Large majority of Israelis fear an October 7-style attack from the West Bank, poll finds

A majority of Israelis fear that an October 7-style terrorist attack may originate from the West Bank, according to findings released by the Jerusalem Center for Foreign Affairs and Security (JCFA) on Monday.

The findings show that 77% of Israelis, including 86% of Jewish Israelis, are afraid that Palestinian Authority security forces could conduct a large-scale attack much like Hamas did on October 7, 2023.

The study further found that 75% of Jewish Israelis, among 67% of all Israelis, oppose the establishment of a Palestinian state along the 1967 lines.

Earlier on Monday, Defense Minister Israel Katz announced that, should Israel identify a plan to launch an "October-7 style" attack, he and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have directed the IDF to target senior PA officials in an "all-out war" on terrorism in the West Bank.

"If the security apparatuses of the Palestinian Authority and the bodies associated with them launch, or we know for certain that they are about to launch, an October 7-style terrorist attack against forces and Jewish settlements, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and I instructed the IDF to prepare to launch an all-out war against senior officials and mechanisms of the [Palestinian] Authority, the bodies associated with them, and against all terrorist infrastructure in Judea and Samaria - in order to quickly bring about their complete defeat," said Katz.

JCFA warns of potential for Oct. 7-style attack by PA in West Bank

The release of the findings follows the “turning the guns” warning issued by the JCFA on July 15, when a study by Lt.-Col. (res.) Maurice Hirsch noted the buildup of the PA's military capabilities.

According to Hirsch's findings, the PA security forces have grown to a size 133% larger than that permitted by the Oslo Accords, reaching a total of about 70,000 personnel, 40,000 more than the number allowed by the agreement.

The study noted that, in the West Bank, the over 50,000 armed PA personnel breach the permitted amount by approximately 400%, with their arms including rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs) and shoulder-launched missiles.

Four potential routes, each totaling around 22 kilometers in length, were identified by the study through which the forces could reach Israeli civilians in a relatively short period of time.

The poll was conducted in cooperation between JCFA and Lazar Research, surveying a representative sample of 703 respondents between September 2 and 4.