Valkyries vs. Wings predictions: Expert picks for winner-take-all Game 3 as Golden State tries to avoid upset

A spot in the semifinals against the reigning champion Aces is on the line

Oct 2, 2026 at 11:42 am ET • 4 min read

The first round of the 2026 WNBA playoffs will come to a close Friday with a winner-take-all Game 3 between the Golden State Valkyries and Dallas Wings. The winner will earn the final spot in the semifinals and advance to take on the reigning champion Las Vegas Aces, who eliminated the Indiana Fever in their own winner-take-all contest on Thursday. 

The Valkyries dominated Game 1 of this series at home, leading by as many as 36 en route to a 24-point win. And when they jumped out to an early eight-point lead in Game 2, it seemed the same outcome was in store. Instead, Arike Ogunbowale poured in 45 points in the highest-scoring game in playoff history to lead the Wings to a comeback victory in overtime that evened the series. 

Now, the action shifts back to the Bay Area, where the Valkyries will try to win their first-ever playoff series, while the Wings will try to advance to the semifinals for the first time since 2023. 

2026 WNBA playoffs bracket, schedule, where to watch: Aces beat Fever, await Valkyries or Wings in semifinals

Lindsay Gibbs

Where to watch Valkyries vs. Wings Game 3

• Date: Friday, Oct. 2 | Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
• Location: Chase Center -- San Francisco, California
• TV: ESPN2/fubo
• Odds (via FanDuel): Valkyries -7.5 | O/U: 158.5

Valkyries vs. Wings Game 3 expert picks

Valkyries vs. Wings Game 3

	Lindsay Gibbs	Jack Maloney
Game 3	Valkyries	Valkyries

Gibbs: Valkyries 84, Wings 70

What the Wings did on Wednesday night was incredible. After getting run out of the gym in Game 1, losing 104-80 in a game that didn't even feel that close, they produced the most shocking result of the playoffs -- yes, even more so than the Liberty beating the Lynx -- to down the Valkyries 108-100 in overtime, thanks primarily to Ogunbowale's performance for the ages. It was a playoff game that I will remember for years to come.

But can it be repeated? I highly doubt it. The Valkyries averaged 82.2 points per game this season, the second-lowest output in the league. Yet they allowed just 75.1 points per game, which meant they still scored enough to finish with the second-best regular-season record in the league. That shows you just how abnormal the Valkyries' Game 2 performance really was. 

Gabby Williams, who finished second in Defensive Player of the Year voting to Angel Reese and scored a career-high 36 points in the shootout, said she didn't recognize her team in Dallas, and coach Natalie Nakase concurred.

"Giving up 108, that's uncalled for," Nakase said. "We got to keep them off the free-throw line. They had 37 free throws. That might be a record for us. So we have to be smarter. We've got to be there earlier and we've got to continue to fight together."

I expect this to be a return-to-form game for the Valkyries, both offensively and defensively. That means I don't think they will hit the century mark for the third game in a row, but rather will play much more cohesive half-court defense, slow the game down to a pace they're comfortable with, and make the Wings second-guess everything they do. 

It won't be a blowout like the first game, simply because the Valkyries won't score enough points to run away with it. But they'll drag the Wings back into the mud, keep them under 80 points and book a date with the Aces in the semifinals.

Maloney: Valkyries 84, Wings 70

The Valkyries are sizable favorites, and for good reason. 

First and foremost, the Valkyries have the best homecourt advantage in the league. They were a league-best 17-5 at home in the regular season, while the Wings were just 11-11 on the road, the worst mark of all playoff teams. And in Game 1 at Chase Center, the Valkyries led by as many as 36 en route to the biggest blowout win of the playoffs so far. 

Second, they were the best defensive team in the regular season by a wide margin, with a defensive rating (99.1) that was more than four points per 100 possessions better than any other team. At home, they were even better, sporting a 98.2 defensive rating and a 19.7% opponent turnover rate. They were not at their best defensively in Game 2, and you would expect them to turn up the intensity back in front of their home crowd, where they can quickly turn things into a frenzy that overwhelms opponents. 

And third, even if the Valkyries' defense was a bit lackluster on Wednesday, the Wings still needed a borderline miracle to win. Ogunbowale had the highest-scoring playoff game ever and made a number of absurd shots, including a game-tying 3-pointer from deep in the corner to force overtime. The Wings also banked in multiple other 3s and got 21 points from Alysha Clark, who hadn't scored 20 points in any game since 2022, and 13 points from Aziaha James. 

This is an elimination game, so I don't expect the Valkyries to dominate to the extent they did in the opener, especially when their own offense can be so shaky. But I do believe Game 1 was a truer reflection of this matchup than Game 2, and the Valkyries should win comfortably tonight.