Despite US sanctions on Iranian flights, up to forty a day may still fly to Iraq’s Najaf - analysis

Iraq has become central to Iran's strategic chessboard in the region as Tehran seeks to expand its influence while navigating increasing US sanctions.

As part of the US's economic pressure campaign against Iran, there has been a push to prevent Iranian airlines from flying to various countries. This has been largely successful, and Iran has stopped flying to many destinations. However, one country stands out. Iraqi leaders tend to be close to Iran and have historically helped Iran, including in efforts to evade sanctions.

Now Iraq will continue to enable Iranian flights, but it has sought a workaround for the US policy by routing all the flights to the holy city of Najaf. The concept is that the flights can now pose as “pilgrimage” flights for Shi’ites. It appears that the US will accept this for now, as US forces left Iraq on September 30 and Washington has no interest in igniting a crisis with Baghdad over the flights.

According to Rudaw media in Iraq, the country “announced on Friday that it had secured a US sanctions waiver allowing Iranian carriers to operate up to 40 flights daily to and from Najaf International Airport per day, excluding Mahan Air, a week after flights were suspended.”

Iraqi PM praises US cooperation on Najaf flight exemption

The goal is to ease “travel for passengers, particularly for humanitarian, medical, tourism and educational purposes.” Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al Zaidi has supported this. His efforts "resulted in an agreement allowing Iranian airlines to operate 40 daily flights to and from Najaf International Airport, with the exception of Mahan Air," his office noted.

His office added that “as part of the governmental efforts aimed at facilitating the movement of travelers and visitors arriving in Iraq or departing from it, and supporting humanitarian, medical, tourism, and educational aspects, and with persistent follow-up by the Prime Minister, Mr. Ali Falih Al-Zaidi, regarding the file to resume flights for Iranian airlines to and from Najaf International Airport, through a series of communications and follow-ups with the relevant parties.”

Iraq’s leader says he appreciates the US in this context, describing Washington’s response as positive. “This cooperation reflects the importance of dialogue and understanding in addressing files with a humanitarian dimension, and confirms that diplomatic channels and responsible communication are capable of finding practical solutions that take into account people's interests and needs.”

Iranian Mahan Air sanctioned since 2011 over IRGC activity

Meanwhile, Rudaw also noted that “Mahan Air has been under US sanctions since 2011 over what Washington says is its support for Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds Force (IRGC-QF), including transporting personnel, weapons and military equipment. The Iraqi statement did not specify why the airline was excluded from the waiver. Commercial flights between Iran and Iraq, including the Kurdistan Region, were suspended last week as Iraqi airports moved to comply with tightened US sanctions targeting Tehran’s aviation sector.”

Rudaw also said that “the agreement follows an earlier measure on Tuesday, when the US Treasury Department granted Iraqi Airways a highly restrictive license to operate flights between Najaf and Iran for religious pilgrims, valid until the authorized transactions are completed or October 28, whichever comes first.”

Iraq’s ability to navigate US sanctions is important. It shows how Iraq is trying to hedge, working with the US after the US withdrawal, and also working with Iran. Iraq is very much a center of the chessboard in the region as Iran seeks to expand is influence and threats. Iran is also suffering setbacks at sea. Tehran will want to keep a firm grip on Iraq.