NFL Week 6 best bets: Texans to shine against Jaguars in London, two anytime TD scorers for Bears-Falcons
Back C.J. Stroud and Houston to deliver an upset, Drake Maye and New England to cover, and two tight ends to clear their receiving totals
• 4 min read
We are definitely moving in the right direction with our best bets. After a tough start, we hit three out of five each of the last two weeks, but there's one I'm particularly proud of -- and, for your sakes, hoping you'll jump on board.
I put Jacoby Brissett 2+ passing touchdowns AND 1+ interceptions out into the world last week, and he came through: three touchdowns, one interception. We cashed out with +230 odds. And now I must re-emphasize this:
Jacoby Brissett has thrown 2+ passing touchdowns AND 1+ interceptions in seven of his last 11 starts. And you can still get it at major plus odds!
Thank you for listening.
We also nailed the Texans covering against the Titans and Davante Adams as an anytime touchdown scorer. We missed on the Bears, who got stomped by the Packers, and on a Drake Maye rushing prop; the blowout really hurt there.
But overall, it was another good week. Let's keep stacking.
As always, all betting odds are courtesy of DraftKings.
Patriots cover (-7.5) vs. Jets (-110)
I was pretty surprised to see this line. The Jets are coming off a win over the Browns, yes, but it was a 17-12 affair in the rain in which the Jets managed a measly 4.2 yards per play and basically won because Deshaun Watson was incompetent.
Drake Maye has had some rough stretches this year but is really hitting his stride. Over the past two weeks, Maye leads the NFL in passing touchdowns and passer rating and is third in yards per attempt. He's taken just two sacks after taking nine from Weeks 1-3. The big play is back in a major way, a huge part of Maye at his best.
The defense has also come around, too, even with Christian Gonzalez out. Now, it's looking like he'll be back to augment a unit that already ranks fifth in yards per game allowed. Also, Zak Kuhr is dialing up some impressive pressure looks, and Geno Smith has taken the third-most sacks in the NFL this year.
Texans ML vs. Jaguars (+120)
I am downright scared about what this Houston defensive line could do to a Jaguars offensive line that just lost Anton Harrison and already wasn't in the best shape. Last week, Jalen Carter absolutely dominated Jacksonville's interior o-line; this week, it will be Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter on the edges.
Furthermore, C.J. Stroud has played some really, really good ball this season. In the three games Nico Collins has played, Stroud is completing 70.9% of his passes, averaging 8.6 yards per attempt, and posting 0.24 EPA per dropback. Extended to the whole season, that would rank second, fourth and sixth, respectively. He hasn't thrown a single interception all season, either.
Finally, while the Jaguars are down arguably their best lineman, the Texans theirs, Braden Smith, back. Marvin Harrison Jr. is also expected to make his Houston debut. I anticipate a big day for Collins and the Texans, with a crucial win coming home.
Juwan Johnson 40+ receiving yards (-134)
The Giants are coming off a game in which they gave up four catches and 60 receiving yards to Chig Okonkwo. Now they face another receiving-first tight end in Juwan Johnson. Johnson had been consistently productive this year -- at least three catches and at least 50 yards in every game -- before facing the Vikings' excellent defense. He had just 16 yards last week. But the Giants' defense is not the Vikings' defense, and it's not close. I like Johnson to have a solid day against a linebacking unit that has had major ups and downs in coverage.
Tucker Kraft 40+ receiving yards (-166)
How about another tight end? The Cowboys' high-powered offense and porous defense make for a shootout, and Tucker Kraft should be a beneficiary. There was always going to be a bit of a ramp-up for the excellent tight end coming off a torn ACL, but over the past two weeks, he's had 11 catches for 104 yards. Now he faces a Cowboys defense that can't seem to stop anyone.
A healthy Joey Porter Jr. should help against Christian Watson and/or Matthew Golden, but defending tight ends has been a major issue for Dallas. The Cowboys have allowed 9.0 yards per attempt when opponents target tight ends, the fifth-highest rate in the NFL through five weeks. And it's not as if they've faced a ton of good receiving tight ends, either; the best was probably Isaiah Likely in Week 1, and Likely had eight catches for 78 yards and two touchdowns.
D'Andre Swift AND Drake London anytime TD scorer (+212)
It's looking like no Kyle Monangai again this week for the Bears, so backing D'Andre Swift to find the endzone (-175) makes sense by itself. He scored last week against the Packers, and though he had just one touch after halftime and Ben Johnson saying he doesn't want to overuse any running back, a major deficit certainly didn't help. If that game had been closer, I doubt Swift would have only had one carry in the second half. Having Caleb Williams back should help this offense big time, and even if he's not back, I think Swift scores. He has four touchdowns on the season and has been stopped at the 1-yard line an NFL-high seven times.
Drake London is due for some major regression. He has usually dominated with Michael Penix Jr. on the field, and that's holding up this year: 21 catches for 408 yards in the past three weeks, all Penix starts. It sounds like Penix will be good to go Sunday, and that means it's time for London to find the end zone. His 27 receptions and 488 receiving yards this season are both by far the most of anyone without a touchdown. Regression is coming, and it starts against a leaky Chicago secondary.
Season record: 12-13
Week 6
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