The Wargame: What Michael Gove and Sayeeda Warsi learned from simulating a UK war crisis

It’s six months into the future and a Russian attack is unfolding on UK soil: a cyberattack paralyses parts of the NHS, two RAF pilots are murdered and there’s an incident at sea. In a Cobra-style crisis room, a fictional coalition is chaired by former Conservative MPs – Michael Gove (Secretary of State for Levelling Up) as Prime Minister and Baroness Sayeeda Warsi (Senior Minister of State at the Foreign Office) as Attorney General, along with intelligence and defence experts. As questions about investment in our armed forces and Russian aggression hit the real headlines, what did they learn from the simulation in The Wargame?

The show features figures from across the political spectrum, including Nicola Sturgeon, Harriet Harman, Penny Mordaunt as well as former intelligence officer Christopher Steele and General Sir Richard Barrons, former leader of the Joint Forces Command. Why did you get involved?

Michael Gove The others taking part were serious politicians, and the non-politicians were also substantial figures. What intrigued me was trying to show two things: first, a sense of how decisions are taken in government and the way in which almost every decision is between a bad choice and a worse one. Second: to contribute to a well-informed debate about how we should defend ourselves.

Sayeeda Warsi I was in cabinet for Syria and Libya, where we were having to make decisions about war “over there”. I don’t think we completely understand as a government or society how to prepare for a conflict on home turf. For me, this is professional – because I’ve been around the table and know the challenges – as well as personal, because both my grandfathers served and I have a child in our armed forces. You have to keep the human in your head, not just think about numbers. I hope this starts a conversation about our preparedness, not just in terms of defence, but infrastructure, supplies, how we would behave. Are we going to be that nation that has a meltdown over toilet paper, like in Covid? Or a nation that will think: we’re ready for this, we know not to Instagram it, put out false information or assist the propaganda machine by telling people what you saw and where?

What did you learn?

MG The striking thing was how limited resources are in the UK. Many, including active politicians, may be surprised and concerned about how difficult it is to protect civilians in the event of an attack – they may know about Israel’s “Iron Dome” air defence system, but we’re nowhere near that. It also really brought home to me that Nato isn’t a single, reliable bloc. Northern Nato countries are alert and prepared for any attack from Russia, but others are far more ambivalent. It’s nowhere near as robust as we’d like.

How much of The Wargame is a game?

MG The responsibility for making it dramatic lies with the production team. In real life, there would be more scope for questions, more information available, more expertise, so it’s a pared-down version, but you make it work by reacting as closely as possible to a politician in the room. It would have been absurd if I behaved like I was auditioning for The West Wing or House of Cards, because the scenario is interesting enough. A fly-on-the-wall documentary on government dealing with a crisis would be revealing but dull – a lot of government work is prosaic.

SW I’m a terrible actor so I treated it like work. There were moments when colleagues would say something outrageous, but I sat back, instead spending time thinking things through. Once you raise your voice, you lose your temper and make it personal, which doesn’t lead to good decision-making.

We are sitting at all the top tables, but war is the ultimate failure

During the series, the fictional American president doesn’t come to the UK’s aid initially. Would Donald Trump?

MG Trump has said that America can’t be relied on to support Britain in the Falklands because we didn’t support them over Iran, and the Americans have been talking to the Russians. Nothing wrong in trying to find peace in Ukraine, but the American approach seems to be one that regards the Russians as potential partners and friends, rather than as aggressors to blame for the atrocities. The recognition now that Trump is not someone on whom you can rely – which some would have said was obvious – has been reinforced by experience.

SW We can only hope that whoever comes next [as US president] is better for Britain. My party made huge mistakes early on where they didn’t understand what we were dealing with. We need to think about where power and influence is moving, and build new alliances – we can’t just assume it’s business as usual.

Did the meeting feel realistic?

SW It felt real in the room. Although Sky’s Cobra room was immaculate and state-of-the-art. The real thing is a miserable, dingy basement room giving no sense of gravitas!

Michael, you ran against Boris Johnson in 2016. Was being PM all it was cracked up to be?

MG No – the exercise taught me how tough being prime minister must be. It’s probably a good thing for the country that other people had the top job rather than me.

The series comes as Chancellor John Healey prepares to announce the future of defence spending – what should he do?

MG If the cost of improving defence and deterrence feels high now, consider the cost of an attack. Defence is an insurance policy and it’s always possible to argue the money should be spent elsewhere, but the risks are real and growing so it has to be a top priority. The Government needs to follow through on their Strategic Defence Review and find economies elsewhere.

Having been Defence Secretary and resigned over this, John knows how important it is. Any American president will find it much harder to succumb to isolationism if Europe is no longer freeriding on American investment.

SW The MoD needs to make sure we’re getting the most for taxpayers’ money. I’m not convinced defence contracts are structured in the interests of the British public or state, so we need to rethink that. And defence spending is never something nations do alone. We need to consider not just what we’re spending and how, but our alliances. We have the privilege of sitting at all the top tables, but war is the ultimate failure – are we investing enough in those relationships?

Do politicians dream of moments where their decisions make history?

MG You hope never to be in that situation. Ministers want to drive forward reform programmes – improve schools, transform farming, change prisons – so in my experience these crises derail whatever you’re trying to do to improve the situation overall. Even a prime minister wanting a prominent role on the world stage would want to do it through winning friends, building alliances, keeping people safe.

SW No, because however important you think you are, most of us in politics will only ever make a scratch on the surface of history. If that scratch turns out to be based on flawed intelligence, such as the Iraq War, you have to live with that for ever.