NFL Week 5 picks: Experts face off on Buccaneers at Cowboys, 49ers at Seahawks and more

We are already five weeks into the 2026 NFL regular season. Can you believe it? This week, the Philadelphia Eagles and Jacksonville Jaguars face off in London, the San Francisco 49ers will play the reigning Super Bowl champion Seahawks in Seattle, and Josh Allen takes on Matthew Stafford on "Monday Night Football." 

There were 23 games decided by one score over the past two weeks, which is tied for the most in a two-week span in NFL history. A total of 18 games this season were decided by a game-winning score in the final four minutes or in overtime, which is tied for the second-most through Week 4. The NFL always delivers, and we are expecting more fireworks in Week 5. 

Which teams should you pick, and which should you fade? CBS Sports writers Jordan Dajani and Jared Dubin are here to break down the biggest games of the weekend. For clarity, lines for these selections were taken on Oct. 6 over at DraftKings Sportsbook. 

Credit to CBS Sports Research

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys (-8.5) (TNF)

Dajani (Cowboys -8.5): I found myself rooting for new Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Jalon Daniels against the Green Bay Packers last Sunday, given his story. Undrafted to now replacing Baker Mayfield in the starting lineup! I actually nailed the final score of that game at 17-14, and proudly boasted Bucs +3.5. Daniels kept up with Jordan Love, throwing for 148 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions to go along with 55 yards rushing, but the Cowboys are a different animal. It's true their defense is very much a work in progress, but Dak Prescott's offense is averaging over 30 points per contest. It's going to be tough for the Bucs offense to keep pace with CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens at home in primetime. The Buccaneers haven't even covered the spread this year, and I'm not sure that streak ends Thursday night.  …  Prediction: Cowboys 30, Buccaneers 20 

Dubin (Cowboys -8.5): Dallas' offense is too much for Tampa — or anyone else — to handle. Perhaps if the Buccaneers still had Mayfield under center, they could win a shootout, but even the version of Mayfield that was out there to start this season would have made that pretty unlikely. I suppose it's possible the Bucs could muscle and run their way to a win, but given how the offensive line has started the season, I don't see it happening in this one.   … Prediction: Cowboys 34, Buccaneers 17

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-7) (London)

Dajani (Jaguars -7): Our London Jaguars fans must feel proud. The team they've supported for years returns to the United Kingdom as arguably the best team in the AFC, and they will take on a squad that looks like it's flailing. The Eagles blew a 10-point lead to the Los Angeles Rams in the final four minutes of the fourth quarter last Sunday, and went an incredible 0-12 on third downs. If that wasn't bad enough, franchise legend right tackle Lane Johnson decided to retire on Tuesday to focus on his mental health, and the team traded left guard Cam Jurgens to the Baltimore Ravens on Wednesday. I know Jurgens wasn't exactly Larry Allen, but that's just another starter gone on Jalen Hurts' offensive line. 

Then, there are the injuries for the Eagles. Running back Saquon Barkley left last week's game with a hamstring injury, and his replacement, Tank Bigsby, was also injured and placed on injured reserve. Star wideout DeVonta Smith missed last week with a hamstring issue as well. The vibes are not great in Philly right now. Even if Barkley plays, this Jaguars run defense has been fantastic. They allowed a grand total of 17 rushing yards to the Cincinnati Bengals' running backs last week and are tied for second in takeaways with eight.  …  Prediction: Jaguars 27, Eagles 18

Dubin (Eagles +7): I don't exactly feel great about this prediction given the way the Eagles have looked so far this season, but I'm betting that they can at least keep the game relatively close against a Jaguars team that looks like one of the best in football. They did the same thing against the Rams last week, despite all the injury and availability issues Dajani described above. Jacksonville should be able to win, but I like the Eagles to cover.  … Prediction: Jaguars 23, Eagles 17 

Chicago Bears (-3) at Green Bay Packers

Dajani (Packers +3): I can't believe I'm backing a team that I think has looked like one of the worst in the NFL up to this point. They couldn't even cover the spread against an undrafted backup quarterback making his first start. But sometimes that's the NFL! The Packers return home to host the rival Chicago Bears, who are trotting out Tyson Bagent at quarterback. I'm not sure Bagent can run this Bears offense as effectively as Case Keenum can. Plus, running backs D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai are banged up and missed practice on Wednesday. I'm going to kick myself if the Bears cover, but Green Bay is 6-1 SU and ATS in its last seven home games vs. Chicago. Something weird is going to happen!   …  Prediction: Packers 21, Bears 20

Dubin (Push): The Packers barely squeaked by a Buccaneers team playing its backup quarterback last week, and now get to go up against another backup quarterback here in Tyson Bagent. I think Bagent can lead a more competent offense than Jalon Daniels did, though, and the Bears should be able to run the ball against this Green Bay defense. Chicago's defense has played surprisingly well this year, but it's basically been all about success on third down. If the Packers can actually sustain some drives, they should be able to keep things relatively close.  … Prediction: Bears 23, Packers 20

Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5)

Dajani (Steelers -2.5): The Indianapolis Colts just got back from London, while the Steelers had extended rest following their Thursday night loss to the Cleveland Browns. I think that could play a legitimate factor in this game. One thing that stood out to me from Indy's win over Washington was how questionable the defense looked. Athan Kaliakmanis came off the bench and threw for 186 yards, one touchdown and an interception in his first NFL action, while Treylon Burks burned Sauce Gardner for a 47-yard touchdown. The Colts rank second-worst in the NFL in total defense and eighth-worst in total offense. I don't have much faith in the Steelers as legitimate contenders, but they've owned the Colts in Pittsburgh. They are 17-2 all-time when Indy comes to visit. I expect a competitive game, but I understand why the Steelers are 2.5-point favorites.  …  Prediction: Steelers 24, Colts 17

Dubin (Colts +2.5): The Steelers have looked good for exactly one of their three games so far this year, and that was in a game against a Bengals defense that now looks a lot friendlier than it did through the first two weeks of the season. The Colts also have a fairly friendly defense, but I frankly don't trust the Steelers as far as Aaron Rodgers or I can throw them, so I'm taking the Colts to win a low-ish scoring game on the back of Jonathan Taylor.  … Prediction: Colts 20, Steelers 16

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-2.5)

Dajani (49ers +2.5): This could be the game of the week. Two NFC West rivals that fought for the No. 1 seed in the conference last year and ended up battling in the playoffs as well. The Seahawks defeated the lowly Los Angeles Chargers last week, 30-23, although they led 27-6 at one point. The 49ers, on the other hand, won a tough battle vs. the Denver Broncos, 24-14. I think Brock Purdy has been an underrated storyline this year, and should be the frontrunner for MVP. Sure, he's benefitted from playing teams like the Miami Dolphins and Arizona Cardinals, but the 49ers quarterback is the only player to ever start a season 4-0 with one or fewer sacks/fumbles/interceptions combined. He also has the highest EPA per dropback (0.53) through four games since Tom Brady in 2007! The 49ers are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four road games vs. the Seahawks, and 12-2 SU and 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 road divisional games. Give me the upset.   …  Prediction: 49ers 24, Seahawks 23

Dubin (Seahawks -2.5): I think these look like the two best teams in the league so far this season, despite Seattle's weird loss to Washington and the let-up the defense showed in the second half against L.A. last week. The 49ers have been electric offensively despite hemorrhaging skill-position players, but running into this Seattle defense could change that — especially if Mike Evans is still not 100% healthy. The 49ers' defense is also dealing with some injury issues and could have some trouble covering Jaxon Smith-Njigba, as everyone in the league does.  … Prediction: Seahawks 24, 49ers 21

Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) (SNF)

Dajani (Falcons -3.5): I don't want to declare the Atlanta Falcons the greatest show on turf just because they destroyed the Packers and New Orleans Saints, but Michael Penix Jr. has looked comfortable in his return to the field. That's probably because he's got an MVP candidate next to him in Bijan Robinson, who is off to a historic start, averaging 153.5 total yards per game. I would like to see Lamar Jackson take the field on "Sunday Night Football," but it looks like it will be Tyler Huntley instead. "Snoop" is not the worst backup quarterback in the world, but he couldn't get the Ravens to score a single point in the second half vs. the Tennessee Titans. I wish I had gotten this line at -2.5, but I'll have to settle for -3.5.   …  Prediction: Falcons 27, Ravens 21

Dubin (Falcons -3.5): This line seems to be assuming that Lamar Jackson will not play for the Ravens, which would obviously be a huge bummer. (If he does play, you can reverse my pick to Baltimore.) The Atlanta offense has been totally reinvigorated over the last two weeks thanks to an unstoppable rushing attack and some timely passing by Michael Penix Jr., and if the Falcons can keep that going against Jesse Minter's defense, I don't see how the Tyler Huntley-led Ravens offense can keep up. … Prediction: Falcons 24, Ravens 17

Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams (-3) (MNF)

Dajani (Bills +3): This is a fascinating matchup. Both teams appear to be legitimate contenders, but there are pundits out there who believe both are actually overrated. The Bills, after all, were just upset by the New England Patriots and have turned the ball over seven times in the past two games, while the Rams needed to score 14 unanswered points in the final four minutes to beat the struggling Eagles. Have the Rams even looked good this year? They got crushed by the 49ers, took advantage of the Jaxson Dart-less New York Giants, lost to the Broncos and needed a wild comeback to beat the Eagles. The Rams have put up yards, but the Bills have put up points. They lead the NFL with 31.8 points per game, while the Rams are middle of the pack at 21.3 points per game. The Minnesota Vikings have scored more than them! 

Even if you think the Bills are overrated, they were perfect against the spread until last week. The Rams, on the other hand, are 2-2. Buffalo is 6-1 SU and ATS in its last seven games following a loss. I'm going to ride with Josh Allen and take the upset, and hope that Jim Leonhard can do just enough to keep Matthew Stafford at bay.  …  Prediction: Bills 30, Rams 27

Dubin (Rams -3): So far this season, the Rams have alternated between looking like the Rams team we expected and a much different version than that. That's in large part due to the various injury issues that have resulted in some inconsistencies on both sides of the ball. The pass defense has been largely excellent, though, and the possible return of Aaron Donald should help the run defense. I don't think Buffalo has anyone that can deal with the Puka Nacua-Davante Adams-Kyren Williams trio, so the Rams should put some points on the board here.  … Prediction: Rams 28, Bills 24