NPP Chairmanship race: How APL’s survey made a near-perfect prediction

When the Electoral Commission declared John Boadu as NPP National Chairman-elect at the Baba Yara Sports Stadium on Saturday, political pollsters took notice for another reason - the accuracy of the survey conducted by policy think tank Africa Policy Lens (APL).

The APL had conducted a series of polls on the election, but 24 hours before delegates converged in Kumasi, the APL released its final poll projecting the outcome of a highly competitive chairmanship race. And when the ballot boxes were opened, its prediction turned out to be almost perfect.

The APL poll predicted 47.3% for John Boadu, and the Electoral Commission declared 47.19% (2,888 votes) for him – a variance of just 0.11%.

It also predicted 39.0% for Boakye Agyarko, and he obtained 39.35% (2,408 votes) - a difference of only 0.35%.

For Paul Afoko, APL projected 12.5% for him, while the actal result was 12.90% (790 votes) - a variance of 0.40%.

And for Sammy Crabbe, who stepped down at the Conference ground, the APL poll predicted 0.7%, and despite stepping down, he polled 0.67% (41 votes) - a near-perfect variance of only 0.03%.

In an election with 6,141 delegates voting and only 14 rejected ballots, the largest margin of error across all four candidates was less than half a percent.

The NPP chairmanship race was considered one of the most difficult to poll. It is a delegates election, not a mass national vote, where lobbying, last-minute inducements and camp strategies can swing votes overnight.

In the race for General Secretary and Women’s Organiser, APL also got it accurately, having reported a no-contest situation, projecting that incumbent General Secretary Justin Kodua Frempong and Hawa Coomson were secured.

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DISCLAIMER: The Views, Comments, Opinions, Contributions and Statements made by Readers and Contributors on this platform do not necessarily represent the views or policy of Multimedia Group Limited.