NFL Week 8 picks, best bets: Commanders handle disadvantaged Eagles, Jaguars rout Colts

Tyler Sullivan picks every game on the Week 8 schedule, including five locks against the spread

Oct 28, 2026 at 7:20 am ET • 6 min read

We didn't just walk the balance beam in Week 7; we made camp on it. I was downright average over last week's slate, no matter which way you slice it. I went 8-6 straight-up and then 7-6-1 ATS. Then, in my locks of the week, I went 2-3 ATS, which brings me to 17-17-1 ATS on the year. That's the definition of middling. 

It's not bad necessarily. I could own a losing record with my locks, but let's remember what they're supposed to be -- LOCKS! We've been burned by a fair share of bad beats throughout the first half of the season and lost by the hook last week in our Vikings pick against the Colts, but there's no room for excuses. It's time to roll up our sleeves and get to work with an eye towards a more productive Week 8, which, as always, begins with my five locks of the week. 

Note: New Orleans, New York (Giants), San Francisco, and Houston are on the bye in Week 8.

2026 record

• Locks of the Week ATS: 17-17-1
• ATS: 45-59-3
• ML: 65-41-1

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars

• Sunday, 1 p.m. (CBS, Stream on Paramount+)

The Colts are on the doorstep of selling off parts amid a 2-5 start to the year, which includes a three-game losing skid entering Week 8. It's hard to see a scenario where things change for the better this weekend, as they'll head to Jacksonville to face a 4-2 Jaguars team that'll be fresh off its bye week. Coming into this slate, the Colts have a claim to be one of the worst offenses in the NFL. 

Their 4.5 yards-per-play average is tied for the worst in the league with the Eagles, and a large part of those issues lies at quarterback. Daniel Jones has yet to rekindle the version of himself from the first half of last year and has thrown an interception in all but one game so far in 2026. Jones ranks 31st out of 33 eligible quarterbacks in passer rating this season, while his EPA per dropback ranks 30th. Among quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts this year, Jones is tied for the second-highest turnover-worth-per-throw rate. 

He now faces a Jaguars pass defense that is just outside the top-10 in the league with an 87.7 passer rating allowed. They're also tied for the third-most interceptions (7) in the league. Conversely, you have Trevor Lawrence playing like an MVP candidate and should face little resistance from a Colts defense that has just two interceptions on the year. 

Projected score: Jaguars 33, Colts 20
The pick: Jaguars -7.5

Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals

• Sunday, 1 p.m. (CBS, Stream on Paramount+)

The Bengals showed us their potential during their 35-point second-half outburst in the win over Baltimore. If anything close to that version of the Bengals is on the field on Sunday, Tennessee doesn't have a puncher's chance of keeping this close. Their passing offense doesn't have the ceiling to go toe-to-toe with Joe Burrow, as the club ranks 29th in passer rating and is tied for last in yards per attempt.

While Cincinnati's offense garners much of the headlines, the Bengals' defense has been an underrated unit this season and was a key reason they were able to endure an offense-free first half in Week 7. Zac Taylor's defense has the third-best red zone efficiency (35% touchdown rate) in the NFL. That matches up well against a Tennessee red zone offense that scores a touchdown on just 47.4% of trips (27th in the NFL). 

Projected score: Bengals 35, Titans 21
The pick: Bengals -10.5

Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams

• Sunday, 4:05 p.m. (Fox, Stream: Fubo, try for free)

In theory, the Chargers would've spent the bye week figuring out what has gone wrong over their 0-6 start to the year and come out firing in Week 8, where they'll technically be the road team but will be in their home stadium as they face the Rams at SoFi Stadium. I just don't see them putting together much of a fight, however. 

Justin Herbert has been among the worst quarterbacks in the league so far this season and comes into Week 8 with a league-high 5.6% turnover-worthy throw rate. While the Rams haven't generated many turnovers, they have five interceptions on the year, showing they are more than capable of taking advantage of any opportunity Herbert gives them. The Rams are also giving up just 186.3 passing yards per game this season, which is the fourth-lowest in the league. No matter which way you slice it, it should be tough sledding for Herbert in this matchup. 

That means Matthew Stafford likely won't have to do much heavy lifting to clear this 6.5-point spread. That's especially true considering that the Chargers can be taken advantage of on the ground. They're allowing 123.8 rushing yards per game, so this could be a matchup where Kyren Williams and Blake Corum become the focal point of the attack. That backfield duo is coming off a win against the Raiders where they each went for over 90 yards rushing to go along with a touchdown. It wouldn't be shocking to see similar production on Sunday. 

Projected score: Rams 30, Chargers 17
The pick: Rams -6.5

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins

• Sunday, 4:25 p.m. (CBS, Stream on Paramount+)

The Dolphins finally got into the win column for the first time all season with a road win against the Jets. While that's great for Jeff Hafley's club to get off the schneid, I don't see the momentum from that victory turning into a two-game winning streak. Since Mike Vrabel became the head coach, New England is 8-4-1 ATS on the road. As a road favorite in games, they are 3-2 ATS with an average margin of victory of 13 points. 

While they'll be on the road, the Patriots have the rest advantage in this game after playing last Thursday. They're also simply the better team. Miami is allowing 5.7 yards per play this season and 7.8 yards per pass attempt (tied for third-highest in the NFL). Drake Maye should continue to find success through the air against a Dolphins secondary that is allowing a league-high 116.8 passer rating against. So long as they don't shoot themselves in the foot, this should be a double-digit victory for New England. 

Projected score: Patriots 30, Dolphins 20
The pick: Patriots -7.5

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders

• Sunday, 8:20 p.m. (NBC, Stream: Fubo, try for free)

The Philadelphia Eagles have been ravaged by injuries, and they aren't getting any reprieve on the schedule either. After playing on Monday night, the Eagles will head on the road for a short week to face a Commanders team coming off its bye week. That's as lopsided a rest advantage as you'll find in the NFL this season. 

The Commanders did lose No. 1 wideout Terry McLaurin for the season due to a torn patellar tendon he suffered in Week 6. While the offense does take a hit in his absence, there are guys who can step up. Along with Stefon Diggs, rookie wideout Antonio Williams has flashed potential, while veteran tight end Chig Okonkwo has been an underutilized piece of the offense that I expect will see more work down the stretch. 

Washington's defense won't be mistaken for one of the best units in the league, but I think they should be able to keep Tanner McKee in check. That's especially true after watching Saquon Barkley on Monday night, as the Eagles running back was clearly limited with a hamstring injury. If he suits up on Sunday, it's hard to imagine he'll be any healthier, capping the ceiling of the Eagles offense. Philadelphia is also 0-2 ATS on the road so far this season with a -8.0 average margin of victory. 

Projected score: Commanders 27, Eagles 17
The pick: Commanders -4

Rest of the bunch

Panthers at Packers (Thursday)
Projected score: Packers 30, Panthers 20
The pick: Packers -3.5

Cardinals at Cowboys
Projected score: Cowboys 28, Cardinals 23
The pick: Cardinals +6

Falcons at Buccaneers
Projected score: Falcons 24, Buccaneers 20
The pick: Falcons +2.5

Ravens at Bills
Projected score: Bills 30, Ravens 27
The pick: Ravens +3.5

Browns at Steelers
Projected score: Steelers 26, Browns 20
The pick: Steelers -3.5

Raiders at Jets
Projected score: Raiders 24, Jets 21
The pick: Raiders +1.5

Vikings at Lions
Projected score: Lions 27, Vikings 21
The pick: Lions -3.5

Chiefs at Broncos
Projected score: Chiefs 23, Broncos 20
The pick: Chiefs -1.5

Bears at Seahawks (Monday)
Projected score: Seahawks 27, Bears 23
The pick: Seahawks -3