Naidu to Vijay, Jagan to Stalin: Are key South players hedging bets before 2029

While the ruling BJP and the Opposition Congress-led INDIA bloc draw battle lines in the heartland in the run-up to several crucial elections, some leading regional parties in South India seem to be looking to expand their hefts to position themselves for any scenarios centred on the 2029 Lok Sabha polls.

While the BJP closely tracks the manoeuvrings of its key ally, TDP president and Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu – who has always displayed his political astuteness and strategic acumen – the Congress is keeping a watch on YSRCP chief and ex-Andhra CM Y S Jagan Mohan Reddy, who has yet to take a position on the question of realignment.

Jagan’s recent statement expressing regret for helping the Narendra Modi-led NDA government pass the Chief Election Commissioner and Other Election Commissioners (Appointment, Conditions of Service and Term of Office) Act, 2023, and calling it a “mistake”, has reignited fresh hopes among the INDIA parties. The law provides for selection of the ECs by a three-member panel comprising the Prime Minister, a minister chosen by the PM and the Leader of Opposition, making it a government-dominated exercise.

Some observers see the shift in Jagan’s stance on a major issue and Naidu’s recent meeting with his Tamil Nadu counterpart, TVK chief C Joseph Vijay, as indications of a possible recalibration in their moves.

Naidu, Vijay bonhomie

Vijay attended Vijayawada Utsav 2.0 – a major cultural event of Andhra Pradesh held to mark Dussehra festivities – where Naidu rolled out a red carpet for him.

Naidu used his meeting with Vijay not just for cultural diplomacy but also for creating optics for his outreach to southern leaders across political spectrum. “Naidu is trying to get political leverage here. His attempts for the so-called southern alliance has sent a message to the BJP leadership – that he has the potential and ability to play from any side and can become a pressure group in his own right in the future,” said a senior BJP leader who has worked with the Andhra Pradesh BJP.

“Naidu’s timing is also significant. He has started making these bids at a time when the BJP is facing pressure over multiple issues,” the leader said. “The BJP has never underestimated him. Political alliance is a marriage of convenience.”

A TDP leader said that Naidu’s meeting with Vijay at a time when the youth and students have been venting their angst against the Modi government on the streets has sent out a signal.

“As of today, there is hardly anyone in the NDA camp who can get the pulse of Gen Z. The current political scene and what we are witnessing in the national capital are connected to what happened in Tamil Nadu politics where Gen Z lifted Vijay and TVK to the seat of power. Naidu’s meeting with Vijay and its optics gave a message to the youngsters that ‘I can understand you’. This will certainly boost his position in NDA,” the TDP leader said.

However, Lavu Krishna Devarayalu, TDP parliamentary party leader, insisted that the Naidu-Vijay meeting was meant to push infrastructure and environmental projects. “More than politics, right now Naidu Garu is working on interlinking of rivers, an issue close to his heart. He has been taking it up at every platform whose need has been reinforced by the Super El Nino and its impact on our farming sector. The Chief Ministers of Tamil Nadu and Telangana are on board over the issue of interlinking of the rivers, which would be advantageous for Odisha, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka along with Andhra Pradesh. It’s for building better infrastructure and opportunities,” he said.

Krishna also said the TDP-led government has been focusing on farmer centric initiatives in Andhra Pradesh. “Since no irrigation project could take off between 2019-2024 due to mismanagement by the then (Jagan-led) government, we have taken up many projects to compensate for them. Mother of all projects is the inter-linking of the rivers and that’s the reason Naidu has made those moves,” he added.

DMK in a quandary

Reeling from the Congress’s move to snap ties with it to join the Vijay-led government following the Tamil Nadu elections in May, the DMK has yet to firm up its roadmap ahead.

While the BJP has made overtures to the Dravidian party to seek its help for pushing a delimitation-linked constitutional amendment Bill to advance reservation for women to 2029 – which was defeated in the Lok Sabha in the April special session – the DMK continues to be in a dilemma about the political ramifications of joining hands with the BJP.

“The DMK has no doubts that it has to oppose the Congress, but aligning with the BJP directly could be problematic. The best option before it is to explore the possibility of a third front (with non-Congress, non-BJP parties). And we are sure the parties in Tamil Nadu which are facing survival threat because of the TVK will join us,” said a DMK insider.

Last month, DMK leader in the Lok Sabha K Kanimozhi met NCP (SP) leaders Sharad Pawar and Supriya Sule and Trinamool Congress (TMC) founder Mamata Banerjee in order to explore the chances of forming a non-Congress Opposition front.

Following a meeting of the DMK MPs – the party has 22 MPs in the Lok Sabha and eight in the Rajya Sabha – recently, the party leadership demanded the scrapping of the SIR and a return to the ballot papers for elections – a demand that the BJP has already rejected.

DMK sources said the party is “deeply concerned” about the rapid decline in the Election Commission (EC)’s credibility and the BJP’s “continued defence” of Gyanesh Kumar.