WMO warns of ‘off the charts’ climate extremes as El Niño strengthens

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that a very strong El Niño event could intensify global heat and extreme weather into 2027.

Raising concerns about the impact on vulnerable communities, food production and water supplies.

In its latest State of the Climate Update 2026, released on 9 November, the United Nations agency said the world was experiencing a prolonged period of exceptional temperatures, melting ice and rising sea levels.

The report found that the past 12 years have each been the warmest on record.

Global average surface temperatures between January and September 2026 reached approximately 1.47°C above the pre-industrial average.

The WMO expects this figure to rise further by the end of the year as El Niño strengthens.

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said the state of the global climate in 2026 gave new meaning to the phrase “off the charts”.

She warned that hundreds of millions of people had already experienced extreme heat this year, while heatwaves, tropical cyclones and heavy rainfall were increasing the risks facing communities.

Southern Africa faces warmer conditions

The warning is particularly relevant to southern Africa, where the WMO’s seasonal outlook points to warmer-than-normal conditions between November 2026 and January 2027.

The forecast, based on climate models from several international partners, including the South African Weather Service (SAWS), also points to shifts in rainfall patterns across different parts of the world.

For southern Africa, the warmer outlook raises concerns about the potential effects of prolonged heat on water resources, agriculture and communities already vulnerable to extreme weather.

However, the outlook does not mean that every part of the region will experience the same rainfall conditions.

El Niño can bring different impacts to different areas.

Why El Niño is raising concerns

El Niño is a natural climate pattern that develops when sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean become warmer than normal.

The WMO said the current event has been strengthening since August and is expected to reach record strength by December.

The world’s oceans absorb about 90% of the excess heat trapped by greenhouse gases, making ocean warming a major factor in the changing global climate.

The WMO also reported that global sea levels reached their highest point in the satellite record in 2026, while ocean heat continued to rise.

Extreme weather puts lives and livelihoods at risk

The agency warned that El Niño could increase the risks of heatwaves, droughts and heavy rainfall well into 2027.

These conditions could affect food production, worsen water shortages and increase health risks, particularly in communities that depend on rain-fed agriculture.

The WMO also highlighted the human cost of recent extreme weather events.

The WMO said its 2026 update uses data available up to September and does not yet capture the latest impacts of the strengthening El Niño.

Its final State of the Global Climate 2026 report is expected in March 2027