a bye, Houston should be getting it together on that side of the ball, and there's no better opponent to do it against.
Amid the Chargers' disastrous year, the defense has actually played well: seventh in EPA per play and 10th in success rate. They defend the middle of the field — where C.J. Stroud likes to attack — well. The Texans struggle to run the ball and struggle to cash in in the red zone. That sounds like a recipe for an UNDER to me.
Drake London 6+ receptions AND 80+ receiving yards (+112)
We end with where Sunday starts: what should be a fun game in Madrid. The Falcons have lost three of four but absolutely have the firepower (and the matchup) to keep up with the Bengals. Cincinnati's defense is actually OK down to down but allows a ton of big plays. And when we hear "allows a ton of big plays," we like OVER on yardage totals.
All eyes will be on Bijan Robinson after a quiet couple of weeks, but really, I think this could be a huge Drake London game. Here's why: Cincinnati cannot defend the middle of the field whatsoever. On passes between the numbers, the Bengals have allowed
- 1,196 passing yards, second-most in the NFL
- 9.4 yards per attempt, third-highest in the NFL
That's exactly where Drake London thrives. From Weeks 3-7, which eliminates the two games Cooper Rush started and last week's game against the Buccaneers in a torrential downpour, London had the seventh-most yards in the NFL on throws between the numbers. As long as Penix is playing (he is) and there isn't crazy rain (there isn't projected to be), London should take advantage of a great matchup Sunday. Add in that the Falcons are going to have to throw to keep up, and the volume should absolutely be there, too.
Season record: 21-19
Week 9 picks
KioskNews shows a cleaned-up reading view extracted from the publisher’s page — the original always lives on their site, not ours.