Notre Dame vs. North Carolina betting preview: Odds, picks, predictions for Week 5 college football

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The No. 3 Irish hit the road to face Bill Belichick's North Carolina squad in Week 5

Oct 3, 2026 at 8:00 am ET • 3 min read

Notre Dame heads to Chapel Hill in Week 5 of the 2026 college football season for a showdown with North Carolina on Saturday, Oct. 3 at 12 p.m. ET. The Irish are 4-0 on the season and are looking to make the College Football Playoff after being left out a year ago, while the Tar Heels are 2-1 to start Bill Belichick's second season as head coach. Notre Dame demolished Purdue 49-10 in Week 4 and has moved up to No. 3 in the latest poll, while North Carolina is coming into this matchup after having an open week. The Tar Heels lost their last game against Clemson 28-20. Bet on Notre Dame vs. UNC in Week 5 at DraftKings and get $150 in bonus bets when you spend $5+:

The Irish and Tar Heels last met in 2022, a 45-32 Notre Dame victory despite then-UNC quarterback Drake Maye throwing five touchdown passes. We'll go over the latest Notre Dame vs. UNC odds from DraftKings Sportsbook and highlight our best bet for the contest with help from the SportsLine Projection Model. The model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times. It enters Week 5 on a 32-24 run on all top-rated college football picks at betting sites, returning nearly $600 for $100 players. Anybody following its picks on college football betting sites could have seen strong returns. 

Notre Dame vs. UNC betting odds (via DraftKings)

Notre Dame vs. UNC money line:	Notre Dame -1650, UNC +950
Notre Dame vs. UNC Over/Under:	47.5 (Over -108, Under -112)
Notre Dame vs. UNC spread:	Notre Dame -21

Notre Dame vs. UNC betting preview

CJ Carr continues to be a steady presence at quarterback for Notre Dame, throwing for 963 yards and nine touchdowns over the first four games with one interception. Notre Dame's running game remains solid with Aneyas Williams, Nolan James Jr. and Jonaz Walton all contributing. Micah Gilbert, who had less than 100 receiving yards in 2025, is the team's leading receiver with 334 yards through four games. The Irish have been exceptional on defense, allowing just 8.3 points per game. And yet, this is probably the first true test for Marcus Freeman's group.

North Carolina was not expected to do much in Belichick's second season after a 4-8 campaign last year but the Tar Heels stunned TCU in Week 0 in Ireland and were a rain delay away from topping Clemson. Billy Edwards Jr. has not been a star at quarterback, but he's playing relatively clean football. Benjamin Hall and Demon June have formed a nice running back tandem, and North Carolina's defense is 20th in points allowed. Throw in a home crowd looking for Belichick to get his first signature win as North Carolina's head coach and you've got the recipe for a potential upset.

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Notre Dame vs. UNC picks, prediction

Over 47.5

The SportsLine model has the Irish covering the three-touchdown spread in 57% of simulations and winning outright in 88% of them, but I think an over/under bet is the way to go here. Even for a team as balanced and talented as Notre Dame, three touchdowns on the road is a tall ask. Belichick is coming off a bye week and his team has had extra time to prepare for arguably the biggest home game of his tenure. North Carolina's defense has shown it can hold its own, and the Tar Heels have the running backs to keep the Irish from unleashing their pass rushers on Edwards Jr. routinely. The model has the Over on 47.5 hitting in 55.3% of simulations and I'll lean that way, but don't be surprised if this turns into a defensive slugfest.