Who's on the CFP bubble? Did Week 8 burst the Big 12's two-bid dreams?

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As damaging as Week 8 was to the Big 12's hopes of getting multiple teams into the College Football Playoff, here's the thing: BYU and Utah could still both get in as a Big 12 champ and runner-up.

Follow this: BYU beats Utah during the regular season. Notre Dame beats Miami and runs the table, continuing to give BYU one of the best wins in the country. BYU has regular-season victories against Utah, Notre Dame and Arizona -- then loses its second game of the season to Utah in the Big 12 title game.

Utah is in as the Big 12 champion. Two-loss BYU has regular-season wins against the Big 12 champ and Notre Dame.

And you thought you had it all figured out.

That's what the Bubble Watch is for.

Below you'll find each of the Power 4 conferences broken up into categories. The dreaded category of "Out" wishes teams with at least three losses better luck next year. You'll also find the true contenders in the category of "In" for teams in this week's projection or "Wrong side of the bubble" for those just outside of the bracket. In some cases, it's still "Too early to tell," so we've also aptly named a category for those teams that still have a shot.

This will be your weekly snapshot of where each Power 4 conference stands, along with the top Group of 6 contenders and Notre Dame. Reminder: This will change week-to-week as each team builds -- or busts -- its résumé.

Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 6
Bracket

ACC

Spotlight: Miami. The Hurricanes remain the obvious choice for the No. 1 spot in the latest projection; it's one of the few stable positions in this otherwise wild season so far. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, no team in the country has a better chance to reach the playoff (97.4%). Miami is No. 1 nationally in scoring offense (49 points per game) and No. 11 in scoring defense (15.3 PPG). Its opponents have won 64.1% of their games, which ranks No. 31, and Miami is No. 3 in ESPN's strength of record metric. But ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) still projects the Hurricanes to lose a close one at Notre Dame on Nov. 7. Should that happen, it won't matter if the Canes win the ACC; but if they don't, a two-loss ACC runner-up will open the door for debate.

The enigma: SMU. Don't sleep on the 6-1 Mustangs, who just hammered Cal 59-20 for a fourth straight victory. SMU still has two major opportunities looming: Nov. 14 versus Wake Forest and Nov. 21 at Notre Dame. SMU could finish as a one-loss ACC champ with three wins against CFP top 25 teams (Wake Forest, Notre Dame and Miami, in the ACC title game). Or the Mustangs could finish as a two-loss ACC runner-up with a win against Notre Dame. What if Notre Dame beats Miami and SMU beats Notre Dame? Multiple scenarios remain to keep both ACC championship game participants in the mix.

If the playoff were today

Would be in: Miami

Wrong side of the bubble: Wake Forest

Too early to tell: Duke, SMU, Virginia Tech

Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, NC State, North Carolina, Pitt, Stanford, Virginia, Syracuse

Big 12

Spotlight: Utah. The Utes earned their first win against a ranked opponent -- and Houston also was the first team they beat with a winning record. The Utes were still ranked behind BYU in the latest projection because BYU's wins against Notre Dame and Arizona would likely be valued more in the committee meeting room than Utah's undefeated record against what is the worst schedule of any of the contenders. Utah's No. 89 schedule strength ranks last in the Big 12. Utah can change that significantly over the next three weeks, though, with games at Cincinnati, versus BYU and at Arizona. With two of those three on the road and back-to-back games against ranked opponents, Utah can legitimize its playoff hopes -- or tumble out quickly.

The enigma: Arizona. The one-loss Wildcats have stayed quietly in the conversation but need to beef up their résumé to be taken more seriously by committee members. They lost the biggest game they played -- Sept. 12 at BYU -- and don't have a win against a ranked opponent. Arizona's No. 76 schedule strength ranks No. 14 in the Big 12. It has the fourth-best chance to reach the Big 12 title game, however, behind Utah, BYU and Texas Tech. The Wildcats will face Texas Tech on Saturday and Utah on Nov. 14. The FPI gives Arizona less than a 50% chance to win both of those games, but if the Wildcats run the table, the Big 12's playoff picture will change -- again.

If the playoff were today

Would be in: BYU, Utah

Wrong side of the bubble: Texas Tech, Arizona

Too early to tell: Cincinnati, Houston, Oklahoma State

Out: Arizona State, Baylor, Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia

Big Ten

Spotlight: UCLA. Yes, the Bruins are undefeated and in the midst of the most remarkable turnaround of the campaign after winning just three games last season. But the film doesn't match the record, and that's something the coaches and former players in the committee meeting room are likely to point out. UCLA is No. 18 in total efficiency and No. 41 in offensive efficiency. Backup quarterback Ty Dieffenbach just completed his second start, and he has thrown two touchdowns and one interception. The committee will give the Bruins credit for continuing to find ways to win -- and they should beat Nevada on Halloween and improve to 7-0 heading into the first committee ranking of the season. But road trips to Minnesota and Michigan next month will reveal whether UCLA's offense can keep it up.

The enigma: Ohio State. The Buckeyes are a mystery at quarterback until proven otherwise, and the selection committee will have one game of real data without injured starting quarterback Julian Sayin to evaluate before its first ranking. So, what happens if Ohio State falls at USC after having a bye week to prepare? It's not as if teams get a hall pass to lose because of an injury, but the committee will take it into account if Ohio State drops a cross-country game with a true freshman making his first start against a struggling but talented team. How that contest unfolds will matter, but the bottom line is that Ohio State needs to look like a national title contender to be ranked one by the committee.

If the playoff were today

Would be in: Ohio State, Indiana, UCLA

Wrong side of the bubble: None

Too early to tell: Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, USC, Wisconsin

Out: Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Oregon, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, Washington

SEC

Spotlight: Georgia. Saturday's game against Florida in Atlanta will reveal whether Georgia's Oct. 17 home loss to Auburn was an anomaly or a more accurate indication of the Bulldogs' place in the playoff. Georgia's Oct. 10 win at Alabama is its lone victory against a ranked opponent. And the Crimson Tide are only the second team Georgia has defeated with a winning record (along with 4-3 Oklahoma). The back half of the season is far more challenging for the Dawgs, with three straight games looming against ranked teams (Florida, at Ole Miss and Nov. 14 versus Missouri). Georgia ranks No. 3 in the country in total efficiency; but it is No. 34 in strength of schedule, last in the SEC. Georgia has the best chance of any team to reach the SEC title game (69.2%), followed by Kentucky (32.8%).

The enigma: Florida. If the Gators beat Georgia on Saturday, they will have one of the best résumés, with wins against Ole Miss, Texas and Georgia. That would likely be enough for the selection committee to catapult the Gators into their first CFP ranking and honor the head-to-head victories against that trio. Following Florida's 52-28 drubbing of Ole Miss on Sept. 26, the Gators had a 4-0 start and appeared poised at a chance for a special season. But back-to-back losses to Missouri and South Carolina raised concerns about Florida's playoff legitimacy. The Gators' win at Texas, though, was impactful, but was it enough for the committee to honor the head-to-head wins in spite of two lopsided defeats to average teams? A victory against Georgia would answer that.

If the playoff were today

Would be in: Georgia, Kentucky, Texas, Ole Miss

Wrong side of the bubble: LSU, Tennessee, Alabama, Florida

Too early to tell: Missouri

Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Mississippi State, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

Independent

Would be in: Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish were on a well-timed bye week following their loss at BYU, and they will face Navy on Saturday before hosting one of the biggest games of the season on Nov. 7 against Miami. If Notre Dame loses to the Hurricanes and finishes as a two-loss team, there's no guarantee the Irish will earn a spot in the playoff. Notre Dame's strength of schedule is currently ranked No. 41, and it might not improve too much, even with Miami and SMU looming. Notre Dame's remaining schedule strength is ranked No. 47. If Notre Dame runs the table, though, it would have impressive wins against Wisconsin, Miami and SMU -- a team that has quietly been making a run toward the ACC championship game. That one-loss résumé for the Irish would make a strong case for first-round bye placement.

Group of 6

Spotlight: Boise State. The Broncos continue to own the Group of 6 spot, with a 47.6% chance to reach the playoff -- a far stronger possibility than the next-best option, New Mexico, which has a 20% chance, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. It's not a slam dunk, though. Boise State will host a very talented Oregon State team on Nov. 14 and face arguably the most talented freshman in the country in Beavers wide receiver Jesse Legree, who leads the nation in receiving yards (1,040), touchdown catches (14) and receiving yards per game (148.6). The Beavers' two losses were to Houston and Texas Tech. If Boise State doesn't win that game, it also would have two losses -- at Oregon and to Oregon State. The committee would value the head-to-head result, but would it choose a two-loss Group of 6 team over a one-loss contender with a much weaker schedule? The FPI gives Boise State a 71.4% chance to beat Oregon State.

Enigma: New Mexico. Like Boise State, New Mexico has a road loss to a respectable Power 4 opponent, as the Lobos fell 14-6 at Oklahoma on Sept. 19. It was hardly an embarrassing performance, and New Mexico has won four straight since then. With James Madison's loss last week, New Mexico has a chance to enter the conversation. The problem is that the Lobos' remaining strength of schedule is ranked No. 107, which is a red flag in the committee meeting room. Boise State's ranking is No. 88, and Oregon State's is No. 73. The FPI gives New Mexico at least an 82% chance to win each of its remaining games, though; and Oregon State and Boise State still have to play each other.

If the playoff were today

Would be in: Boise State

Wrong side of the bubble: New Mexico, UTSA, Oregon State

Bracket

Based on the rankings in this week's projection, the seeding would be:

First-round byes

No. 1 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 3 Georgia (SEC champ)
No. 4 BYU (Big 12 champ)

First-round games

On campus, Dec. 18 and 19

No. 12 Boise State (highest Group of 6) at No. 5 Notre Dame
No. 11 Ole Miss at No. 6 Indiana
No. 10 Texas at No. 7 Utah
No. 9 Kentucky at No. 8 UCLA

Quarterfinal games

Vrbo Fiesta Bowl on Dec. 30, and Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl, Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic and Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential on Jan. 1.

No. 12 Boise State/No. 5 Notre Dame winner vs. No. 4 BYU
No. 11 Ole Miss/No. 6 Indiana winner vs. No. 3 Georgia
No. 10 Texas/No. 7 Utah winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 9 Kentucky/No. 8 UCLA winner vs. No. 1 Miami