Tough talks ahead in proposed Umno-PAS GE16 pact, says analysts

Umno should brace itself for tough seat negotiations with PAS after the Islamic party’s president expressed his preference for the four northern states to hold their elections concurrently with the 16th general election (GE16), an analyst said.

Akademi Nusantara’s Azmi Hassan said Abdul Hadi Awang’s stance reflects PAS’s desire to maintain its grip over Kedah, Kelantan, Terengganu and Perlis — collectively known as the “SG4” bloc.

“Based on what Hadi said during the muktamar a few weeks ago, all the seats PAS currently holds, including those in the SG4 states, will be defended and not given to others to contest, including Barisan Nasional,” he told FMT.

He pointed out that the four states were PAS strongholds, with the party holding about 90% of the seats there.

Last week, Hadi said there was no need for separate elections in the four states, arguing that holding them alongside GE16 would be more practical.

His remarks came after Umno deputy president Mohamad Hasan proposed that Terengganu hold an early state election to test PAS’s sincerity in fostering political cooperation with BN.

Mohamad had said any seat sharing formula agreed for Terengganu could serve as a model for GE16.

However, PAS deputy president Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man rejected Mohamad’s proposal, saying support for an early GE16 did not mean that the Islamic party had to agree to early polls in Terengganu.

He also maintained that the Terengganu government was stable, adding that voters should not be saddled with unnecessary costs.

Azmi said seat negotiations in any BN–PAS collaboration would likely have to be worked out on a state‑by‑state basis.

He said Melaka could serve as an early test of how the two parties navigate their respective claims, with PAS seeking more than the seven seats left after BN declared it would defend all 21 constituencies it currently holds.

Azmi said both parties were firm in their position as regards seats they already control.

“It doesn’t make sense for PAS to give up the seats it currently holds to BN, just as BN would never give up the 21 seats it currently holds in Melaka,” he said.

Meanwhile, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia political analyst Mazlan Ali said the prospect of cooperation between Umno and PAS remained “a long way off” after PAS rebuffed Umno’s call for an early state election.

“It is abundantly clear that PAS will not easily relinquish the constituencies and states under its control,” he said.

He warned that PAS’s refusal to test a cooperation formula in the SG4 states could undermine efforts to forge a broader Umno–PAS agreement ahead of GE16.

Mazlan said Umno would need assurances from PAS before embarking on large‑scale seat‑sharing. He also said Umno could turn to other coalitions if PAS was unwilling to compromise.

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