Emmys 2026 Prediction: Which Show Will Win Outstanding Comedy Series

Published Sep 12, 2026, 10:30 AM EDT

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It's almost time for the 2026 Emmys, and the race for Outstanding Comedy Series is a contentious one. Unlike this year's Outstanding Lead Actor and Lead Actress in a Comedy Series categories, there isn't a solitary frontrunner ahead of everybody else.

The official Emmy nominees for this year's Outstanding Comedy Series are Abbott Elementary, The Bear, Hacks, Margo's Got Money Troubles, Nobody Wants This, Only Murders in the Building, Shrinking, and Widow's Bay. A mix of familiar and new shows, the winner comes down to a stalwart Television Academy favorite and the buzziest watercooler show of the year. See who wins when the 78th Primetime Emmy Awards ceremony airs on Monday, September 14.

8. Nobody Wants This (Netflix)

Erin Simkin/Netflix

Of all the Outstanding Comedy Series nominees, Nobody Wants This has the fewest total nominations this year: two. Notably missing from the Emmys docket are the show's stars, Adam Brody and Kristen Bell, both of whom were nominated in their respective lead acting categories last year.

Though the Netflix rom-com series became a smash sleeper hit when it premiered in 2024, the reception for season 2 was considerably cooler, earning an 80% critical rating on Rotten Tomatoes as opposed to season 1's 95%. The fact that Nobody Wants This made it into this category again is a shock, especially because the Television Academy typically snubs romance series, but it has next to no shot at winning.

7. Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)

Only Murders in the Building arrives at the race with five total Emmy nominations. This is the second year that both Steve Martin and Selena Gomez were left off the ballot, with Martin Short serving as the sole acting nod for the series, a telling sign that voter interest in the Hulu mystery-comedy series has waned.

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Still, as a safe and starry pick, Only Murders in the Building has received an Outstanding Comedy Series nomination for every one of its five seasons, and that's not likely to change. However, unless there's a major shakeup, Only Murders is destined to remain a perennial "always a bridesmaid, never a bride" nominee at the Emmys.

6. The Bear (FX)

Though The Bear is no longer the critical or awards darling it once was, FX's restaurant dramedy series managed to land a respectable eight nominations this year. In fact, it already secured an award at the 2026 Primetime Creative Arts Emmys ceremony, with Rob Reiner winning posthumously for Outstanding Guest Actor in a Comedy Series.

However, this award was seen more as a way to honor the beloved late filmmaker than the show itself, and The Bear's chances at winning this award are better reflected in its major acting nominations — or lack thereof. Though Ayo Edebiri was nominated in the lead actress category, previous winners Liza Colón-Zayes, Ebon Moss-Bachrach, and, most tellingly, Jeremy Allen White, were all snubbed.

While The Bear may have won this category once before, the general consensus is that the show, which has become much more dour, dramatic, and depressing in recent seasons, is committing category fraud by continuing to nominate itself as a comedy series. It's a safe bet that the Academy will say "No, chef" to The Bear ​​​​​​come September 14.

5. Abbott Elementary (ABC)

MovieStillsDB

ABC's Abbott Elementary arrives at the 2026 Emmys with a respectable seven nominations. Though the public school mockumentary sitcom hasn't won an award in three seasons, the fact that it continues to be nominated in major categories — Quinta Brunson, Janelle James, and Tyler James Williams all received acting nods — is a feather in its cap.

Unlike Only Murders in the Building, the fact that Abbott Elementary has never won an Outstanding Comedy Series award may work in its favor. Of all the nominees, Abbott is one of the only full-on comedy series, not to mention the lone network show, which may appeal to traditional voters. However, that won't be enough to secure its victory this year.

4. Margo's Got Money Troubles (Apple TV)

One of only two new shows in this year's Outstanding Comedy Series race, Margo's Got Money Troubles has eight Emmy nominations. Apple TV's comedy-drama series about a young single mom turning to OnlyFans to support her newborn, Margo's Got Money Troubles was heavily praised for its phenomenal performances from Elle Fanning, Michelle Pfeiffer, and Nick Offerman. Indeed, all were recognized with Emmy nods, along with the show itself.

However, with Apple TV renewing Margo's Got Money Troubles for season 2, it may have hurt the show's chances at Emmys glory. This year's Outstanding Limited or Anthology series race lacks a runaway hit like recent previous winners Adolescence and Baby Reindeer, so had Margo remained a miniseries, it may very well have been a frontrunner in this category. On the flip side, the comedy series competition is too stiff for the show to break through.

3. Shrinking (Apple TV)

At 10 Emmy nominations, Shrinking is this year's dark horse. Though Apple TV's psychotherapy dramedy series is beloved by both critics and the entertainment industry alike, it has yet to win a single Emmy award despite 18 nominations across its three seasons. This may change at the 2026 Emmys — though likely not with Outstanding Comedy Series. Instead, Shrinking's first Emmy win is expected to come via a supporting actor award for Harrison Ford, an honor many consider overdue.

Unfortunately, considerable goodwill only gets Shrinking so far, and it's not enough to carry the series past the loud buzz for acclaimed newcomer Widow's Bay or Hacks' hugely lauded swan song season. Shrinking's best bet is to continue to deliver high-quality seasons and hope that Emmy voters see fit to award it in its own final outing, whenever that may be.

2. Widow's Bay (Apple TV)

Widow's Bay took the streaming world by storm when it premiered in April 2026, and the Apple TV comedy-horror series proved it's not messing around when it earned 19 nominations — an impressive feat for a show's first season. Of these nominations, Widow's Bay has already taken home eight awards at the Primetime Creative Arts Emmys, which is an excellent precursor to the big ceremony on September 14, as is lead actor Matthew Rhys being heavily favored to win his category.

It really is a neck-and-neck race between Widow's Bay and Hacks, and the former may very well have enough hype and momentum to pull out a win. Had this not been Hacks' final season, Widow's Bay would have had the advantage, but as it stands, this is the last chance the Television Academy has to reward the revered HBO Max comedy, and it's likely they'll take it.

1. Hacks (HBO Max)

Hacks ends its incredible run with a whopping 24 Emmy nominations — the most for a comedy series this year. It's also an excellent sign that Jean "just hand her the award now" Smart and Hannah Einbinder are joined by first-time acting nominees Paul W. Downs and Megan Stalter in the major categories.

Hacks' path to victory certainly isn't guaranteed, especially because the HBO Max show has only managed to score one Outstanding Comedy Series award in its run. However, that win was a huge upset, as Hacks stole the award from the odds-on favorite, The Bear.

This win was seen as voters putting their foot down on a traditional comedy series winning the award, a sentiment that may carry over to this year's ceremony, particularly with Academy members who don't care for Widow's Bay​​​​​​'s horror elements. Furthermore, not only is Hacks arguably the funniest show on this ballot, but its final season managed to be hilarious while also delivering sharp commentary on very real issues plaguing the entertainment industry, namely AI. Hacks ended on a high note on HBO Max, and it's set to do the same at the 2026 Emmys.