Europe records at least 35,000 more deaths from heat

SWELTERING SUMMER: The true figure is likely to be much higher, as it only covers about half of the continent and does not include August totals

At least 35,000 more people died during Europe’s four record-breaking, back-to-back heat waves this summer than would normally be expected, according to incomplete figures from barely half the continent.

Excess mortality in three of the EU’s larger countries — Germany, France and Spain — alone has already exceeded 25,000, according to the provisional national figures, and experts say the toll would rise significantly once this month’s totals are consolidated.

The consecutive heat waves across western Europe since May shattered all-time historical temperature records across hundreds of weather stations, and France recorded its hottest national average day on record.

An aerial photograph shows boats stranded on the parched bed of Brenets Lake, part of the Doubs River, in Les Brenets, Switzerland, on Aug. 11.

Photo: AFP

Records fell for three straight days in Germany in late June, when 46 stations topped 40°C, while Spain endured persistent highs above 42°C. Scientists say human-made global heating is making such extreme events more frequent and intense.

The death toll is highest in Germany, which late last week reported an estimated 14,000 heat-related deaths from April 6 to Aug. 9. The Robert Koch Institute public health agency said 9,600 people had died in the week of June 22 to 28 alone.

Systematically compiled EU-wide excess mortality figures, available since 2008, show the only other summer week in which a higher rate of additional deaths has been recorded was in July 2022, when COVID-19 was still active.

Visitors sitting on a bench look out at the sun-scorched grass at Hampton Court in southwest London on Thursday last week.

Photo: AFP

Figures from the Carlos III health institute’s mortality monitoring system suggest 4,947 deaths in Spain from May to this week can be attributed to heat, making this year Spain’s worst year on record for heat-related deaths, exceeding the 4,520 recorded in 2022.

Different countries calculate and present their data in different ways. Spain and Germany model estimated heat-related deaths in real time, comparing daily temperatures and mortality rates to calculate deaths attributable to heat. Such estimations are necessary because heat is rarely stated as a direct cause of death. In most cases, heat aggravates a pre-existing health condition.

France, where more than 500 weather stations recorded temperatures higher than 40°C and at one stage 98 percent of the country was under heat alerts, reported an initial “all causes” excess death figure and definitive attribution later.

Its national health agency last week said that “all cause” excess deaths from late May to July 22 stood at 7,300. Figures for this month were not yet available and initial data were based on electronic death certificates, which account for only 80 percent of total mortality, it said.

Italy, whose national heat surveillance system uses local municipal data, meaning it is often subject to significant delays, has so far only reported incomplete real-time indicators rather than a consolidated national death toll.

Modeling suggests 2,700 more people died than usual from June 22 to 28 alone and epidemiologists have said the country’s total heat-attributable death toll would probably be between 5,000 and 8,000 by the time it is formally recorded.

Other European countries to have already reported excess death tolls include the UK, where the health security agency last month said that its modeling suggested the May and June heat waves had resulted in 2,877 heat-associated fatalities in England.

Belgium has said its preliminary data showed it recorded a 39 percent increase in mortality from June 18 to 29, equating to 1,222 additional deaths, and the Netherlands has said at least 900 more people than usual died from June 22 to July 5.

A rapid modeling study cited by the European Commission estimates that 1,070 more people than usual died in Poland during the late-June heat wave, and Swiss public health authority data suggests excess heat-related deaths of 220 in the same week.

Early figures from Luxembourg, Greece, Romania, Bulgaria and Denmark indicate about 40 excess deaths in each of those countries. Agence France-Presse has calculated that areas inhabited by more than 80 million Europeans experienced temperatures above 40<<0>>C this summer.

The WHO said in May that heat-related mortality in its European region had increased by more than 30 percent over the past 20 years and was on course to climb significantly as a result of the climate crisis and population aging.