Flying To Dubai Cheaper Than Mumbai-Patna Flight This Diwali, Thanks To Wars

One of the biggest collateral impacts of the Middle East war is being borne by airlines. But passengers travelling during Diwali and Chhath are also paying part of the price. Higher aviation fuel costs, a weaker rupee and prolonged airspace disruptions have pushed airlines into deep losses this year.

To offset some of these pressures, carriers have raised fares and surcharges on several routes. As a result, ahead of Diwali and Chhath, airfares have surged on key festival routes such as Delhi-Patna, Mumbai-Patna and Hyderabad-Ranchi.

Airfares Soar On Key Routes

The cheapest available ticket from Mumbai to Patna on Diwali eve, November 7, costs Rs 23,333 as of October 31. In contrast, a Mumbai-Dubai ticket costs nearly half as much, according to Paytm Travel prices. Notably, the air distance between Mumbai and Patna is about 1,470 km, compared with nearly 1,930 km between Mumbai and Dubai. The cheapest Bengaluru-Patna ticket is priced at Rs 19,543, while a Mumbai-Lucknow ticket costs Rs 14,251.

Air Transport Output Shrinks

The newly launched Index of Services Production (ISP) for Air Transport shows that sectoral output contracted for four consecutive months. Output shrank 2.8 per cent year-on-year in May 2026, six per cent in June, 8.4 per cent in July and 9.6 per cent in August. ISP is India's first high-frequency indicator dedicated to measuring services-sector output. It tracks short-term changes in the volume of output produced by the formal services sector relative to a specified base year.

Domestic Flyers Decline

Domestic passenger traffic has weakened sharply since the conflict began. According to DGCA data, SpiceJet's domestic passenger traffic plunged 70 per cent year-on-year in September 2026, while Air India's fell 15 per cent and IndiGo's five per cent.

SpiceJet carried about 2.4 lakh domestic passengers in September 2025. That number dropped to around 72,891 in September 2026. Air India's domestic traffic fell from 20.1 lakh to 17 lakh passengers during the same period, while IndiGo's declined from 81.3 lakh to 77.3 lakh.

International Travel Also Takes Hit

Passenger traffic to and from India has also weakened. International passenger traffic fell nine per cent year-on-year during April-June 2026, according to DGCA data. Passenger arrivals into India dropped from 93.4 lakh in the corresponding quarter of 2025 to 85.6 lakh in 2026. Outbound traffic also declined, with departures falling from 95.8 lakh to 86.4 lakh passengers.

Aviation Industry Faces Mounting Losses

The Indian aviation industry is estimated to have reported a net loss of Rs 280-300 billion in FY26, primarily due to slower passenger traffic growth, higher ATF prices and foreign-exchange losses stemming from the sharp depreciation of the rupee, according to ICRA's Aviation Outlook for October 2026.

ICRA said the Middle East conflict, which began in late February 2026, is expected to keep passenger traffic growth subdued in FY27. It added that a weaker rupee, elevated fuel costs and rising aircraft lease rentals could push industry losses to Rs 360-380 billion in FY27, as airlines may not be able to fully pass on these costs through fare hikes.