Geopolitics, China, and AI to test India’s 2047 ambitions: CEA Nageswaran

India must prepare for a tougher path to developed-economy status by 2047, the chief economic adviser said, citing five forces reshaping its prospects: geopolitics, supply-chain dependencies, China’s industrial scale, climate volatility, and AI alongside demographic change.

New Delhi: The global order is increasingly characterised by power and bargaining rather than rules, requiring India to negotiate from a position of strength and build coalitions it can help influence, the government’s top economic adviser said, identifying five factors that would test the country’s ambition of becoming a developed economy by 2047.

These five long-term shifts, including geopolitical realignment, strategic supply-chain chokepoints, China’s manufacturing scale, climate variability, and the interplay between demography and artificial intelligence (AI), will shape India's path to becoming a rich nation by the centenary of its independence, Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) V. Anantha Nageswaran said on Thursday.

Speaking at the India Investment Seminar 2026 in Mumbai, Nageswaran said these shifts would make India’s climb harder than it was for earlier latecomers, but were “reasons to move faster, not to slow down.”

On strategic chokepoints, Nageswaran's presentation identified energy, chips, rare earths, fertilisers and sea-lanes as potential sources of leverage, arguing that India needs buffers and redundancy because such redundancy should be viewed as insurance rather than waste, according to a press release issued by SBI Funds Management Ltd, one of the organisers of the seminar.

Scale of manufacturing

He also highlighted the scale of China’s manufacturing sector, noting that the country accounts for close to a third of global manufacturing and that surplus capacity can be exported cheaply. For India, the answer is to compete on capability and depth rather than cost alone, the presentation said.

Climate change was identified not merely as a warming problem but as one involving greater variability in monsoons and heat, with implications for insurance. The presentation said India would need to adapt domestically while contesting measures such as carbon border taxes abroad.

The fifth shift concerns demography and AI. With the workforce expected to peak as machines arrive, the presentation said India cannot rely indefinitely on the traditional cheap-labour route and needs to convert its demographic numbers into skills, making skilling part of industrial policy.

Nageswaran’s remarks came at a two-day seminar organised by SBI Funds Management Ltd and Europe's asset management company Amundi, which brought together more than 100 international institutional investors and Amundi clients to discuss India’s growth and investment opportunities. The opening day focused on India’s ambition of becoming a developed economy by 2047, with Nageswaran highlighting structural reforms, productivity and capability building as important to sustaining long-term growth.

Role in supporting growth

State Bank of India (SBI) chairman C.S. Setty said India’s financial system has a role in supporting growth and financial inclusion through digital public infrastructure and by expanding access to credit, insurance and investment products. He highlighted SBI’s subsidiaries across banking and financial services, including SBI Funds Management, SBI Life Insurance and SBI Card.

Former G20 Sherpa Amitabh Kant discussed India’s manufacturing opportunity amid changing global supply chains, while Rahul Bharti of Maruti Suzuki spoke about the company’s four-decade journey and long-term international partnerships.

Dipesh Shah, executive director at the International Financial Services Centres Authority, said India was emerging as a global investment platform, with GIFT IFSC creating an internationally competitive ecosystem for global investors and institutions to access India and manage India-focused assets.

SBI Funds Management managing director and chief executive officer (MD &CEO) Debasish Mishra said opportunities were expanding across manufacturing, infrastructure, technology and financial markets, while Amundi deputy CEO Olivier Mariée said India’s economic transformation presented significant opportunities for long-term global investors.

About the Author

Harsh Kumar is a policy reporter at Mint (HT Media Group), where he covers the Ministry of Commerce and Industry along with key departments of the Ministry of Finance, including the Department of Economic Affairs (DEA) and the Department of Financial Services (DFS). With over five years of experience in business and economic journalism, he has developed strong expertise in tracking policy developments and their wider economic impact.<br><br>He has previously worked with Business Standard, Moneycontrol, and Outlook Money, where he reported extensively on banking, financial services, and the broader economy. Over the years, he has built a reputation for delivering accurate, insightful, and impactful stories, supported by a keen eye for detail and a consistent track record of breaking exclusive news.<br><br>An alumnus of Jamia Millia Islamia, Harsh closely follows regulatory changes and key economic trends shaping India’s financial and industrial landscape. His reporting aims to simplify complex policy issues for a wider audience while maintaining depth and credibility.<br><br>Outside of work, he enjoys tracking policy developments, finding scoops, and travelling, reflecting his curiosity about how economic decisions shape everyday life.

^{Get Latest real-time updates}

Stay updated with the latest Trending, India, World and US news.

HomeNewsGeopolitics, China, and AI to test India’s 2047 ambitions: CEA Nageswaran