'Slightly ominous’ sign that England could be set for an early flu season

England could be set for an early flu season with hospital admissions at a “high” level for this time of year, according to health officials.

The NHS National Medical Director, Professor Frankie Swords, warned there were “slightly ominous” signs of winter pressure for the health service.

While levels of flu are currently low, figures from September have been higher than the same period for the last four years, according to the first weekly winter respiratory virus surveillance report by the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA). Trends have been rising since August, with increases being driven by young adults.

Prof Swords told a briefing: “From an NHS perspective, it is very early in the season, but the number of admissions for flu are the highest that I can remember seeing at this time of year, and it’s coincided with just the start of the expected increase in Covid cases in our hospitals.

“But this is coming on the back of the busiest summer we’ve ever had in our emergency departments; we have got very, very busy hospitals.

“So slightly ominous early signs of winter pressure.”

UKHSA figures show hospital admissions for flu were 1.97 per 100,000 for the week to October 4.

There are three types of flu virus, and while it is too early to know which one may dominate this winter, the current vaccine protects against all three.

Early data show there is an equal mix of subtypes A(H3N2) and A(H1N1) in England, the UKHSA said.

Prof Swords revealed 3.9 million people have already had their flu vaccination since the start of last month.

The NHS started vaccinating pregnant women, toddlers and school-age children from September 1, with over 65s and other eligible adults offered it from October 1.

“In September, on average, 95 per cent of our occupancy was used every day, and that’s September,” Prof Swords added.

“So although the weather’s still nice, and perhaps people aren’t thinking too much about flu at the moment, please, we are acting early, and I’d really encourage people to act early.

“Because winter is coming, and the pressure is going to build and rise as temperatures fall.”

Symptoms of flu

NHS

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Flu symptoms come on very quickly and can include:

• a sudden high temperature
• an aching body
• feeling tired or exhausted
• a dry cough
• a sore throat
• a headache
• difficulty sleeping
• loss of appetite

Analysis suggests that the vaccination programme in England last winter prevented around 100,000 hospital admissions and 7,000 deaths.

Elsewhere, the UKHSA report shows that Covid-19 activity is also increasing, but is still at low levels.

This includes the so-called “American strain”, or XFG, which is closely related to strains seen in the UK for more than a year.

Dr Alex Allen, consultant epidemiologist at UKHSA, said: “There’s been quite a lot of interest in the so-called American strain, which has also been called Stratus or the XFG strain.

“That’s been circulating in some form or another in the UK for over a year now, and it’s only in the last couple of months we’ve actually seen this increased activity.

“There’s nothing particularly in the evidence or data that suggests that this American strain or XFG is more severe or more likely to cause severe illness.

“The current running autumn vaccination programme has vaccines that are specifically targeted against the XFG strain… we’re expecting that to have a significant protective effect.”

Meanwhile, the Government has announced a £33.2 million investment to help protect against future pandemic threats.

The programme will target diseases such as Ebola and plague, amid overseas outbreaks, with eight projects set to advance promising vaccines, trials and technologies.

The scheme, backed by UK Vaccine Network and delivered through Innovate UK, previously supported the development of the Oxford/AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine.