Predicting full 14-team NFL playoff bracket entering Week 3, including history-making Super Bowl

The early postseason forecast includes several surprises, from two winless AFC South teams getting in to Carolina winning its division with a losing record

Sep 23, 2026 at 7:56 am ET • 7 min read

The best part about making NFL playoff predictions early in the season is that everyone is still very much alive for the playoffs. For instance, just because a team is 0-2 doesn't automatically mean their season is over. As a matter of fact, of the eight 0-2 teams in the NFL right now, we project TWO of them to make the postseason. 

That projection comes from our resident analytics expert, Stephen Oh, who simulated the rest of the 2026 NFL season to see how things will play out. For those of you who are not familiar with Oh's work, he's what you get when you put AI in a human brain. 

With that in mind, let's get to the projections. And just as a reminder, we're projecting what the NFL playoff field will look like at the end of the season. This is NOT the current playoff standings. 

Projected AFC playoff field

With Patrick Mahomes coming off an ACL injury, our projection model wasn't quite sure what to make of the Chiefs going into the season, but after watching Kansas City jump out to a 2-0 start, the computer is sold on them. The Chiefs are now projected to get the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC. The more things change, the more they stay the same. 

1. Chiefs (2-0) -- AFC West champion
2. Bills (2-0) -- AFC East champion
3. Ravens (1-1) -- AFC North champion
4. Texans (0-2) -- AFC South champion
5. Colts (0-2)
6. Broncos (1-1)
7. Bengals (2-0)

The biggest surprise in this week's projections is probably the fact that two 0-2 teams from the AFC South are projected to get in, but the Jaguars aren't. The Jags were in a virtual tie with the Bengals for the final wild-card spot, so the AFC South almost got THREE teams in.

Projected NFC playoff field

In the NFC, the computer has the Rams finishing with the second-best record in the conference, but since Seattle is projected to finish with the best record, that means L.A. will be stuck playing in the wild-card round for the second straight year, according to our projection. 

1. Seahawks (2-0) -- NFC West champion
2. Lions (1-1) -- NFC North champion
3. Eagles (1-1) -- NFC East champion
4. Panthers (1-1) -- NFC South champion
5. Rams (1-1)
6. Vikings (2-0)
7. 49ers (2-0) 

The biggest change from last week is that the Panthers are now projected to win the NFC South. The computer views them as a slight favorite over the Saints, and the best part of this projection might be the fact that we have the Panthers winning the division with a record of just 7-10. Only two seven-win teams have ever made the postseason, and coincidentally, the last one was the Panthers in 2014, when they finished 7-8-1. 

Also, the Bears are now projected to miss the playoffs following their Week 2 loss to Minnesota. It doesn't help that Caleb Williams could end up missing a game or two after injuring his hamstring in that game.

Now that we know who's in the playoffs, let's see who's going to make it to Super Bowl LXI. 

Wild-card round

AFC

• (2) Bills 28-24 over (7) Bengals. The last time these two teams met in the playoffs, the Bengals went into Buffalo and destroyed the Bills, but the computer doesn't see that happening this time around.  
• (6) Broncos 22-21 over (3) Ravens. In our first big upset of the playoffs, our simulation has the Broncos going into Baltimore and knocking off the Ravens. In the game, the Broncos' defense holds Lamar Jackson in check, and Bo Nix does just enough to lead Denver to the win.
• (4) Texans 27-23 over (5) Colts. These two teams are actually playing each other in Week 3 and the loser is going to fall to 0-3. Despite that fact, the computer still has both teams making it to the postseason and it has the Texans advancing here. 

NFC

• (2) Lions 28-25 over (7) 49ers. The biggest surprise of the opening round might be this game. The 49ers have looked pretty good through two weeks, but the computer has the Lions winning a tight one to advance to the divisional round.  
• (3) Eagles 21-17 over (6) Vikings. The Vikings haven't made it past the wild-card round this decade, and that drought will continue with a loss to the Eagles here, according to our projection. 
  
• (5) Rams 27-21 over (4) Panthers. These two teams met in the wild card last year, with the Rams winning, and the computer sees the same thing happening this season. 

And now, we're down to our final eight teams. 

Divisional round

AFC

• (1) Chiefs 21-19 over (6) Broncos. With a win here, the Broncos would advance to the AFC title game for the second straight season, but the computer has them coming up just short in their bid to stun the Chiefs in Kansas City. The Chiefs dominated the Broncos 31-10 in Week 1, but the computer has the game being much closer this time around. 
• (2) Bills 26-20 over (4) Texans. Josh Allen has led the Bills to the AFC title game twice in the past six seasons, and according to our projection, he'll be adding a third appearance to his belt with a win here over a Texans team that the Bills beat 36-31 in Week 1. 

NFC

• (1) Seahawks 23-20 over (5) Rams. This is the playoff match we'll all be rooting for, and according to the computer, we'll be getting it in the divisional round. If this game happens, it would mark the third time in five weeks that the Rams and Seahawks are playing each other since they'll be facing off in Week 16 and Week 18 this year.  
• (2) Lions 25-23 over (3) Eagles. Getting this game at home ends up being huge for a Lions team that tends to struggle in cold weather. After reaching the NFC title game in 2023, the Lions finally find their way back again thanks to this win over the Eagles. 

If you're scoring at home, we are now down to four teams: Two teams that have never won a Super Bowl (Bills and Lions), the team that won the Super Bowl last year (Seahawks), and the team that has won two of the past four Super Bowls (Chiefs). 

Conference title games

AFC Championship

• (1) Chiefs 26-23 over (2) Bills. Josh Allen is 0-4 all-time against the Chiefs in the playoffs, and the city of Buffalo would probably throw a parade for him if he could get that monkey off his back, but alas, there will be no parade as the computer has the Chiefs winning here. The last three postseason games between these two teams have been decided by one score, and our computer has that happening again. 

NFC Championship

• (1) Seahawks 27-21 over (2) Lions. When the Lions made it to the NFC title game in 2023, the only thing standing between them and their first Super Bowl appearance ever was an NFC West team (49ers). This time around, it's more of the same. For the second time in four seasons, the Lions see their Super Bowl dreams get dashed, and this time, it happens at the hands of another NFC West team. 

Super Bowl LXI at SoFi Stadium

• (1) Seahawks 20-19 over (1) Chiefs. This matchup would give us plenty of storylines to talk about heading into the game. For one, there would be a historic element to this game because it would give us the reigning Super Bowl MVP (Kenneth Walker) facing his old team IN A SUPER BOWL for the first time ever. Also, we'd be getting a juicy matchup with one of the NFL's smartest offensive minds (Andy Reid) facing one of the league's smartest defensive minds (Mike MacDonald). It would also give Patrick Mahomes a chance to take one step closer to catching Tom Brady for the most Super Bowl wins. Brady finished his career with seven and a win here would put Mahomes at four. This would also potentially be the final NFL game of Travis Kelce's career and he'd be playing in this game on Valentine's Day, so you can bet Taylor Swift would certainly be shown a time or two on camera. According to our computer, when all is said and done, the SEAHAWKS will become the first NFC team in 30 years to win back-to-back Super Bowls. 

This is the second straight week the Seahawks have been projected to win it all, so the computer definitely likes what it's seeing from Seattle, even without Sam Darnold.