Sure you're not thinking about a snap election, Andy? Another megapoll shows Labour recovering as Reform surge recedes

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By JAMES TAPSFIELD, UK POLITICAL EDITOR

Published: 10:54 BST, 27 September 2026 | Updated: 10:57 BST, 27 September 2026

Labour conference is being stalked by snap election rumours despite Andy Burnham declaring the idea 'dead'.

Another megapoll has suggested the party's position has significantly improved as the gathering in Liverpool begins.

The More in Common research found that if the country voted currently Labour would have 250 MPs, some 140 more than the firm estimated in July.

That would be far ahead of Reform on 147 seats, 146 fewer than the snapshot from just three months ago - although still a huge jump from 2024. The Tories are now seen coming in close behind on 125.

Although Labour would still be well short of a Commons majority if the poll was reflected at a real election, they could govern with support from the Lib Dems' 63 MPs and 27 from the SNP.

The prospect of such a 'rainbow coalition' has caused alarm on the Right, with fears Mr Burnham could offer major concessions such as a fresh Scots independence referendum. 

Accounting for tactical voting, Labour could secure an extra 25 seats, according to More in Common. That would mean it could have a majority solely with backing from the Lib Dems. 

More in Common research found that if the country voted currently Labour would have 250 MPs, some 140 more than the firm estimated in July

Mr Burnham used a marathon round of pre-conference broadcast interviews on Friday to say he was 'knocking dead' rumours of an election before 2029

Those dynamics could mean Reform falling to 117 seats, and being leapfrogged by the Tories on 132. 

Gambling on a ballot now would be a massive risk for the PM, with the Government currently holding an historic majority and nearly three years left in the Parliament.

Advocates of the idea hope that Labour would improve its position during a campaign. 

Mr Burnham used a marathon round of pre-conference broadcast interviews on Friday to say he was 'knocking dead' rumours of an election before 2029.

Speaking to the BBC in Liverpool this morning he suggested a social care plan will need to be in place before a ballot, as he is determined to put one in the manifesto. 

The More in Common research uses the 'MRP' technique of mapping poll findings on to the demographic characteristics of individual areas. 

Nearly 16,000 adults were interviewed between August 21 and September 21. 

Luke Tryl, More in Common's UK Director, said: 'On the eve of last year's Labour Party Conference, our MRP projected Reform could get close to a three figure majority, while both Labour and the Conservatives dropped to below triple figures.

Fast forward to today, and it is clear the electoral landscape has transformed dramatically with Andy Burnham as Prime Minister.'

However, he highlighted that 'volatility has become the new watch word of our electoral system', with almost half of the seats estimated to be won on margins of less than 5 per cent.

The snapshot reflects a shift in support for parties since Mr Burnham became PM

A year ago Reform were seen as on track for a landslide victory 

'The other clear message of these numbers is that tactical voting, of the sort we have already seen play out in by-elections, could have an outsized impact on the numbers – giving a Lib-Lab coalition the numbers for a majority and allowing the Tories to leapfrog Reform,' Mr Tryl added.

Mr Tryl said the poll suggested Mr Burnham was 'sensible' to rule out an early election.

'While Labour is off its death bed, the party's recovery is far from complete,' he said. 

'To call a poll the Prime Minister would have had to be willing to risk the careers of scores of his colleagues including his Chancellor and Foreign Secretary, while even small shifts in the current numbers would have left him vulnerable to having a stint in Downing Street only longer than that of Liz Truss.'