Mindanao feels El Niño pinch: Struggling farms, idle power plants

CAGAYAN DE ORO CITY — At the Cogon Public Market here, 59-year-old vegetable vendor Alma Labajo is already feeling the pinch of a “very strong” El Niño, lamenting high prices as harvests from the city’s hinterland farms dwindle.

“When fewer vegetables reach the market, prices inevitably rise,” Labajo told the Inquirer, noting that resellers are forced to raise prices to keep their business afloat.

Labajo’s struggle is just one symptom of a severe dry spell disrupting livelihoods and basic infrastructure across the country’s southern breadbasket.

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READ: El Niño places 106 areas under state of calamity, affects over 300,000

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As the looming island-wide drought threatens to cripple clean energy production, First Gen Corporation is implementing time-maintenance shutdowns at its 1.6-megawatt Agusan hydroelectric plant in Manolo Fortich, Bukidnon.

With its water supply rapidly evaporating, the 69-year-old Bukidnon facility, which powers roughly 15,000 households, is defenseless against the tightening climate phenomenon due to its strict reliance on “run-of-river” water technology.

Supervising engineer Fern Tigoy told the Inquirer the plant cannot store water, leaving it entirely dependent on whatever flows from the creek into its canal to generate electricity.

Plant head Herson Lacorte noted that the Agusan River’s flow is expected to steadily dwindle starting this month, hitting rock bottom between March and April 2027.

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“We’ve anticipated that the plant will have less generation and revenue,” Lacorte told the Inquirer. “So we take this opportunity to schedule maintenance shutdowns in less time.”

Soaring temperatures have shrunk these rivers and driven up cooling demands, forcing the Mindanao Grid into a yellow alert since last August.

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The heat is also shattering records.

READ: ‘Very strong El Niño’ to persist in PH until early 2027 — Pagasa

The coastal town of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur, hit an all-time peak of 37.5°C on August 9, breaking a 2016 record. Forecasters warn lowland urban hubs — including this city, Davao, General Santos, and Cotabato — could face blistering highs of 39.8°C, while even cooler mountain zones could reach 35.9°C.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) projects the phenomenon to strengthen through late 2026 and persist well into next year.

In Dinagat Islands, authorities have already declared a State of Calamity after August rainfall dropped from a typical 101 to 200mm down to just 0 to 100mm.

According to Pagasa’s outlook for Mindanao’s 27 provinces, rainfall will be below normal in November, before a severe deficit exceeding 60 percent hits at least half of the island by December. Early drought will strike Dinagat Islands and Surigao del Norte before sweeping nearly the entire island by March 2027, leaving only five provinces and cities at the dry-spell stage.

Relief from the skies also appears unlikely. Southern Mindanao is projected to endure 26 to 31 dry days per month. While three to seven tropical cyclones may enter the monitoring area through March, overall cyclone activity is forecast to taper off to near zero by February, offering no replenishment for drying riverbeds and parched reservoirs.

READ: El Niño to bring drought to all provinces by March 2027 — DOST

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State meteorologists have urged local governments, state agencies, farmers, and community leaders across the island to roll out immediate water and power conservation measures and overhaul planting schedules before the drought peaks in early 2027. /coa