News24 | 'Super' El Niño could cause 451 000 excess deaths, researchers say

A man cools off at a splash pad amid a heat wave in downtown Algiers in 2023.

Billel Bensalem/APP/NurPhoto via Getty Images

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Extreme heat caused by this ‌year's "super-El Niño" could result in as ⁠many as 451 000 excess deaths across the globe from ⁠June this year to February 2027, researchers with the University of Chicago's Climate Impact Lab have said.

The number of extremely hot days is likely ‌to rise by 44% compared to normal years, Climate Impact Lab said in a report.

The country likely to suffer the ‌most excess heat-related fatalities from September 2026 to February 2027 is Nigeria with 31 400, followed by Indonesia with 19 300 and Sudan with 17 600.

Heat in Africa's Sahel region, including Niger and Chad as well ‌as Nigeria ⁠and Sudan, is likely to cause an additional 66,800 deaths over the six-month period.

The researchers project the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia to see an additional 19 400 deaths combined.

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The number of excess deaths could even climb higher if El Niño extends further into 2027, with key areas of the northern hemisphere, including India and Pakistan, especially vulnerable during their summer ⁠months.

Climate Impact Lab described this year's El Niño as a "postcard from the future", delivering temperatures that will become normal in just a few decades.

It said emergency ⁠response efforts should be directed to high-priority regions to tackle heat-related mortality in the coming months.

"This report allows decision makers to see exactly where emergency actions can be taken ⁠now to save tens of thousands of lives in the ‌coming months," said ‌Michael Greenstone, economist at the University of Chicago and co-founder of the lab.