Biggest question for each Wild Card Series: Can Yankees survive without Aaron Judge? Can Phillies bounce back?

All four series get underway on Tuesday, with plenty of question marks to go around

Sep 28, 2026 at 12:45 pm ET • 5 min read

The 2026 Major League Baseball postseason is upon us. 

With the marathon regular season freshly concluded and all 12 playoff berths handed out, it's time for October intrigue (even if, at this writing, it's not quite October yet). While four teams -- the Rays and Guardians on the American League side and the Brewers and Dodgers in the National League -- will enjoy byes straight to the Division Series round, the remaining eight teams will begin their respective Wild Card Series on Tuesday. By way of reminder, the wild card round is best-of-three with the higher seed hosting every game. 

With those essentials laid out, let's have a bit of a closer look at the four Wild Card Series that get underway on Tuesday. Specifically, we'll assign one question to each series that will go a long way toward determining which team prevails. Baseball is structurally dependent upon randomness to a degree foreign to other major sports, which means expectations are defied with regularity. That said, the questions to come represent a best guess at how each series will be decided. Onward. 

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Phillies at Braves: Will the Phillies bounce back from an ugly final week of the regular season?

The Phillies took the meandering and highly perilous route to clinching the third and final wild-card spot in the NL. They were on the cusp of securing a playoff berth for several days, but an ill-timed losing streak in tandem with a surge by the Diamondbacks made for a dramatic Game 162. Since the D-backs held the tiebreaker over the Phillies, nothing was to be assumed. In the end, the Phillies of course secured their spot with a win over the Rays, but they had to start co-ace Zack Wheeler to get there. Ideally, they would've clinched well before the last day of the regular season and thus been able to line up their rotation optimally. 

As for specifics, Cristopher Sánchez should be lined up to go in Game 2 on full rest, but Games 1 and 3 are question marks. In the opener opposite Braves ace Chris Sale, manager Don Mattingly will presumably go with Jesús Luzardo, who was recently activated from the injured list and who worked one inning of relief on four pitches on Sunday. Luzardo, who had been sidelined with shoulder inflammation, hasn't made a start since Sept. 7, so he's not entirely a known quantity going into this series. If there's a Game 3, does Mattingly summon Wheeler on short rest? Or does he tab Aaron Nola, who's been better down the stretch but still well shy of what the Phillies' front three have provided? If the Phillies hadn't forced themselves into playing a high-stakes Game 162, then all of this would be much clearer. 

White Sox at Astros: Will the Astros play better than they did in the regular season?

In a zipper-quick best-of-three series, any outcome is possible. That said, the Astros don't compare favorably, even up against a White Sox team that isn't exactly a juggernaut. At 81-81, the Astros have the worst record of any team to ever make the playoffs in MLB. Really, though, they're worse than that. During the regular season, they were outscored by the opposition by 32 runs, which means they had a "deserved" record of 78-84. On top of that, the Astros during the regular season played the weakest schedule in all of MLB, as measured by opponents' average win percentage. 

On another level, this may not be an ideal matchup for Houston. During the regular season, the Astros ranked 27th in MLB in rotation ERA and 17th in bullpen ERA. The White Sox offense, meantime, ranked fifth in MLB in runs scored and ninth in OPS. The Astros may be the division champs, the higher seed, and the hosts in this series, but they're the weaker team by a substantial margin. 

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Red Sox at Yankees: Will the Yankees score enough runs without Aaron Judge?

At this juncture, it's not certain whether Aaron Judge will be on the Yankees' Wild Card Series roster because of a calf injury that's had him on the IL since Sept. 16. Even if he is activated, will he be compromised to some extent? That's fair to ask, and it's the biggest question by far in this series.

The Yanks and Sox boast two of the top rotations in the postseason, so runs figure to be hard to come by. If Judge isn't himself or isn't even active, can the Yankees muster enough offense to advance? The 34-year-old back-to-back MVP hasn't been up to his usual standards when healthy this season, and he also hasn't been healthy all that much (he also missed three months with a rib fracture). That said, he still has a 140 OPS+ in 2026, which means he's a highly valuable presence in the Yankee lineup even when not producing at customary levels. 

On that point, Yankee hitters other than Judge have combined for a .719 OPS this season. That would rank 15th in MLB. That's not terrible, but it's also not really good. A welcome development from the Yankee standpoint would be for Ben Rice to hit as he did in the first half of the season. The larger point may be that even a Judge-less Yankees lineup is still likely to be more potent than Boston's, but having Judge in there would certainly help matters. 

Cubs at Padres: Will the Padres' rotation depth be tested? 

The leading plot here is the Cubs' powerhouse offense against the deep and devastating San Diego bullpen, which figures to do a lot of heavy lifting in this series. The implication is that the Padres' rotation isn't entirely settled right now. Ace Michael King will get the call in Game 1, and Game 2 figured to go to Nick Pivetta, who is something of an uncertain proposition given that he's been limited to just eight starts and 34 ⅔ innings this season because of elbow problems. 

Things get really dicey if there's a Game 3. Do the Padres start Walker Buehler and his 4.63 ERA? Or deadline addition Robbie Ray, who has a 5.02 ERA since the trade? Ideally, King and Pivetta will be able to give manager Craig Stammen some length, so he can lean heavily on Mason Miller and company in the deciding Game 3, should the series go that far. Even before a potential Game 3, though, the Padres' starting pitchers will be heavily tested by a Cubs offense that's humming all over again with the return of Alex Bregman.