Bersatu out to draw Malay votes away from BN-PN, says analyst

Bersatu’s role in the Melaka election next month is seen as a test of the party’s ability to split Malay votes and deny victory for the Barisan Nasional-Perikatan Nasional alliance, says a political analyst.

Azmi Hassan of Akademi Nusantara said Bersatu has entered the election seeking to prove to Pakatan Harapan that it would be a meaningful ally for the next general election (GE16), specifically through its ability to draw Malay votes away from BN and PN.

Azmi said splitting the Malay votes could result in a PH victory, especially in the three mixed seats of Ayer Keroh, Pengkalan Batu, and Kelebang where Bersatu and PH are both in the fray.

“I think Bersatu is trying to show that it can steal some Malay votes from the BN and PN candidates. It is trying to achieve this so that the cooperation between PH and Bersatu would be extended to GE16,” he told FMT.

PH is contesting 24 of the 28 seats in the Melaka polls, while Bersatu is vying for eight, setting up four clashes with its electoral partner.

Malay voters form a slight majority in Pengkalan Batu and Kelebang, with significant Chinese and Indian voters in all three constituencies. Both seats were won by BN in the 2021 election with slim majorities of 131 and 876 votes, respectively.

Ayer Keroh, where PH will also clash with Bersatu – is a DAP stronghold where Chinese voters comprise 47.6% of the electorate, followed by Malays (42.4%) and Indians (8.3%). DAP won the seat with a convincing 5,624-vote majority in 2021, when BN and PN clashed.

Melaka PH chief Adly Zahari had welcomed the contests with Bersatu in the Nov 14 polls, saying multi-cornered contests could give the coalition a greater advantage compared with straight fights with the BN-PN alliance.

Bersatu’s ‘spoiler’ role?

Syaza Shukri of the International Islamic University Malaysia doubted Bersatu’s ability to siphon enough Malay votes from the BN-PN alliance to allow PH to win the four seats.

“Even if Bersatu could pull 10% of the Malay votes (in Pengkalan Batu and Kelebang), that would still not be enough since Malays make up 60% to 70% of the voters there,” she said.

Syaza said Bersatu may also make a minimal impact in Ayer Keroh, if BN and PN can successfully garner the Malay votes, and Chinese voters do not turn out in droves to cast their ballots.

She believed Bersatu was clashing with PH to test which party was more appealing to voters, especially the non-Malays, but said this would only benefit BN-PN.

“I think Bersatu has come to accept its role as a spoiler,” she said, citing the party’s fate in the Johor and Negeri Sembilan state polls earlier this year.

Bersatu contested 16 seats under the PN banner in the Johor election, and 24 seats in Negeri Sembilan, but suffered heavy defeats in all the contests.

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