Chalmers says global economic turmoil will drive budget cuts, but Australia should avoid recession

Jim Chalmers has warned of “very substantial and intensifying” economic pressures on the horizon but insists he’s not planning for a recession, as he prepares to find new ways to cut the budget ahead of its mid-year update.

The treasurer on Sunday called on critics of government spending to name the services that should be cut, as he points the finger at the private sector for driving up inflation in Australia amid the protracted conflict in the Middle East.

Chalmers said the US-led eight-month war against Iran, which has severely curtailed global oil supplies from the region, has been “disastrous” for cost-of-living pressures.

He also said there was “very substantial and intensifying pressure” on the federal budget.

“No serious observer of what’s going on right now would conclude anything other than [that],” he told ABC’s Insiders. “The longer this thing drags out, the bigger the impact on the global economy and on the Australian economy, whether it’s … on inflation or downward pressure on growth.

“We’re not anticipating [a recession] here in Australia, but certainly it is weighing on global growth, and we’re not immune from that.”

Inflation has jumped to 4% in the year to August, from 3.5%, while the Reserve Bank lifted its key interest rate to 4.6%, the highest figure since 2011.

Chalmers said the government was working on finding further savings to the budget in the mid-year economic and fiscal outlook, due in December, after cuts of $44.9bn over four years were identified in the May budget.

The treasurer said cuts to government spending weren’t the only factor driving up inflation in the economy, and cutting larger sums would impact essential services.

“If people don’t want us to strengthen Medicare, for example, or cut income taxes, or provide cost-of-living relief in other ways, then they should nominate where that should be cut,” he said on Sunday.

Beyond the war’s impact on driving up prices in Australia, Chalmers said the private sector was partly to blame.

“For every $5 of demand in our economy, $1 is public, $4 is private,” he said.

“Budget settings are not the primary driver of prices in our economy. There’s a whole bunch of other things going on.”

But the shadow treasurer, Tim Wilson, said Chalmers should be sacked, claiming his decisions have increased inflation to generate tax windfalls.

“He’s actively stoked inflation, and he’s fundamentally undermined the success of this country, and now he’s announced today he’s on a sort of Argo-style salvation trip for investment, because he’s created a problem of sovereign risk,” he told News24.

The assistant science and digital technology minister, Andrew Charlton, said the consequences of having a recession, which would ease inflation, would be devastating.

“If you have a recession, you throw hundreds of thousands of people on to the unemployment queues, and that pulls a huge amount of demand out of the economy,” he told News24.

“It’s pretty easy to have low interest rates and low inflation if your economy goes through a recession.

“As a Labor government, that is a big priority for us to make sure that we don’t go into a recession that drives a lot of people into unemployment.”

Chalmers will travel to Japan for meetings with business leaders and the country’s finance minister, in an effort to boost investment and improve fuel security.