AM Markets Need to Know: Trump weighs Iran conflict, AI trade faces reversal, and more

Stock index futures were lower on Thursday as prospects for a peace agreement between Iran and the United States appeared difficult after President Donald Trump said a deal with Iran was “not really something” he wants.

Here are the five news items investors should watch:

Trump signals limited interest in Iran deal: U.S. President Donald Trump said a deal with Iran is “not really something” he wants, even as indirect negotiations continue. The Pentagon has also directed U.S. Central Command to prepare for a possible resumption of major combat operations, Axioms reported, citing U.S. officials. The developments add geopolitical risk for markets and could affect energy prices if tensions escalate.

AI trade faces potential 2027 reversal: Panmure Liberum strategist Joachim Klement warned that the AI-driven market rally could unravel as soon as 2027, potentially sending the S&P 500 to 5,000 by year-end. That would represent about 36% downside from current levels and makes Klement the most bearish among eight strategists tracked by Bloomberg. He also sees the Stoxx 600 falling more than 30%.

Bitcoin selloff spreads across crypto: Bitcoin (BTC-USD) fell nearly 3% to about $83K, while Ethereum (ETH-USD) dropped more than 5% to roughly $2.56K. XRP (XRP-USD) declined about 5%, and Solana (SOL-USD) lost more than 3%. CoinGlass data showed about 1.25M traders were liquidated over 24 hours, with total liquidations reaching $717.58M, highlighting the impact of leverage.

UPS misrouted F-35 components: UPS (UPS) mistakenly routed sensitive Lockheed Martin (LMT) F-35 components through Hong Kong after an employee missed a warning that the shipment was subject to U.S. arms-export restrictions, Bloomberg News reported. The shipment included a cockpit canopy and weapons-bay door with radar-absorbing material. The incident could raise scrutiny over compliance with International Traffic in Arms Regulations.

Exxon targets Trinidad oil expansion: ExxonMobil (XOM) is seeking to build on its Guyana success with exploration offshore Trinidad and Tobago, its global exploration chief told the Financial Times. Exxon secured a production-sharing agreement within seven months and arranged seismic work in six months, faster than typical timelines. The push highlights the company's effort to accelerate new upstream opportunities as it expands beyond Guyana.