NBA 2026/27 Season Preview: Parity or the start of a new duopoly?

It has been the age of parity in the National Basketball Association (NBA). In 2019, the Toronto Raptors defeated the Golden State Warriors, winners of three of the previous four titles, to lift the Larry O’Brien Trophy, the NBA’s championship prize, for the first time. In the eight seasons since, the NBA has had eight different winners: the Raptors, the Los Angeles Lakers, the Milwaukee Bucks, the Warriors again, the Denver Nuggets, the Boston Celtics, the Oklahoma City Thunder and, this June, the New York Knicks.

No team has managed to defend its title in that time, let alone establish a dynasty. The Warriors dominated the 2010s. The Lakers and the San Antonio Spurs between them won eight of the 11 titles from 2000 to 2010. Above them all stand Michael Jordan’s Chicago Bulls, who won six titles in the 1990s.

This is partly because of money. Much like the IPL’s auction purse, the NBA caps how much teams can spend on salaries. Since 2023, when the league and the players’ union signed a new collective bargaining agreement, the NBA has introduced much steeper penalties for teams that spend beyond certain salary thresholds, called ‘aprons’. These go well beyond the ‘luxury tax’ that big spenders already paid. In effect, the NBA has made it punishing for a team to keep several highly paid players on one roster. 

As a result, star players now circulate across the league. The situation is a far cry from 2016, when the Warriors, fresh off a record 73-win season (out of 82 games), could bring in Kevin Durant, a former Most Valuable Player.

The NBA’s best teams today are crafted as much on careful planning as on coaching and talent on the floor. They keep their salary sheets manageable and preserve ‘optionality’: the ability to add players through the NBA draft, an annual system in which teams pick young talent from colleges and overseas leagues, with the weaker teams getting to pick earlier. They can also trade ‘draft capital’, or rights to future picks, for players who fit a coach’s system built around one or two superstars. They also use the ‘free-agent’ and trade markets opportunistically to acquire the superstar(s) in the first place.

This was particularly true of the reigning champions, the New York Knicks. Their lynchpin, point guard Jalen Brunson, arrived as a free agent in 2022 after his previous team, the Dallas Mavericks, short-sightedly let him leave. The Knicks then put to use the draft picks they had stockpiled during their years away from contention. They traded players and picks for OG Anunoby, Josh Hart and Karl-Anthony Towns, and gave up five future first-round picks for Mikal Bridges, Brunson’s college teammate. 

After three seasons of near misses, the team changed its coach, hiring Mike Brown in 2025. Brown turned the team into a well-oiled machine that went on a historic run in the 2025-26 play-offs, including staging multiple comebacks from large point deficits in the NBA Finals and defeating the upstart San Antonio Spurs to lift its first NBA title since 1973.

🚨 THE 2026-27 NBA SEASON TIPS OFF TOMORROW AT 3 PM ET 🚨 NBA Champions raise a banner. Superstars debut with new teams. Rivalries pick up where they left off. Watch @AmericanExpress NBA Tip-Off on NBC and Peacock, ESPN and Prime! https://t.co/PDt3BfMqGh

— NBA (@NBA) October 19, 2026

Despite the ‘age of parity’, the Knicks are still fancied to emerge from the East as the NBA Finals contenders for the upcoming 2026-27 season. They have retained the core of their squad, losing just one key role player: the 7ft centre Mitchell Robinson, whose ability to grab rebounds on the offensive end is a ‘super skill’ that helped the Knicks in crucial moments. 

They have replaced him with another good rebounder, veteran Andre Drummond, although he is less efficient on the offensive end. With their starting five and a good bench still intact, the Knicks would hardly surprise anyone if they are still in the mix, deep into the post-season.

The strongest challenge to the Knicks’ bid to become the first team to defend the NBA title since 2018 is expected to come from the Western Conference, even if the East is far deeper. Two teams in the West have earned the right to be called championship favourites after registering the best regular-season records last season. 

The Thunder and the Spurs finished 64-18 and 62-20, respectively. The Spurs also reached the Finals in only the third season of their superstar, Victor Wembanyama, after beating the Thunder in a gruelling seven-game Western Conference Finals.

The Spurs and Thunder are built to contend now, and both have enough young talent and ‘optionality’ — in the form of future draft assets — to remain championship favourites for several seasons. The Thunder are led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, or SGA, the two-time reigning MVP and a point guard who can create and score almost at will. 

He is also a sound defender for his position. Complementing him are two more All-Stars — Chet Holmgren, a 7ft centre who can block shots and shoot accurately from long range, and Jalen Williams, a versatile forward returning from the hamstring injury that kept him out towards the end of last season’s Western Conference Finals.

Rounding out the Thunder is one of the league’s deepest supporting casts. Defenders such as Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace and Isaiah Hartenstein are complemented by able ball-handling scorers in guards, Ajay Mitchell and Jared McCain. Coach Mark Daigneault’s system features Thunder’s guards and forwards harassing opposing ball-handlers, jumping into passing lanes and turning steals into fast-break points. 

When games are tight at the end — the clutch moments — SGA’s one-on-one scoring usually sees them through. We can expect the Thunder to finish with the league’s best record for a third straight season. Their one Achilles heel, though, is their inability to match up against the Spurs, who beat them in four of five regular-season meetings and eight of 12 overall, including the playoffs in 2025-26.

Wembanyama stands 2.24 metres (7ft 4in) tall, with a wingspan of about 2.4 metres (8ft). He has already become one of the most prolific shot-blockers the league has seen, and he is still improving. His command of the ‘paint’ — the area right under the basket — and his uncanny timing have made it a no-go zone for opponents, even skilled scorers such as SGA. That gives the Spurs a huge defensive advantage. His teammates can guard aggressively, knowing that any opponent who gets past them must still deal with the ‘Alien’, as Wembanyama is nicknamed.

But Wembanyama’s defence alone has not made the Spurs contenders. Their young talent has also blossomed quickly. Dylan Harper, picked second in the 2025 draft behind the Dallas Mavericks’ gifted forward Cooper Flagg, played well beyond his years in the 2026 play-offs, scoring 25 points in the deciding game of the Finals. 

Victor Wembanyama has faced 547 different opponents in the regular season... and he's blocked 273 of them (49.9%) at least once 🤯 The NBA's block leader in all 3 of his seasons and the first-ever unanimous Kia NBA DPOY... Wemby and the Spurs host the Thunder tomorrow at 9:30pm/et on NBC & Peacock!

— NBA (@NBA) October 20, 2026

Blessed with an innate sense of angles, deceptive footwork and an array of moves near the basket, Harper is a wonderful finisher and a good passer. Coming off the bench throughout his rookie season, he also developed into a solid defender, even if his playmaking needed seasoning. 

Stephon Castle, now in his third season, is further along on defence, using his athleticism and strength to smother opponents on the perimeter. His knack for steering them towards the rim, where Wembanyama waits, has earned the American-French duo another nickname: ‘Area 51’.

The Spurs have a third stellar guard in the experienced De’Aaron Fox. The trio largely matched the Thunder’s guards talent for talent, while Wembanyama tipped the balance. Fox played the Finals with a high ankle sprain, and his output was underwhelming compared with Harper’s high-flying exploits. That has led many to wonder whether Harper will replace him in the starting line-up. Reports suggest coach Mitch Johnson will play all three together in line-ups this year. 

These are good problems to have for a young team already in contention. The Spurs also have useful forwards in Devin Vassell, Julian Champagnie and Keldon Johnson. They have added veteran Tobias Harris, who brings experience and a strong game close to the basket to a team that is now one of the favourites to win it all.

Four other Western teams are strong, but each lacks something that would allow it to truly challenge the Thunder and Spurs. The 2023 champions, the Denver Nuggets, still have the wizard Nikola Jokic, a centre whose passing, playmaking and shooting remain unmatched. 

His two-man game with guard Jamal Murray is still lethal, but beyond forwards Aaron Gordon and Cameron Johnson, the squad lacks depth and struggles on defence. Their main summer addition, DeMar DeRozan, brings playmaking and mid-range shooting but is a poor defender and, at 37, is getting old.

The Houston Rockets have the great scorer Kevin Durant, All-Star centre Alperen Sengun and young talent such as Amen Thompson. They flattered to deceive last season, largely because point guard Fred VanVleet missed the campaign with a knee ligament injury. 

Nikola Jokic (15) will once again be at the centre of the 2023 champion Denver Nuggets campaign with his passing, playmaking and shooting. | Photo Credit: Reuters

VanVleet is back, and the Rockets have added Marcus Smart and Bogdan Bogdanovic to shore up their guard ranks. If VanVleet has recovered well, Houston could threaten the Spurs-Thunder duopoly, but everything needs to click at once.

The Minnesota Timberwolves have been among the West’s contenders for several seasons, led by All-NBA guard Anthony Edwards and defensive anchor Rudy Gobert. This summer, they gave up two of their big men, Julius Randle and sharpshooting Naz Reid, in a four-team deal that brought in former All-Star guard LaMelo Ball from the Charlotte Hornets. Ball is a polarising player, though. He has dazzling passing and playmaking skills but is loose with the ball and lackadaisical on defence.

On paper, Ball taking over the playmaking frees Edwards to be the tip of the spear — a scorer and finisher — a job he can do with aplomb. But the bench is thin, and Randle’s replacement, Jonathan Kuminga, is erratic. The Wolves need their athletic young centre Joan Beringer to develop quickly, and guard Ayo Dosunmu to play at his peak. Still, the signs are promising.

The Los Angeles Lakers have one of the league’s most gifted playmakers in Luka Doncic. His shock arrival from Dallas in 2025 revived a franchise that was slowly declining, but he had to share playmaking duties with guard Austin Reaves and the great LeBron James in a squad not built around the Slovenian. Now James has left for the Philadelphia 76ers, and the Lakers have rebuilt to suit Doncic. Shot-blocking centre Walker Kessler was a key off-season addition, a rim-running centre archetype who can finish Doncic’s lobs and play pick-and-roll with him. 

So were sharpshooting big man Sandro Mamukelashvili and defensive role players such as Matisse Thybulle. Collectively, though, they remain weak defensively and are unlikely to reach the Spurs’ and Thunder’s level. We can expect them to go as far as Doncic takes them.

The rest of the West is a mix of the fading, injury-prone Golden State Warriors, middling teams such as the Phoenix Suns and Portland Trail Blazers, and young upstarts such as the Utah Jazz, Dallas Mavericks and Memphis Grizzlies. The conference is top-heavy, with six strong teams, unlike the more evenly matched East.

Even as favourites, the Knicks face a crowded East. The 76ers have added not only James, the 41-year-old all-time great who is still effective, but also Jaylen Brown, an All-NBA wing who excels in attack and defence, whom they acquired by trading Paul George to Boston. Both players complement quick, twitchy point guard Tyrese Maxey and promising young guard VJ Edgecombe. 

But Philadelphia’s ceiling depends on whether the oft-injured centre Joel Embiid can show endurance in the playoffs. They have added a bevy of role players, too, but may need this season to gel before they can truly contend.

The Boston Celtics are well coached by Joe Mazzulla, who gets the best out of his players and runs a modern offence built around all-round three-point shooting. Despite trading Brown, largely for salary-cap reasons, they have plenty of smart and skilled players. Jayson Tatum, a perennial All-Star, is back from the Achilles tear he suffered in the 2025 playoffs. 

Los Angeles Lakers guard Luka Doncic (L) is one of the league’s most gifted players and his team will rely on him to take them deep. | Photo Credit: AP

Derrick White is a guard who blocks shots like a big man, while Payton Pritchard is a sharpshooter. Mitchell Robinson, prised away from the Knicks, shores up the frontline, and Paul George, skilled but injury-prone, replaces Brown. Expect them to be a regular-season giant.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are stocked with high-level talent and a blend of youth and experience. Guard Donovan Mitchell will again threaten to top the league’s scoring charts, helped by James Harden’s playmaking. 

Evan Mobley, a former Defensive Player of the Year, and Jarrett Allen form a formidable front-court, while the Cavaliers have added promising wing Peyton Watson, who brings a much-needed ingredient: perimeter defence. 

The high-spending Cavaliers are reliably strong in the regular season, and last season they knocked out the top-seeded Pistons to reach the Eastern Conference Finals. But the Knicks then swept them 4-0, ending another deep play-off run with Mitchell and Harden coming up short. It remains to be seen whether this iteration can get over the hump.

The Detroit Pistons topped the East in the regular season, but their shortcomings — a lack of shooting and no second ball-handler to support All-NBA point guard Cade Cunningham — cost them in the playoffs. They defend superbly, thanks to athletic centre Jalen Duren, who re-signed only after arduous negotiations, and the tireless, disruptive Ausar Thompson (Amen’s twin). This will serve them well in the regular season, but they need better shooting to contend in the play-offs They have added forward John Collins to help on that front, but he has never been on a contending team before.

The East runs deep, with at least six more teams in play-off contention. The Toronto Raptors have brought back Kawhi Leonard, the hero of their 2019 title, in a trade delayed for months by a league investigation that found him and his previous team, the Los Angeles Clippers, guilty of salary-cap circumvention. Leonard escaped a harsher punishment by paying a fine and has joined a long, athletic, defence-minded core led by Scottie Barnes. Toronto could finish in the top four.

The Indiana Pacers, who lost a seven-game Finals to the Thunder in 2025, have got back All-NBA guard Tyrese Haliburton after his Achilles injury. They are coached by Rick Carlisle, whose teams routinely outperform expectations in the playoffs. The Miami Heat have added Giannis Antetokounmpo, a top-five player, to a core led by centre Bam Adebayo, under the league’s longest-serving coach, Erik Spoelstra. The Atlanta Hawks, Orlando Magic and Charlotte Hornets are full of promising young players who could lift them into the play-offs

27 WINS AWAY FROM THE MOST ALL-TIME 👑 Entering his historic 24th season, LeBron James is 27 regular-season wins away from passing Kareem Abdul-Jabbar for the most in NBA history! LBJ and the new-look Sixers visit the Knicks at MSG TOMORROW at 7pm/et on NBC & Peacock. https://t.co/kBPXCHFT0H

— NBA (@NBA) October 20, 2026

This is also the last season before the new ‘3-2-1’ draft lottery system comes into effect next year. Under this system, the three worst teams of the 2026-27 season will be ‘draft relegated’, i.e., they will get fewer chances in the lottery and could slip as far as the 12th pick. That reduces the incentive to ‘tank’ — deliberately fielding weak line-ups to lose games and land a high pick — and should make the lower half of both conferences more competitive.

Beyond the favourites and also-rans, the NBA offers basketball at its global best, with a game that keeps evolving as players and teams refine their skills and tactics. Today’s All-Stars have skills rarely seen before. Centres like Wembanyama and Jokic handle the ball, shoot three-pointers and pass while still dominating the paint. Teams field shooters, cutters and defenders who can guard several positions, with coaches moving them around like chess pieces. 

It is an exciting time to watch the NBA, and aficionados will get their money’s worth. If the Knicks repeat, or if the Thunder or Spurs begin a run of titles, this may also be the season the age of parity ends.