U.S. equity investor risk appetite rebounds, but market outlook remains muted

U.S. investment managers have become more willing to take risks after sentiment weakened in September, but expectations for near-term equity market returns remain subdued, according to data shared by Daily Chartbook.

A Daily Chartbook post on X summarizing the survey said the rebound was led by technology stocks and that muted return expectations reflect concerns over rates, fiscal policy and geopolitics.

The survey tracks two gauges over the next 30 days: risk appetite and expected U.S. equity market performance. Both are reported as a net balance, meaning the share of respondents with a positive view minus the share with a negative one. A reading of zero means views are evenly split.

Responses are weighted by strength. Those reporting only a “slight” positive or negative view count as half a response, while “strong” views count as one and a half.

Risk appetite recovered after weakening in September. The charts showed expected market performance remained close to neutral, rather than pointing to strong expectations of gains or losses.

Both measures have fluctuated sharply since 2021, repeatedly moving between positive and negative territory. Risk appetite has dropped to around minus 30% or lower several times since 2022. Expected market performance fell to around minus 49% in late 2025 before recovering toward neutral.

Equity fundamentals were the strongest positive contributor to expected U.S. equity returns over the next 30 days, at roughly plus 48% on a net-balance basis, according to the survey compiled in October 2026. Shareholder returns followed at about plus 26%, narrowly ahead of the U.S. macroeconomic environment at around plus 25%.

The global macroeconomic environment made a smaller negative contribution of about minus 8%. The political environment was the largest drag, at roughly minus 66%, followed by central bank policy at around minus 50%. Government fiscal policy contributed about minus 24%, and equity valuations relative to historical levels about minus 23%.

The findings point to a recovery in investment managers’ willingness to take risks, but not a matching surge in confidence about near-term gains. Equity fundamentals and shareholder returns support the outlook, while the political environment and central bank policy continue to weigh on it.