IMF forecasts Thailand growth at 2.1% in 2026, among ASEAN’s slowest

Thailand’s economy is projected to grow by 2.1% in 2026, placing it among the slowest-growing economies in Southeast Asia and ahead of only Myanmar and Brunei, according to the International Monetary Fund’s latest forecasts.

The IMF’s October 2026 World Economic Outlook, released during the IMF-World Bank Group Annual Meetings in Bangkok, projects Vietnam to lead the region with 8.4% growth, four times Thailand’s forecast rate.

Malaysia is projected to grow by 5.2%, followed by Indonesia at 5.1%, Singapore at 5%, Laos at 4.5%, Timor-Leste at 4%, the Philippines at 3.4% and Cambodia at 3%. Myanmar’s economy is forecast to expand by 2%, while Brunei is projected to grow by 1.9%.

Despite Thailand’s relatively weak outlook compared with its regional peers, the IMF has upgraded its forecast from earlier estimates. Its April 2026 World Economic Outlook projected growth of 1.5%, while an Article IV Consultation assessment released in February forecast 1.6%.

The IMF expects Thailand’s economy to maintain the same 2.1% growth rate in 2027, with several ASEAN economies projected to expand more quickly.

Vietnam is forecast to grow by 6.7% in 2027, followed by the Philippines at 5.8%, Indonesia at 5.1%, Cambodia at 4.7%, Malaysia at 4.3%, Laos at 4% and Timor-Leste at 3.8%.