Tom Fornelli's College Football Power Ratings: Oregon presents a conundrum
Meanwhile, Alabama moves up the chart after an admirable defeat at the hands of Georgia
• 7 min read
Results are results, but one of the most difficult aspects of creating a reliable power rating is trying to figure out what led to the results and what those results truly mean. Many times this is a fairly simple process.
Team A did this a lot better than Team B, which Team A was expected to do, and Team A wiped the floor with Team B. Case closed.
But then there are cases like what happened with Oregon on Saturday. There is no getting around the fact that Oregon's 2026 season is a disaster at this point. The Ducks were looked at as one of the preseason favorites to win the national title, and now it's not even mid-October, and they're 3-2 with an injured quarterback. As of right now, it's more likely the Ducks will miss the College Football Playoff than make it, let alone win the whole damn thing.
But Saturday's result could also be misleading. Take the unexpected nature of it away and look at it from a 10,000-foot view. Oregon, with its backup QB starting, turned the ball over seven times. The backup performed so poorly that the team went to its third-string QB. So, the Ducks didn't have their starting QB, turned to their third-string QB, and turned the ball over seven times.
And they only lost by two points.
Take your average college football team and imagine it were in the same position with the same results. How many times do you think they're only losing that game by two points? The fact that Oregon even had a chance to win that game late, despite how horrible it had played, is a testament to the talent on the team and what it's capable of when it plays well.
When I sit down to do my ratings, I need to figure out how to adjust my ratings for Oregon, and one thing I need to consider is that Dante Moore could be back for this week's game against Nebraska, and if Dante Moore is at QB, it's a much better football team than the one we saw against UCLA, even if it's not as good as the team we expected it to be.
So, yeah, Oregon fell in my ratings this week, but not nearly as far as you might've thought. Three teams in last week's top 12 are gone, and Oregon isn't one of them.
Title odds via DraftKings
Fornelli Power Ratings
| 1 |  |
| Ohio State's 45-16 win was the textbook case of "let's just get this game out of the way without getting anybody hurt and go get ready for next week." They got Jeremiah Smith his two touchdowns to keep the Heisman case strong and then started preparing for Indiana . Last Week: 1 | Title Odds: +400 | |
| 2 |  |
| Georgia fans will take it as criticism that I was concerned about Gunner Stockton's downfield passing heading into the game, but I was merely commenting on the reality of his performance so far this year. Saturday's performance against Alabama was a bit different! He looked like Lil' Jon out there. It was just shots, shots, shots! Alabama's been a bit of a regular-season bogeyman for the Dawgs under Kirby, but that's two straight victories over their primary rivals in the SEC. Last Week: 2 | Title Odds: +500 | |
| 3 |  |
| I cannot wait for Notre Dame's game against BYU this week just because it'll be a legitimate test. Yes, the Irish have played a more difficult schedule than detractors portray, but they haven't played anybody near playoff caliber. This week they will, and it'll be on the road in a tough environment against a good defense. We will learn far more about the Irish than we have in any other game. Last Week: 3 | Title Odds: +500 | |
| 4 |  |
| One of those fun instances where you lose a game and move up in the power ratings. And it's not just because Texas fell! Though that didn't hurt. Listen, there's nothing about the 20-17 loss to Georgia that makes me concerned about Alabama. That was a quality football game between two very good teams, and neither outclassed the other. Just one team had to lose, and this time it was Bama. Last Week: 5 | Title Odds: +900 | |
| 5 |  |
| The Hurricanes had the week off to prepare for their game against Florida State this weekend, though they didn't really need it. I know the ACC thought they were doing the Canes a favor by giving them a bye between Clemson and FSU, but the smarter move may have been to give it to them ahead of the Notre Dame game. Last Week: 6 | Title Odds: +700 | |
| 6 |  |
| There are a couple of different ways to look at Indiana so far this season. You could point out that they've been in slugfests in both their Big Ten games that weren't against Rutgers , and you could also mention that they played a C+ game on the road against Nebraska and still won. The reality is that this team is still really good, but it's not as good as it was last year. Regardless, it'll need to play better this week if it wants to beat Ohio State, and it just might. Last Week: 7 | Title Odds: +1050 | |
| 7 |  |
| I'd been downgrading Texas' offense bit by bit over the last few weeks, and this week the bottom fell out. Yes, the Longhorns are still No. 7 overall. Yes, they beat Ohio State earlier this season. But if you were to ask me to pick the list of teams I believe could win a national title, and my life was on the line, I'm not putting the Longhorns on the list. There's a separation between them and the six teams above them that didn't exist before. Last Week: 4 | Title Odds: +900 | |
| 8 |  |
| The Utes remain a "don't tell me who you've played but how you've played" team. The competition hasn't been fierce, but Utah is treating teams the way a good team treats those it's supposed to beat. I expect they'll do the same to Colorado this week, and then they'll get their toughest test of the season so far against Houston . Still, I think we'll have to wait until the Holy War against BYU to truly know what this team is capable of, but I remain bullish. Last Week: 10 | Title Odds: +6600 | |
| 9 |  |
| As I went over already, there's a difference between whether I believe the Ducks can make the playoffs at this point and whether I think they're still better than all but one of the teams remaining on their schedule. Last Week: 8 | Title Odds: +7000 | |
| 10 |  |
| This is a sad day for all the Missouri fans who believe I hate Missouri. Here they are in the top 10 of my power ratings. As I've gone over before, things get pretty bunched up among the teams in this area, down to about 15, and then there's another jumble of teams from 16 to 30 that aren't separated by much. But Mizzou has a really good QB, a run game that works no matter who you put in the backfield, two NFL-quality receivers, and a defense that looks a little better every week. They're legit. The schedule has plenty of tough games left, but 10-2 isn't a pipe dream. Last Week: NR | Title Odds: +9000 | |
| 11 |  |
| Trinidad, Trinidad, Trinidad. As long as he's healthy and playing to his capability, the Rebels are one of the most dangerous teams in the country. It feels like the country just kind of moved on from them after the 52-28 loss to Florida , but there were so many things in play there. We can't overstate the emotional letdown after the LSU win. They could beat the Mizzou team I just wrote about this week and follow it up with a road win over Texas, and everybody will be in love again. Last Week: NR | Title Odds: +2500 | |
| 12 |  |
| It's funny to look at power ratings compared to opinion polls. The last few weeks, I've seen other Power Four teams off to nice starts, but without big resume wins, creeping their way into the bottom of the polls. Nebraska never did, though, yet it was Nebraska that's been climbing up my power ratings the entire time. The loss to Indiana actually made me more of a believer. They didn't look like a team that didn't belong. Yes, they blew a 10-point lead late, but to me, that's more about a team that hasn't been in that position before and doesn't know how to close out wins against other really good teams. That takes time to learn, but right now I trust the Huskers more than a lot of other Big Ten teams, which isn't something I've often felt about this team. Of course, now that I've included them here, they will definitely be losing to Oregon by 35 next week. Blame me if it happens, Huskers fans. Last Week: NR | Title Odds: +12000 | |
KioskNews shows a cleaned-up reading view extracted from the publisher’s page — the original always lives on their site, not ours.