Machado walks tightrope with supporters, Trump

After almost a year out of the country, Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado would aim to please at home and away

• By Mayela Armas and Julia Symmes Cobb / Reuters, CARACAS and BOGOTA

• • Add TT as Preferred Source

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Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, who returned on Sunday after nearly a year away, would walk a tightrope as she seeks the elections her supporters want without running afoul of a US-backed negotiation process between the interim government and other opposition groups.

Machado’s return to Venezuela after several failed attempts risks straining ties with US President Donald Trump’s administration. Washington has said she has every right to be in Venezuela, but has praised Acting Venezuelan President Delcy Rodriguez and supports a negotiation process between the Rodriguez government and opposition groups that does not include Machado’s Vente Venezuela movement.

The talks, which have continued this month, would remake the electoral council and top court ahead of eventual elections. Both bodies are staffed by ruling party loyalists and backed ousted president Nicolas Maduro in a disputed 2024 presidential election, despite tallies published by Machado’s movement that showed her candidate had won. The US military captured Maduro in January.

Illustration: Mountain People

Machado supporters, tens of thousands of whom swarmed her caravan between Barquisimeto and Caracas on Sunday, waving flags, chanting her name and festooning her with rosaries, are eager for elections and call her the next president. She has said a presidential vote should happen next year.

Machado’s team did not respond to a request for comment.

Asked whether Machado would participate in the negotiations, Rodriguez said she hoped the dialogue would lead those who called for sanctions against the country — a common ruling party critique leveled at Machado — to feel remorse. Rodriguez added that the talks offer a chance for all voices to be heard.

“I hope both the dialogue and the program for democratic coexistence and peace can provide a space where all voices can be heard, where voices seeking the good of the country can be heard,” the acting president said during a visit to a military hospital in Caracas, where she urged politicians to concentrate on serious issues and not put on a “show.”

Although Machado cultivated Trump as an ally for years, he said last month it was too soon to consider democratic elections. On Sunday, Trump said he had been unaware of her return plans, although a person briefed on her movements disputed that.

Machado’s eagerness for a vote could “short-circuit” the relationship with the US and its three-phase stabilization, recovery and transition plan for Venezuela, political risk consultancy Pder y Estrategia head Ricardo Rios said.

“The idea [at the negotiations] is to hold a regional election before a presidential election. She will probably push for electoral guarantees and for a presidential election to be held as soon as possible,” Rios said.

However, much remains to be defined before voters cast ballots.

“What guarantees does the ruling sector have to leave power [if it is defeated],” Rios asked. “That still needs to be defined in order to make this viable, because otherwise, no matter how popular she is, it complicates matters.”

Machado’s safe return was a direct outcome of the negotiations, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a longtime champion of Machado, said on Sunday, adding he expects all political actors to support the talks.

Venezuela’s electoral infrastructure was designed to rig elections and so must be quickly replaced before a valid election can be held, he told reporters on Monday. He did not provide an estimated date for elections.

“I think we’re making real progress in that regard,” Rubio said. “But if anybody tries to derail that process, they’re doing a great harm to Venezuela.”

The EU echoed that sentiment, saying on Monday authorities and all political actors should advance “an inclusive, Venezuelan-led dialogue towards free and fair elections.”

The negotiations would lead to a top court being in place by the end of this year and a new electoral council shortly thereafter, a senior US Department of State official said earlier.

“The reception [Machado] got yesterday will only reinforce the tendency to demand instant results,” International Crisis Group senior analyst for the Andes region Phil Gunson said. “Not only might that provoke a reaction from government hardliners, but it could — if successful — produce a political rupture instead of a peaceful transition, with inadequate post-electoral guarantees and a potentially ungovernable country.”

The opposition included in the talks, led by Dinorah Figuera, a lawmaker elected in 2015 to the last Venezuelan legislative body recognized by the US, said Machado’s return was a significant step in the US plan.

“Her role is also tied to how she interprets the signals from the US, which has called for reconstruction and reconciliation. She has to be an ally in the negotiations,” ORC Consultores managing director Oswaldo Ramirez said.

“Rubio sent a clear message,” he added. “I don’t see her trying to torpedo the negotiations. She can’t stray outside the lines.”