Trade group crunches numbers on Trump’s impossible push for 100% US-made tech

Product categories included computer monitors, laptops, robotic vacuums, smart speakers, smartphones, smartwatches, televisions, video game consoles, wireless earbuds, and wireless headphones.

Smartphones are in a “league of their own,” the CTA said, emerging as the most expensive product to make in the US and the product that Americans consider least dispensable. Taking into account tariffs in place today, the cost of fully manufacturing a smartphone in the US would go up by 152 percent, CTA estimated, and some of those costs would inevitably have to be covered by consumers to maintain profit margins and keep investors happy.

The largest cost increases would be in products with processors, memory, and advanced displays, the CTA said. Building laptops would cost 93 percent more, and smartwatches 97 percent more. On the lower end of the spectrum, TVs would cost 41 percent more to build entirely in the US.

In this scenario, most tech companies wouldn’t immediately pass all extra costs on to their customers. But any big price jumps could hurt Americans already pinching pennies. CTA’s research indicated that companies could pass on between 25 and 50 percent of the cost increase.

On average, CTA estimated that “the 10 products in our report would see a weighted average price increase of 27 to 55 percent.” For the most cash-vulnerable and value-seeking US families, that could quickly add up as the devices they depend on wear down.

“A household replacing a phone, a laptop, and a television over a typical replacement cycle would face that increase on each purchase,” the CTA reported.

Households already facing budget strains—including rising costs of rent, groceries, and fuel—are already delaying technology purchases until prices come down in the US, the CTA reported. And while most people are unwilling to go without smartphones for very long, the fewer products that tech companies can sell over time, the worse their margins will get as they continue to absorb higher costs. As returns diminish, that could spook investors, the CTA suggested, making it even harder to reshore supply chains, despite Trump insisting that reshoring will ultimately attract more investment in the US. With each product category taking years to fully reshore, the jury is out on how many businesses could afford that, the CTA suggested.