Heisman Trophy odds update: CJ Carr takes favored role, but weak Notre Dame remaining schedule could hurt
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Notre Dame not playing in a conference title game could hurt CJ Carr's Heisman chances
• 5 min read
How spectacular was Saturday's amazing slate of college football action? And all those Top-25 matchups largely lived up to the billing. Four schools in the College Football Playoff top 10 were beaten, led by Notre Dame knocking off No. 1 Miami. That means the No. 1 team in the AP poll has lost four times overall in a regular season for the first time since 1990 and that a top-two team has lost in five straight weeks. That's tied for the longest run in AP and CFP poll history. Bet on college football at DraftKings, where new users get $200 in bonus bets and three free months of NBA League Pass when they spend $5+:
There is no doubt that the Fighting Irish were the biggest winners of Week 10, as now their path to the playoff is lit up like a Christmas runway, and remember they automatically get in if they're a top-12 team. All they need do is win at home vs. Boston College and SMU (suppose that's not a 100% sure thing) and at Syracuse, and it's a done deal. To be clear, the Irish already were -475 favorites to get in but now are -4000. The only school with shorter odds is Georgia at -9000, with the Dawgs as the new AP and CFP No. 1 team this week.
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Perhaps karma was on Notre Dame's side Saturday in the 31-24 victory, as it came exactly six years to the day the program got it last win over a No. 1 team, which was in the 2020 COVID season vs. Clemson when the Irish were a full-time ACC team for a year.
Not playing in a conference championship game may hugely benefit Notre Dame this year as it sits home guaranteed a spot sitting in the final CFP top 12. However, not playing in one also could hurt quarterback CJ Carr's chances to win the Heisman Trophy. The junior is the new +190 favorite, improving from a +500 third-favorite entering the weekend.
It's hard to say Carr doesn't deserve it after he completed 29 of 40 passes for 319 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions against the Canes. He became only the fifth FBS quarterback in the past 30 years to throw for at least 300 yards and three scores with no picks vs. the No. 1 team in the country. Ohio State's Will Howard (vs. Oregon), Alabama's Bryce Young (vs. Georgia), Clemon's Trevor Lawrence (vs. Alabama) and Clemson's Deshaun Watson (vs. Alabama) were the others.
None won the Heisman, but none did theirs during the regular season. And, really, it's just a matter now of whether someone can pass Carr, assuming the Irish do run the regular-season table. Heisman Trophy votes are due on Dec. 7, the Monday after conference championship Saturday.
Everyone probably knows the Irish haven't had has a Heisman winner since Tim Brown in 1987, but I bet you didn't know their last QB winner: John Huarte in 1964. Many assume Joe Montana won it, but he wasn't a national superstar then. Just a good QB. Notre Dame hasn't had a quarterback finish in the Heisman top three since Brady Quinn in 2006.
Miami's Darian Mensah was a +170 second-favorite for the Heisman entering the weekend and is still No. 2, but at +250. Needless to say, the absence of superstar wideout Malachi Toney hurt Mensah and that entire Hurricanes offense. Mensah had a season-worst completion of 55.8% and had a season-high 19 incompletions after entering with only 45 total on the year. The weather wasn't exactly pro-Miami on Saturday, either.
About the only good news of Toney missing the rest of the regular season and ACC title game is that Mensah won't have to split Heisman votes on his own team. But Miami has no signature games left itself (vs. Duke, Virginia Tech and Boston College), including the ACC Championship Game, so I'm doubting he will be able to catch Carr barring the Notre Dame QB slipping.
Ohio State wideout Jeremiah Smith was the +150 favorite entering Saturday but is now +280 and the only other player at DraftKings under +1500. But the Buckeyes were shocked 41-28 at home by Oregon and are now essentially out of the College Football Playoff picture with three overall losses and back-to-back by double digits. The injury to QB Julian Sayin in the big Oct. 17 win at Indiana wrecked the season and likely Smith's Heisman chances.
Smith was great as usual in the loss to the Ducks with seven catches for 133 yards and a TD, but you have to be a CFP contender these days to win the Heisman. So it likely will take the others in front of him to fail for Smith to have a realistic shot.
The other big winners Saturday were quarterback Devon Dampier and the Utah Utes, who beat BYU, 28-20, to end a three-game skid in the Holy War and take a huge step toward a spot in the College Football Playoff for the first time. Utah is now -700 to get there as one of just two unbeatens still standing, along with UCLA.
Dampier was +10000 in the Heisman odds entering Saturday but now +1500 after throwing for 177 yards and two scores and rushing for 87 yards and two TDs in Utah's 15th straight win overall. It was the senior's 17th straight game with at least two touchdowns.
I will say that Dampier's Heisman candidacy could be short because the Utes might be on massive letdown/upset alert this Saturday at No. 22 Arizona. They close at TCU and home to West Virginia before presumably the Big 12 title game, and that's a national window that guys like Dampier and Mensah would have that Carr would not.
The best Heisman finish for a Utah player was fourth by quarterback Alex Smith in 2004. If the Utes finish as the only unbeaten and Dampier keeps putting up video game numbers … he's clearly the best value left on the board anyway.
Georgia's Gunner Stockton is the quarterback of the nation's new No. 1 team, but does he do enough statistically on his own to move from his current number of +2700 to catch someone like Carr, Mensah or Dampier for the Heisman? I don't think so. Carr has to be the pick today. Might be the last week he's at a plus-money number. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.
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