Milei in dead heat with Peronism, one year out from election, polls show

One year out from Argentina’s next presidential election, the race remains wide open.

Recent polling data reveals a competitive, polarised political landscape, with President Javier Milei locked in a technical tie with the opposition Peronist coalition. All the surveys consulted indicate that a second round run-off is likely, pointing to a ‘libertarian-Peronist’ showdown echoing the 2023 election.

Breaking down five national surveys taken over the last month crudely, the head of state and his La Libertad Avanza coalition scored an average voting intention of roughly 32 percent, with around 31 percent preferring a united Peronist front. 

For many analysts, the opposition is likely to be represented by Buenos Aires Province Governor Axel Kicillof, who is widely seen as the frontrunner to win the nomination and is the highest-performing Peronist in the five surveys.

Nearly all of the reports analysed – which were produced by firms including Proyección Consultores, Analogías, QSocial/QMonitor, Zentrix, and Universidad de San Andrés – produced similar results, with the gap between the two leading candidates falling within the margin of error.

Highlighting his distinct personal appeal, the President does slightly better in surveys when his popularity is measured compared to his party; the reverse applies to Peronism, which performs better as a collective.

Undecideds, third way

Polling indicates a substantial pool of uncommitted voters and an appetite for a ‘third way’ alternative between the libertarian and Peronist poles.

A recent additional study by the Córdoba-based Grupo Feedback consultancy firm showed that while 29.3 percent of respondents said they would back President Milei’s re-election, 23.4 percent of voters were still undecided.

This group of voters is apparent across all surveys. Proyección Consultores identified 19.7 percent in its survey, with the figure rising to 21.4 percent in the Analogías poll. As many as four in 10 said they were unsure or would cast blank ballots in the Zentrix Consultora survey.

The online survey carried out by the QSocial consultancy firm last month and consulting 1,650 people found that while 37 percent wanted a Peronist victory in 2027 and 28 percent sought Milei’s re-election, 26 percent – one in four respondents – preferred a new political force.

Economic pressures, polling slump

The President has dropped in the polls in recent months as Argentina’s economic improvement has stalled. 

While the Milei administration has successfully brought down monthly inflation rates from two-digit peaks to around two percent, growth projections have been downgraded, economic activity has slowed and unemployment is rising. Wages have not improved and household incomes are weakening, weighing on consumer confidence. 

Surveys show the impact on Milei’s popularity. In the most recent LatAm Pulse survey from September, conducted by AtlasIntel for Bloomberg, President Milei's approval rating rose to 38.5 percent, though disapproval reached 57.2 percent. That reflects a wider trend in the monthly poll that has appeared since July 2025, when those rejecting his administration of the country consistently rose above 51 percent.

Of those quizzed by AtlasIntel, 54.2 percent said they currently view Milei's government as "bad" or "very bad," compared to 33 percent who described it as "good" or "excellent."

Space for outsider?

Milei, however, is not the only one polling badly – nearly all of the politicians listed in the survey had a negative image. Only the President, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, Myriam Bregman, Axel Kicillof and Patricia Bullrich scored a positive image of more than 30 percent, with the negative reading outweighing the positive in all cases. 

In a September report from Giacobbe & Asociados, featuring surveys concluding in the first week of October, Milei had a negative rating of 56 percent – a technical tie with national deputy Máximo Kirchner, the leader of La Cámpora and son of ex-president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner who is not seen as a viable candidate for the Peronist opposition.

Highlighting the discontent with possible options on the ballot, only La Libertad Avanza Senator Patricia Bullrich produced a negative rating lower than 50 percent.