Australia's 'quite striking' move towards US defies trend

As a key ally of the United States, Britain had hoped to avoid the scenario that played out last week at RAF Fairford.

For months its leaders tried to support the US without being drawn directly into its war with Iran.

Then an alleged plot emerged near the British air base used by US bombers conducting missions in the Middle East.

Six men were arrested on suspicion of terror and explosives offences — but all, including a British-Iranian national, have since been released on bail.

British Prime Minister Andy Burnham publicly tied Iran to the incident — saying there were "strong indications" Iran had played a role.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi denied the allegation.

Mystery has continued to ensue as a British counter-terrorism operation plays out but overnight US President Donald Trump gave the clearest indication yet that the US believs that Iran was involved, after quietly ordering the nation's entire bomber fleet to be moved out of the UK.

"We actually know the people who made the threat," Mr Trump said.

US vice-president JD Vance added to the narrative: "We do feel with some confidence that the Iranians are … trying to do what the Iranian state has done for 49 years, which is engage in acts of terrorism against the United States and against a lot of other people as well," he said.

Elisabeth Braw is a senior fellow at the international affairs think tank The Atlantic Council, specialising in 'grey zone' conflict — the murky space where states can threaten or disrupt rivals without firing a shot.

"The fact that a terrorist attack was suspected of having been planned against the UK was really alarming and troubling," Ms Braw told 7.30.

Ms Braw said the scenario is part of the reason why Britain was "hesitant" to allow the US military to use their bases.

"The government felt that having the US use UK military bases for its operations in the war would indirectly draw Britain into the war,"

she said.

"There is a risk of terrorist incidents around military installations."

Allies 'more vulnerable'

That risk is something Australian analysts are acutely aware of.

Gulf nations like Saudi Arabia, Oman and the United Arab Emirates have already experienced attacks because of their alliances with the US.

Emma Shortis is director of progressive think tank, the International and Security Affairs Program at the Australia Institute, and says those allies are already concerned.

"That is leading to what I think is a pretty dramatic reconsideration on the part of those allies and also a potentially pretty dramatic geopolitical realignment in the Middle East itself," she said.

Australia has increased its partnership with the US, not just through the AUKUS agreement but through an announcement last month to increase America's presence at military bases in Australia.

Ms Shortis says Australia doing the opposite even as other traditional US allies like Canada — which is in a trade war with the US — reconsider their alliance, is a questionable decision.

"It's quite striking that the Australian government doesn't seem to be doing that," she told 7.30.

"The Iran War has made it clear that the presence of US in other countries doesn't make them safer ... in the case of Iran it's made traditional allies more vulnerable."

However, Ms Braw said the presence of US forces could bring security to the nations they were in.

"The first thing to remember is that having the Americans, the US armed forces around in our countries is a good thing." she told 7.30.

"They bring security, they're there to help and they do help ...  [it] brings a larger measure of security to our countries, whether it be the UK, Germany, or Australia or South Korea."

The Department of Defence told 7.30 it was remaining vigilant in the face of any potential threat.

"Defence employs robust, layered security measures to protect its personnel, establishments and capabilities," a Defence spokesperson said.

Into a 'power war'?

New research by the Nautilus Institute found the US military and defence corporations now have access to around 70 per cent of Australia's defence facilities, reflecting what researchers describe as an unprecedented level of military integration.

Professor Richard Tanter, who led the research, is concerned by the depth of the arrangement.

"This is not a matter of US penetration of a small number of Australian bases, but a pattern of saturation of the Australian defence eco-system by US access and influence," Professor Tanter said.

"That raises questions about Australian strategic autonomy."

However 

Those concerns are shared by Albert Palazzo, who is former Director of War Studies for the Australian Army.

"Our political class is well aware that the world is changing," Mr Palazzo told 7.30.

"There are forces out there that are redesigning the power balance ... when things change you're forced to do something different.

"But we are not preparing [the] ADF to participate in conflicts ... instead we're preparing it to be a subset of the US military and we're allowing them in our country to project power against China.

"It's short-sighted.

"We're inviting ourselves into the great power war and we're the proverbial mouse between two elephants, and when those elephants fight — it's never good for the mouse."

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