Is Brock Purdy the 'best QB in NFL?' His case is real entering a MVP statement game in Seattle

Brock Purdy ranks second in NFL MVP odds behind Josh Allen entering his 50th career start and a showdown in Week 5 at the defending Super Bowl champions. He's been more embraced as an MVP contender in 2026 while elevating an aging and injury-prone supporting cast to a 4-0 record. It was a different story during his surprise MVP campaign in 2023, where some weaponized the term "game manager" against him.

His style of play in Kyle Shanahan's system also continues to win over critics. But Sunday's game in Seattle represents a big litmus test for Purdy's MVP and superstar quarterback credentials.

Deserving MVP candidate

Purdy has been at the controls of the most efficient offense in the league this year, and he's been phenomenal himself, with a completion rate of 70%, an average of 8.9 yards per attempt, 12 total touchdowns, one turnover, and no sacks. It's about the best combination of clean football and playmaking you could dream up.

It all adds up to the highest EPA per dropback (0.53) by any quarterback through four games since Tom Brady's historic 2007 season. Purdy is also the first quarterback all-time with one or fewer combined sacks, fumbles and interceptions during a 4-0 start. He sports the lowest negative play rate (0.8%) among quarterbacks through four games on record.

The best part, the 49ers have been the most injured team in football this season, racking up the most games missed and IR stints in the NFL up to this point. Most of those have been on defense, but this offense could be humming even more if they had a healthy WR room, which currently has Ricky Pearsall, De'Zhaun Stribling, Demarcus Robinson and Christian Kirk on injured reserve.

Statement game in Seattle

This sets the stage for an early MVP statement game vs. the defending champions. 

A win and the discourse will anoint Purdy the early-season MVP, carrying a beat-up team to a 5-0 start with wins over the Rams, Broncos, and Seahawks, three conference finalists from a year ago. 

A loss means the detractors will crawl out from underneath their rocks and be quick to point out that Purdy's early-season success came vs. the jetlagged Rams, Dolphins, Cardinals, and a Broncos team without its top two cornerbacks. They'll also sprinkle in the term "YAC merchant" referring to the house calls Deebo Samuel and George Kittle have made off short passes in the past two weeks. 

Purdy doesn't have to deal with that fake noise but there is the reality that he and the 49ers have struggled mightily with high stakes against Mike Macdonald's defense. Purdy is 2-4 in his career vs. Macdonald as the Seahawks head coach and Ravens defensive coordinator. The 49ers average just 16.3 points per game in those contests and Purdy had six touchdown passes and nine interceptions. 

The three worst games of Purdy's career (in terms of EPA per dropback) have come vs. Macdonald, including a Christmas nightmare in 2023 where he threw four interceptions in a blowout loss to the Ravens and eventual MVP winner Lamar Jackson.

The other two games came in Week 18 last year, with home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs on the line, including the divisional round in Seattle. The 49ers combined to score nine points and Purdy had just one 20-yard completion in those games. They are two of the four games with fewer than seven points in Kyle Shanahan's head coaching career.

Turning the tide in this rivalry won't be easy without 49ers fullback Kyle Juszczyk, who is out for a few weeks with a knee injury. He is an important chess piece in the 49ers' motion offense, especially opening up running lanes. If Purdy and co. can overcome that underrated absence and exorcise the demons against a vicious "Dark Side" defense backed by "the 12" it'll go a long way in further legitimizing Purdy's MVP campaign and status as a superstar quarterback. The latter has been cemented enough to the point where one bad game wouldn't change that in my opinion. 

Superstar play since return from toe injury

Purdy's MVP-caliber play dates back to Week 11 last season when he returned from a nagging turf toe injury that cost him almost half the season. He racked up 10 touchdowns across two games as the 49ers offense shredded the Colts and Bears for 90 points in primetime, including a thrilling win vs. Chicago to set up that winner-take-all Week 18 game vs. Seattle for the top seed. 

It's remarkable that Purdy leads the NFL in EPA per dropback (0.22) and is among the league leaders in touchdowns (33) and yards per dropback (7.5) since returning from injury despite the two duds against the Seahawks. 

Brock Purdy since injury return last season

	vs Seahawks	vs Rest of NFL
W-L	0-2	11-0
Team PPG	4.5	33.5
TD-INT	0-2	29-8

His production also wasn't due to an all-world supporting cast. He averaged 4.3 yards after catch per completion last season, tied for the fewest in the NFL. You could see why Purdy has started to turn critics into supporters, as he helped lead San Francisco to the playoffs last year, even though Nick Bosa and Fred Warner were lost for the year before the midway point.

Purdy's consistent excellence doesn't hurt, either. He enters the 50th start of his career on Sunday with a 34-15 record, and top-two totals all-time through 50 starts in completion rate (68.1), yards per attempt (8.9) and passer rating (105.7). Only Norm Van Brocklin (hall of famer who last played in the 1960) averages more yards per attempt and only Patrick Mahomes has a higher passer rating through 50 starts.

Purdy is also 34 passes away from officially qualifying on the all-time passing leaderboard, where he would rank first in passer rating. 

Purdy's evolution from Mr. Irrelevant to "best QB in NFL"

The numbers have always been there for Purdy, but the support has never been this loud. It's been fascinating to watch the evolution of the narratives around him in just five seasons:

• 2022: Folk hero as Mr. Irrelevant
• 2023: Highly criticized MVP candidate labeled a "game manager" thanks to an all-word supporting cast (McCaffrey, Samuel, Aiyuk, Kittle, Williams). He averaged most YAC per completion in the NFL
• 2024: Overrated "system QB" as he struggled to a 6-9 record after Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk and other stars deal with injuries
• 2025: Starts to win over critics with back-to-back 5-TD performances after returning from turf toe with 49ers battling injuries
• 2026: Legit MVP candidate as 49ers race off to 4-0 start and Purdy leads the way with 12 total TD, zero times sacked for a San Francisco team riddled with injuries, again.

Now, he's gaining MVP support from all over as he's built up an incredible five-season sample of excellence.

CBS Sports senior NFL writer Pete Prisco gave Purdy his endorsement this week. "He hasn't been sacked yet, and a lot of that is on him. He knows how to get the ball out, get it to the right guy, gets the ball out of his hands, he's not standing back there holding the football. I am so impressed with him. He would be the MVP right now, I don't think there's any question about that."

The best way to describe the narrative shift around Purdy is to look at his supporting cast. In his first two years he put up amazing numbers but he averaged the most yards after catch per completion in the NFL. The 49ers had the best supporting cast in the NFL coupled with Kyle Shanahan's QB-friendly system that helped Jimmy Garoppolo thrive, so it was easy to doubt Purdy's greatness. 

The script has flipped as his supporting cast has been a revolving door. In the last two years he's 19th in YAC per completion as the 49ers have among the most games missed due to injury. His play over five seasons has also proved he's so much better than Garoppolo ever was.

Brock Purdy Career Evolution - NFL Ranks

	YAC per completion	49ers games missed to injury
2022-23	Highest	12th-fewest
2024	14th-most	fourth-most
2025-26	19th-most	fourth-most

If the above Purdy numbers through 50 starts don't speak for themselves, consider that he leads the NFL in pretty much every advanced metric since he was the last pick of the 2022 NFL Draft. 

The chart below sums up his excellence. He's first in EPA per dropback. The most all-encompassing advanced metric, which focuses on how each QB impacts his team's scoring chances, by avoiding negative plays and making big ones, for example. 

He leads in success rate. This looks at how a QB keeps his offense on schedule by moving the chains. 

This is his fourth straight qualified season in which Purdy ranks top five in the NFL in EPA per dropback. Only six others have done that this century. Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady and Philip Rivers. That's Purdy with five surefire Hall of Famers and Rivers, who has a chance to be one. Does that pass the smell test?

You might still think Purdy is overrated and a product of Kyle Shanahan's system. If that's you, you're part of a shrinking crowd, but here's a last gasp effort to win you over.

The more you watch Purdy, the more you see the quarterback superpowers that make him a legit superstar and distance himself from any comparisons to Jimmy Garoppolo or the negative "system quarterback" label. 

The foundation - his anticipation and accuracy - is not just a product of Shanahan's system, but elevates it. As mentioned above, he has the highest completion rate (68.1%) through 50 starts all-time. He sports the sixth-lowest off-target rate (8.9%) since 2022, including a microscopic 5.3% this year (leads NFL). He keeps the offense on schedule as a chain mover. 50% of his career third-down pass attempts convert a first down, the highest rate in recorded history (minimum 300 attempts). Patrick Mahomes is second on the list (48%).

The next thing is sack avoidance. The more advanced stats become accepted, the more people realize sacks are a QB stat. He's only been sacked on 13% of his career pressures, the third-lowest rate in the league since 2022 behind Bo Nix (11%) and Jordan Love (12%). In other words, his pocket movement and decision-making help him to avoid drive-stalling sacks better than almost anyone. Again, he still hasn't been sacked this year.

Finally, an extension of that is his mobility. His quickness and ability to extend plays is still underrated. If you haven't seen this JUMP PASS in Week 3 vs the Cardinals, behold:

If Patrick Mahomes did that, we would all lose our minds. 

Purdy already has 17 first downs (passing/rushing) outside the pocket this year. Only Patrick Mahomes (20) has more. That's more than Josh Allen (14) and Lamar Jackson (15). 

Joe Burrow is one QB lauded for his pocket mobility and underrated ability to extend plays. Purdy stands shoulder-to-shoulder with him in this regard, though. Purdy is eighth in pass EPA outside the pocket since 2022, just behind Burrow (sixth).

When you take a look at the bird's eye view of Purdy's career, you can see how he's earned his current status as a top 10 quarterback in the NFL. Even if he experiences a setback on Sunday in Seattle, he probably has his best football in front of him and who knows, maybe even an MVP award.