Patriots vs. Bills predictions, odds, time: 2026 NFL Week 4 picks from proven model
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SportsLine's model has revealed its New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills picks for Week 4 action on Sunday
• 2 min read
Josh Allen and the unbeaten Buffalo Bills host Drake Maye and a sputtering New England Patriots team on Sunday in an NFL Week 4 matchup on CBS and Paramount+. Allen's Bills are 3-0 after a 24-16 win over the Chargers; they lead the NFL in scoring at 33.7 points per game. New England is 1-2 after a 35-6 loss in Jacksonville. Maye, last year's MVP runner-up, has one touchdown and six interceptions. The AFC East rivals split last year's games, with each winning on the road. Claim the latest Polymarket promo code CBSSPORTS to get a $25 bonus after depositing $10:
Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y. The latest Patriots vs. Bills odds have Buffalo as a 7-point favorite. The over/under for total points scored is 49.5. Buffalo is one of three NFL teams with a 3-0 mark against the spread, while the Pats are 1-1-1 ATS. Before making any Patriots vs. Bills picks, be sure to see the Bills vs. Patriots predictions from SportsLine's proven model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on betting sites on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model entered Week 4 of the 2026 NFL season on a 54-43 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its picks at NFL betting sites could have seen strong returns.
Now, the model has zoned in on Patriots vs. Bills. You can head to SportsLine now to see its picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Bills vs. Patriots:
Patriots vs. Bills spread | BIlls -7 |
Patriots vs. Bills over/under | 49.5 points |
Patriots vs. Bills money line | Bills -305, Patriots +245 |
Patriots vs. Bills picks | |
Patriots vs. Bills streaming |
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Top Patriots vs. Bills predictions
After 10,000 simulations of Patriots vs. Bills, the model is going Under 49.5 points at betting apps. No team has scored more points through three weeks than the Bills, though the total is dropping. In Weeks 1 and 2, Buffalo games totaled 77 and 72 points. In Week 3, just 40.
Meanwhile, the Patriots have had major issues scoring, just 36 points through three games. The defense has kept the team in it, fifth in yards allowed. It will be tested vs. Allen, who already has 900 total yards and 11 TDs.
The model believes the defenses do enough, projecting 47 combined points as the Under hits in 58% of simulations. See which team to back at SportsLine.
How to make Patriots vs. Bills picks
In addition to going Under, the model also says one side of the spread is the better value. See what it is at SportsLine.
Who covers in Patriots vs. Bills, and which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Patriots vs. Bills spread you need to jump, all from the model that's on a 54-43 run on top-rated picks since 2024, and find out.
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