Strong El Nino in coming years can cut crop yields by up to 10%, says study on ASEAN agriculture

SINGAPORE - Average crop production in Southeast Asia could fall by up to 10 per cent in years with very strong El Nino events, according to a new study.

Drier and hotter weather caused by the climate phenomenon is likely to affect rice production the most out of the five major crops assessed, according to the ASEAN Agri Climate Impact Twenty (AACIT) study.

The study, jointly conducted by the Singapore Food Agency (SFA) and the National University of Singapore’s (NUS) Tropical Marine Science Institute, was presented as part of the 48th Meeting of the ASEAN Ministers on Agriculture and Forestry (AMAF) and related meetings on Oct 29.

Among its key findings are that Southeast Asia is projected to have more frequent and longer heatwaves in the coming years, though rainfall patterns are likely to vary across locations and time.

This means climate change will not affect all parts of ASEAN in the same way, with some areas experiencing heavier rainfall and flooding while others may face prolonged dry spells or greater drought stress.

Adaptation measures will therefore need to consider local conditions, crop types and planting seasons, said a factsheet on the AACIT study released by SFA and NUS.

The study, which was started in 2024, combined climate information with crop modelling to project changes in the region’s crop production from 2025 to 2044.

It found that rice, maize and sugarcane are projected to see a drop in average crop production in the next two decades, while the yields for cassava and soybean could rise.

However, even the crops with more favourable projected yields are not free from climate-related risks, as their production could still be affected by variation in climate conditions in a particular year, such as extreme heat, heavy rainfall, or drought.

It also found that ASEAN’s crop yields could vary widely between years, depending on the weather.

For instance, rice production could rise by 4% in years with good weather, and fall by 15% in bad years. Meanwhile, soybean yields could increase by as much as 30% in favourable years, and decline by 5% in unfavourable years.

Southeast Asia is responsible for over a quarter of global rice production and 40% of international rice exports, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization. The Straits Times has asked SFA for more information on the full study.

Minister for Sustainability and the Environment Grace Fu said on Oct 29 that the study will strengthen ASEAN member states’ collective understanding of the climate risks facing its food systems, and highlight pathways to enhance adaptation and resilience.

Speaking at the opening of the 48th AMAF meeting, Fu said climate change, geopolitical developments, supply chain disruptions, and emerging pests and animal diseases underscore the need for countries to strengthen their food systems.

“Our challenges are interconnected and addressing them requires collective action,” she said. “For example, supporting farmers to reduce reliance on slash and burn practices and adopt more sustainable and productive agricultural practices, can yield benefits for both our environmental sustainability and food security.”

This year’s AMAF meeting saw Singapore take over as chair from the Philippines. The city-state will take on chairmanship of ASEAN in 2027.

Fu said that as AMAF chair, Singapore will table a concept note on the Food Security Resilience Pact 2045. This will provide a long-term framework to strengthen the grouping in areas such as food availability, climate adaptation, technology, supply chains, emergency preparedness and financing.

“By working together and taking a holistic approach, ASEAN can build more sustainable and resilient food systems,” she said.

Expressing a similar sentiment, Philippines Secretary of Agriculture Francisco Laurel noted at the meeting that climate change, disruptions in global supply chains and rising uncertainties in international markets continue to put pressure on ASEAN’s food systems and the livelihoods of farmers, fishermen, and rural communities

“These challenges have reinforced one important lesson: food security cannot be pursued by individual countries alone,” said the outgoing AMAF chairman. “It requires stronger regional board cooperation, collective action, and sustained commitment.”

Prior to the meeting, Fu and Japan State Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Fujiki Shinya exchanged a renewed memorandum of cooperation in the agriculture and food sector between Singapore and Japan,

The agreement provides a framework for both countries to work more closely on agriculture and food technologies, food security and emergency preparedness, and the international commerce of food, said a statement from the Ministry of Sustainability and the Environment.

Addressing a roundtable discussion on ASEAN’s food system transformation in the afternoon, Fu said the global agrifood landscape is rapidly changing due to climate change, supply chain vulnerabilities and increasing pressure on resources such as land and water.

At the same time, technological developments are creating new opportunities to improve productivity, she noted.

“We have an opportunity to focus on what comes next. For example, how can we mobilise investment into projects that strengthen food systems,” she said. “And how can we bring solutions to more farmers, businesses and communities across the region.”