Will Democrats sway ‘unshackled’ Trump’s Russia-Ukraine stance after midterm rout?

The Republicans’ defeat in the US midterm elections was watched closely in Russia, where some observers are predicting it could herald more support for Ukraine when the Democrats take over Congress in January.

But if the Kremlin is hearing the ticking of a clock on its nearly five-year-old full-scale invasion of its neighbour, it seemingly remains unperturbed.

Asked if the election’s outcome could stymie US attempts to help negotiate a settlement between Moscow and Kyiv, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov voiced hope that US President Donald Trump will continue to pursue his peace efforts.

“There is groundwork already in place and another round of trilateral negotiations is set to take place very soon,” Peskov said of talks planned for Tuesday and Wednesday involving Russian, Ukrainian and US representatives in Abu Dhabi, the United Arab Emirates.

He also praised the “successful humanitarian peace-building efforts” by first lady Melania Trump, adding that “we hope that all of this will continue”. Last week’s limited ceasefire around the Russia-occupied city of Oleshky, brokered with her help, allowed for the delivery of humanitarian aid and the evacuation of some residents.

Peskov shrugged off a question from reporters on whether the new Congress would challenge Trump’s stance on Russia and Ukraine. He called it an “internal matter” for the US.

In recent months, Trump’s actions appeared to favour Moscow.

Last month, he struck a diesel fuel import deal with Russia in a stunning reversal of years of US pressure on the Kremlin, to the dismay of Ukraine and its European allies.

Trump also issued an executive order to put on hold sweeping new sanctions that clamped down on the Russian economy, telling Congress the pause was in the national interest. Lawmakers from both parties blasted Trump’s move as benefiting Russian President Vladimir Putin.

At the same time, Ukraine reported a throttling of Starshield, the military-grade version of the Starlink satellite internet service owned by Elon Musk’s SpaceX. Trump denied being behind the brief slowing of Starshield, but the move to limit the system that serves as the backbone of Ukraine’s drone operations and battlefield communications was widely seen as part of Washington’s efforts to pressure Kyiv.

Kyiv desperately needs to replenish its supplies of US-made Patriot interceptors to fend off Russia’s ballistic missile attacks. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has made repeated requests for Washington to speed up delivery of the defensive systems, but US stockpiles have been exhausted by the Iran war and the US has prioritised replenishing its own arsenals.

On October 30, the Trump administration said it had approved a proposed US$2.1 billion sale of Patriot interceptors for Ukraine after Kyiv had accused the Pentagon of delaying delivery.

Trump also appeared to echo the Kremlin’s view that Zelensky was an obstacle to peace while saying Putin was more open to a deal.

Trump on Thursday conferred with Putin’s envoy Kirill Dmitriev, who attended a White House ceremony with the first lady recognising last week’s humanitarian truce. The president did not meet any of the Ukrainian officials also at the event but hinted that some kind of grand deal about European security was in the works.

Many in Russia argue that the Democrats’ victory could put congressional pressure on Trump to tread more carefully and toughen his stand on Russia.

Dmitry Medvedev, who served as Russian president in 2008-12, predicted that Trump would be less inclined to press Ukraine when a new Congress is seated.

“He doesn’t need an extra confrontation with Democrats,” said Medvedev, who now serves as deputy head of Russia’s Security Council.

There has been strong bipartisan support for Ukraine, raising the prospect of vetoproof passage of more aid to Kyiv or tough new sanctions on Moscow.

On Wednesday, Zelensky told German broadcaster ZDF that while there has been backing for Kyiv from both parties, the Democrats “speak very clearly about supporting Ukraine”.

Abbas Gallyamov, a former Putin speech-writer-turned-political analyst who lives abroad, argued that his old boss had missed a chance to strike a deal on Ukraine before the Democrats won and now could face a less cooperative Washington.

“Putin’s prospects have significantly worsened,” Gallyamov said in a commentary. “He thought that the time was on his side and wasn’t in a hurry to use the window of opportunity that had opened after Trump’s victory, and now this window is starting to close.”

Some policy experts, however, cautioned against expectations of a dramatic shift.

The Democrats could put more funding for Ukraine on the agenda and increase pressure on Trump over the diesel deal or Russia sanctions waivers, but hard limits on the president’s power are unlikely, said Jorn Fleck, senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Europe Centre.

“Even with a strong majority in both chambers of Congress, Democrats will struggle to impose meaningful limits on Trump’s conduct of foreign policy, given his constitutional powers and willingness to push the envelope,” Fleck said in a commentary. “Unshackled from having to face voters at the ballot box again, Trump may shift into deal-making overdrive to cement his legacy.”

Konstantin Kosachev, a deputy speaker of the upper house of the Russian parliament, argued that Trump’s executive powers in the foreign policy sphere would allow him to pursue his course regardless of congressional opposition.

He said if authorities in Kyiv believed that the Republicans’ defeat would make the Trump administration more receptive to Ukraine’s requests, they could be mistaken.

“They will not find a more pliable or constrained Trump,” Kosachev said. “Rather, they will face a more resolute one, who is no longer looking over his shoulder at upcoming elections.”