Best bets: Is Trinidad Chambliss the most consistent piece of the Texas-Ole Miss puzzle?

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  Pamela MaldonadoOct 21, 2026, 07:00 AM ET

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  Pamela Maldonado is a sports betting analyst for ESPN.

No. 7 Ole Miss is 5-1, sitting third in the SEC and heading to Austin to face a Texas team that feels like it's one more bad Saturday away from a full-blown crisis. The Longhorns dropped 12 spots to No. 19 after back-to-back losses to Oklahoma and Florida.

We've heard every version of the same argument: Is it Arch Manning? Is it Steve Sarkisian? Where is the run game?

The defense has been holding Texas together as best it can and now Colin Simmons is expected to be out with an ankle injury. Great, another problem for a team that hasn't solved the others.

Texas can't afford a third loss and Ole Miss doesn't want to find out what a second would do to its playoff chances. The SEC keeps beating itself up, and neither team can afford to be this week's casualty.

It's a huge game for both. It's also a game where I trust one offense a lot more than I trust my opinion on who wins.

Odds by DraftKings and subject to change.

No. 7 Ole Miss at No. 19 Texas -3.5
Saturday, 7:30 p.m., ABC

Records: Ole Miss 5-1, 3-1 vs. AP Top 25; Texas 4-2, 2-0 vs. AP Top 25

Money line: Ole Miss (+136); Texas (-162)
Over/Under: 52.5 (O -108, U -112)

The matchup:

I never like my team. Ever. So naturally, after a couple of nasty losses, the offensive struggles and Simmons expected out ... this is the week I find myself liking the Longhorns.

There is a football case for it: Texas is 13th in defensive success rate and inside the top 25 against both the pass and the run, although those numbers do include Simmons. Ole Miss' defense also gives this underperforming offense something to work with. Florida rushed for 302 yards against the Rebels so there could be an opportunity for Hollywood Smothers, Raleek Brown and Manning to finally get something going on the ground.

At least, that's what I want to see.

But Texas went a combined 8-for-36 on third down against Tennessee, Oklahoma and Florida. Whether Texas can block it, coach Sarkisian commits to it and the offense executes it are separate questions. Ole Miss being vulnerable against the run doesn't automatically make Texas capable of exploiting it.

Meanwhile, Trinidad Chambliss was my preseason pick to win the Heisman, and he's getting more than a field goal against a team that keeps finding ways to fall apart offensively. That ticket doesn't prevent me from liking Texas here, but it tells you how conflicted I am about this matchup.

I can see a path for Texas. I'm just being asked to trust an offense that hasn't earned it yet. That's why I'm leaving the Longhorns alone.

Prediction: Ole Miss team total OVER 26.5

The part of this matchup I trust most is Chambliss. Even when Florida beat Ole Miss 52-28, Chambliss completed 25 of 34 passes for 298 yards and accounted for three scores. Yes, he threw an interception, but Ole Miss didn't get blown out because its quarterback couldn't move the ball.

Now he gets Texas, which is a tougher assignment. However, this defense's numbers were built with Simmons on the field, with 10.5 of the team's 19 sacks to his name, and now expected to miss time. Texas can still have good defensive players, and still have to figure out how to replace the guy considered to be the backbone of the team.

The Rebels offense has allowed just five sacks all season. If Texas can't get pressure with its remaining front, Chambliss has more time. If Texas sends extra rushers, it gives him fewer defenders in coverage to work against. Neither makes this easy, but I like his chances better without Simmons chasing him.

Add Ole Miss's quick pace and an offense that is successful on more than half its plays against a good defense missing its best pass rusher, I can get behind that at even money. I'm backing Chambliss to do his part.