Middle East crude exports recover to near pre-war levels but oil products still lag, analysts say

Middle East crude oil exports have rebounded to 17.5M bbl/day on a 10-day average, or 98% of pre-war levels, despite continued risks to shipping, J.P. Morgan analysts said this week, supported by restored flows through Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and greater use of alternative export routes.

Data from ship tracker Kpler also pointed to a substantial recovery, saying at least 16.5M bbl/day of crude left the Gulf region in September, in line with pre-war levels when excluding Iran and 10.5M bbl/day above March's monthly average, when the Iran war initially choked off exports.

Before the war, 83% of Middle East crude crossed the Strait of Hormuz, but ~40% left the region without crossing the strait last month, according to Kpler, resulting in an export system with three exits: 60% of September's crude physically transited Hormuz, 23% was loaded outside the strait—primarily off the Gulf of Oman—and 17% left through the Red Sea.

Much of the crude that still crosses Hormuz no longer stays aboard the same tanker, instead using shuttle tankers and ship-to-ship transfers.

Iran's oil exports have been virtually wiped out by the U.S. naval blockade, as crude loadings fell to zero in September from ~250K bbl/day in August, compared to ~1.7M bbl/day before the war, according to preliminary tanker-tracking estimates compiled by Bloomberg; Kpler and Vortexa also recorded zero crude loadings last month.

Iran continued to ship oil to some Chinese refineries from floating storage east of Singapore in September, Bloomberg reported, but Treasury Secretary Bessent has estimated that Iran will run out of this oil later this month.

The export recovery has somewhat eased concerns over global supplies, limiting oil-price gains; front-month West Texas Intermediate November futures have declined for two consecutive weeks.

However, analysts say the increase in Middle East exports does not mean the market has returned to normal, as fuel shortages, uncertainty over access through Hormuz, and regional security risks continue to constrain the physical market.

Even as crude supply has largely normalized, the availability of diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel remains constrained, with J.P. Morgan estimating Middle East product flows at 3M bbl/day, or 58% of pre-war levels, due to infrastructure damage and higher risks of flammability.

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