Israeli security officials fear possible regional escalation amid Iran, Houthis, West Bank tensions

Despite a tense but relatively stable security period, the Middle East is approaching the risk of a broader escalation as multiple flashpoints converge across the region, Israeli security officials told Walla on Wednesday.

From the confrontation between the US and Iran and the activation of Iranian proxies, through Saudi Arabia's campaign against the Houthis and Hezbollah's military buildup, to the deadlock in Gaza and tensions in the West Bank, the Israeli defense establishment is monitoring the various arenas and preparing for the possibility that deterioration in one could affect the region as a whole.

US President Donald Trump is eager to bring the conflict with Iran to an end before the midterm elections. According to assessments by Israeli security officials, he is therefore heightening tensions in the Middle East with threats against Iran in an effort to demonstrate seriousness ahead of a possible return to the negotiating table.

According to Israeli sources, mediators between Tehran and Washington have so far failed to produce positive developments. Officials broadly assess that the Iranians recognize Trump's reluctance to return to active fighting and are therefore holding firm to their uncompromising position: refusing to abandon the nuclear project and refusing to open the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump is also continuing to tighten economic sanctions on Iran and threaten those cooperating with Tehran in an effort to revive its faltering economy.

The Iranian regime is operating on several fronts. The first is an attempt to maneuver between severe US economic sanctions and the possibility that regime opponents could take to the streets to protest the difficult conditions.

At the same time, the Iranian regime continues preparing for war in several arenas. It has begun producing surface-to-surface missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles and is also preparing for a possible ground invasion.

In addition, and perhaps most sensitively, the Iranian regime under Mojtaba Khamenei continues to pursue a hard-line and uncompromising approach toward the US and Israel while simultaneously strengthening its relationship with its "proxies": Hezbollah on Israel's border, the Houthis in Yemen against Saudi Arabia and possibly against Israel in the foreseeable future, and pro-Iranian Shi'ite militias in Iraq against the pro-Western Iraqi government and, in the foreseeable future, against American and Israeli interests.

More than anything else, this issue makes the region particularly volatile. The concern is that Iran could decide to escalate the region gradually and call on its "proxies," which receive funding, weapons, intelligence, and training from Tehran, to join the confrontation.

Saudi Arabia seeking support from US over Houthi attacks

Saudi Arabia received a lesson from the Americans over the past week. Senior Saudi officials were alarmed by the Houthis' broad attack on the capital Riyadh, Mecca, facilities belonging to Aramco, one of the world's largest energy companies, and by a ground incursion toward the Bab al-Mandab Strait, which threatened Red Sea shipping routes and the passage of oil tankers.

According to Israeli security officials, the Saudis called the Americans, demanding immediate assistance.

Trump held consultations and ultimately decided not to strike the Houthis, instead offering intelligence or assistance with weapons systems.

This raises several significant questions: Will Saudi Arabia succeed in assembling an anti-Houthi coalition? How involved will Israel be? Will it limit itself to intelligence sharing?

For now, the Saudis remain alone in the campaign. The entire arena is therefore fragile. If the Houthis feel backed into a corner, they could also attack Israel, where American interests, including bases, are located.

Hezbollah restrained, Hamas negotiations at dead end

Hezbollah remains restrained, but it is building its capabilities for a future war with Iranian support, with a particular focus on aircraft and fiber-optic drones. In other words, if Tehran orders Hezbollah to join a campaign, Israel could find itself under attack from the north.

In addition, air and ground strikes are carried out almost daily against Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon. Some strikes target operatives and field commanders preparing attacks against Israel, while others are aimed at Hezbollah's military reconstruction efforts and terrorist infrastructure.

Negotiations by the Board of Peace with Hamas over disarming in the Gaza Strip and transferring control to a third party have reached a dead end.

Hamas has so far limited itself to hollow statements and a general agreement to hand weapons over to a third party, while Israel firmly opposes any arrangement under which Hamas remains a legitimate organization that retains weapons in the Gaza Strip.

Senior IDF officials are insisting on adopting the "Ali Taher Ridge" model in Gaza City. Under this approach, IDF troops would maneuver into the heart of the city and dismantle all major terrorist infrastructure above and below ground that Hamas has built over more than 20 years.

According to assessments in the defense establishment, a decision on this issue will be made after the Israeli elections and the US midterm elections.

At this stage, the concern is that Hamas or other terrorist organizations in the Gaza Strip could attempt attacks. High alert is therefore being maintained along the Yellow Line.

West Bank nationalist crime causing concerns among security officials

The West Bank is the arena causing the greatest concern. The area and the Jordan Valley are known as particularly volatile arenas during the holiday period.

Recently, nationalist crime has added to tensions, alongside growing friction between the Israeli and Palestinian populations.

Central Command is concerned that any incident could ignite the area and lead to revenge attacks or terrorist attacks. The IDF Operations Directorate has therefore reinforced the West Bank with battalions and additional units taking part in protecting communities and major roads.

In the background is the "turning the guns" scenario, referring to the possibility that Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, also known as Abu Mazen, could die and succession struggles could move from rhetoric to violence, creating chaos and gunfire directed at Israeli civilians and IDF soldiers.

According to senior Central Command officials, there are no signs at this stage of "turning the guns." However, succession struggles have already begun, and there are senior disappointed and frustrated figures in the West Bank, the Gulf and the Gaza Strip who are pulling strings and trying, among other things, to turn the West Bank into an arena in which terrorism is mobilized.

The Syrian arena is considered relatively quiet and stable.

Division 210, commanded by Brig.-Gen. Yair Palai, is taking the initiative in the Syrian arena. When intelligence is received about arms dealers in the area or elements hostile to Israel, the division launches an operation.

In addition, Israel's borders with Jordan and Egypt continue to serve as focal points for weapons smuggling. The concern is that these routes could one day become infiltration routes for terrorists.

The maritime arena has also been upgraded since Maj.-Gen. Eyal Barel took command of the Israel Navy, with additional vessels and a more proactive operational approach across greater distances and broader areas of operation in preparation for any scenario intended to challenge the IDF, with particular emphasis on the missile boat flotilla and the submarine flotilla.