Bowen's 'believe it or not': Should you trust these five players?

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  Matt BowenOct 15, 2026, 06:14 AM ET

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  Matt Bowen is a fantasy football and NFL writer for ESPN. He joined ESPN in 2015, writes regularly for ESPN+ and spent multiple years on "NFL Matchup." After graduating from the University of Iowa, Matt played safety in the NFL for St. Louis, Green Bay, Washington and Buffalo over seven seasons.

There are always narratives in fantasy football. Some good, some bad. And the noise around these narratives can get pretty loud after a breakout game or when a player is going through a slump. But what can we believe, and in whom can we really trust?

Below are statements about five players currently delivering different levels of production. I will provide a verdict -- believe it or don't believe it -- on each statement and explain why I feel that way.

We have three quarterbacks in here: two currently producing high-end numbers but with very different starts to their seasons, and another who is looking to get on track. We'll also discuss a big-play wide receiver who put on an absolute show in Week 5 and an elite volume receiver who hasn't really popped since Week 2.

Here's my version of "believe it or not," fantasy football style.

Brock Purdy has top-five QB upside
Verdict: Believe it

Purdy survived back-to-back matchups with the Denver and Seattle defenses in Weeks 4 and 5, scoring 17.9 fantasy PPG, with multiple touchdown throws in each. That's a positive to pass those tests (as more are looming later in the schedule). And after five weeks, Purdy sits at 23.3 fantasy PPG, second only to Josh Allen's 28.6.

Purdy has thrown at least two touchdowns in every game this season, with three or more in two of them. The 49ers are throwing the ball when they are in scoring position, as Purdy's eight red zone touchdown passes are tied for fifth most in the league. Purdy provides a boost in production due to his ability to create as a runner. He's averaging 5.1 carries and has at least 29 rushing yards in four of five games played.

We have to remember that Purdy is also an ideal fit for Kyle Shanahan's offense, throwing with timing and finding the open voids in coverage. Dropback, play-action and movement concepts. He can layer the ball (with touch and pace) to create explosives.

Yes, Purdy will get the Vikings and Seahawks (again) in Weeks 11 and 12, plus the Chiefs are waiting in Week 16 (during the fantasy playoffs). But in this system, with a very favorable stretch coming up (WSH, @ATL, BYE, LV, @DAL), Purdy is primed to produce big-time totals. He has been the one of the best quarterbacks I've watched on tape this season.

Christian Watson will finish as a top-12 WR
Verdict: Believe it

It's easier to talk about players after a big game, right? Sure. And that's what we got from Watson in the Week 5 win over Chicago.

Watson dropped 32.3 points on the Bears, catching six of eight targets for 143 yards and two touchdowns. Watson had three receptions of 30 or more yards in this one, too, on vertical shots from quarterback Jordan Love. Watson will also have more of those opportunities with his upcoming schedule featuring Dallas, Detroit and Carolina -- three defenses that struggle to defend the deep ball.

But let's remember that Watson has scored 32 or more points twice this season. That's the breakout week potential he brings to the lineup. And while the explosive play ability really jumps on the tape, Watson has more branches to use in his route tree. He can separate on underneath throws and out cuts, plus the Packers can get him loose on boot concepts, in-breakers and more.

We all know the injury history with Watson. And it's pretty deep. But if he can stay on the field, Watson is the type of player who can turn decent volume (eight targets per game) into big-time numbers given his ability to flip the field and find the end zone. He has scored at least one touchdown in four of five games played.

Drake Maye still has top-10 QB upside
Verdict: Don't believe it

After a really shaky start (7.2 fantasy PPG from Weeks 1 through 3), Maye has taken advantage of positive matchups the past two weeks versus the Bills and Raiders, scoring 32.8 PPG thanks to seven TD passes (compared to just one interception).

We are seeing Maye use his running ability, rushing for 39.5 yards per game -- with one score -- during this stretch. The tape meshes with the numbers, too, as Maye is throwing with much better timing, while picking his spots to scramble. And the upcoming schedule (NYJ, @CHI, @MIA, GB, @DET) gives Maye more matchups to exploit.

However, once the Patriots come off the Week 11 bye, the schedule flips for Maye. From Weeks 12 through 17, which includes the fantasy playoffs, Maye gets the Chargers, Bills, Vikings, Chiefs, Jets and Broncos. There are some matchups in this stretch where Maye can give you 20-plus points. I get that. But overall? Some tough defenses to play against, which will keep Maye out of the top 10 by season's end.

Amon-Ra St. Brown will still finish as a top-three WR in PPG
Verdict: Believe it

By his standards, St. Brown's numbers over the past three weeks have been pretty underwhelming, no? During this stretch, with matchups versus the Jets, Panthers and Cardinals, St. Brown has scored 13.4 PPG. He had fewer than 16 fantasy points in three straight games for the first time since Weeks 12 through 14 of the 2024 season. That's a steep drop from the 32.0 PPG he racked up in Weeks 1 and 2.

But I don't have any real concern here when I look at St. Brown's overall usage in one of the league's most explosive offenses.

Over these past three weeks, St. Brown got 10.0 targets per game (26.8% team target share). Plus, he's seeing the ball in scoring position, with at least one end zone target in each game during this stretch and a red zone target share of 40%.

So, while the production has been down, St. Brown remains the featured target in Detroit. And you need to look no further than the traits here, as St. Brown is one the league's best at creating separation to the ball in an offense that leans on rhythm throws from Jared Goff.

The Lions are on a bye this week, but I would bet on St. Brown -- with his steady usage and talent -- to finish near the top (again) when this season wraps up. And if someone in your league is looking to trade St. Brown after this slow stretch, don't hesitate to go get him.

Jalen Hurts still has top-10 QB upside
Verdict: Don't believe it

Managers drafted Hurts as a high-end QB1 because of his dual-threat ability and touchdown upside as a runner. However, Hurts has rushed for at least 30 yards just once through five weeks, and he's scored only one touchdown on the ground. Plus, his overall rushing usage has declined, especially in scoring position. Hurts has logged two carries inside the 5-yard line this season, compared to 30 attempts over the past two seasons.

The Eagles are experiencing an in-season transition on the offensive line, while WR DeVonta Smith and RB Saquon Barkley have missed time with hamstring injuries. That's not ideal for the offense. But without the higher-level passing numbers to offset his lack of rushing upside, Hurts (13.0 fantasy PPG over his past three games) shouldn't be started in 10-team leagues. And he could be a cut candidate soon.