Disinformation campaigns will fail

My conviction that China’s cognitive operations against Taiwan will never succeed grows stronger each time I visit the nation.

One of the tools in the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) playbook for “getting Taiwan back,” beyond invasion, blockade or quarantine, is the use of disinformation, manipulation and cognitive warfare. The aim is to change the way Taiwanese think, and undermine their resilience and trust in the government. The ultimate goal is to create conditions conducive to unification.

The number of topics that can be used in such campaigns are infinite. Our imagination is often limited compared with the range of topics that Chinese disinformation campaigns cover and the people they are aimed at. One of my favorite examples is the amplification of the egg shortage in Taiwan in 2023 to portray the administration of then-president Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) as unable to govern and that it was harming Taiwanese by banning egg imports from China. There are more examples that, as a foreigner who does not live in Taiwan, I am unaware of.

The fundamental reason why China’s cognitive tactics against Taiwan will not succeed lies in the self-identification of Taiwanese.

The Elections Study Center at National Chengchi University said more than 60 percent of people living in Taiwan identify as Taiwanese only, while about 31 percent identify as Chinese and Taiwanese. Only 2.5 percent identify as Chinese only. Self-identification cannot be changed by any kind of disinformation.

The majority of Republic of China citizens living in Taiwan were born there. Even if their family roots are in China, they have lived their whole lives in a democratic environment. Over time, the number of people who came to Taiwan from China, who remember and feel nostalgic for that country, has shrunk significantly.

The center said the majority of people living in Taiwan, or 59 percent, want to secure the “status quo,” with 34 percent saying they want the “status quo” to continue indefinitely, and 25 percent want it to remain as it is for the time being, but will decide later whether to pursue unification or independence.

The combination of the three factors — identifying as Taiwanese only, a strong desire to maintain the “status quo,” and the fact that most Taiwanese were born in Taiwan and grew up in a democratic country — renders Chinese disinformation efforts ineffective.

Of these three factors, self-identification is the most important. It cannot be altered by disinformation campaigns, because it is a deeply rooted emotional feeling. It is impossible for someone who identifies as Taiwanese to change their identity, embrace the idea of unification with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and become Chinese, regardless of what Beijing proposes.

Chinese disinformation campaigns may change the way Taiwanese perceive China, such as making them see the PRC as interesting and worth visiting, or even better than Taiwan; it might even result in disappointment with the Taiwanese government or raise criticism regarding Taiwan’s political, social or economic life. However, these do not mean Taiwanese would have the desire to become Chinese and unify with the PRC.

The two terms of former president Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) was a period of great stability between Taiwan and China, with increased exchanges and deep economic cooperation. Paradoxically, there was also a surge in self-identification as purely Taiwanese, which rose from 48 percent in 2008 to 60 percent in 2015.

If a friendly China has not turned Taiwanese into Chinese, then a more aggressive China will certainly not succeed in doing so.

Justyna Szczudlik is deputy head of research and China analyst with the Polish Institute of International Affairs. She is the former head of the Asia-Pacific Program (2016-2021) and a Taiwan Fellowship recipient (2013, National Chengchi University). Her research focuses on China’s foreign policy, especially China-EU and China-Central Europe relations, as well as cross-strait relations.