Trump overload killing Republican midterm chances of victory

The probable fate President Donald Trump faces in the US congressional midterm elections is a consequence of him getting his own way on almost everything his heart desired.

Thanks to compliant Republicans not reining him in, Trump has meddled with the judiciary and the media, introduced mad tariffs and started an unresolved war in Iran that has led to soaring fuel prices, among other things. Unsurprisingly, his popularity has plummeted to a record 36 per cent approval rating.

He is also taking flak for abusing his position and helping himself and his family to unprecedented wealth, littering Washington with vanity projects and tainting Supreme Court appointments to ensure a conservative majority. Meanwhile, the cost of living in the US continues to rise.

The Republicans have resorted to outrageous gerrymandering and unprecedented political donations to stop the Democrats, who are riding high in the polls.

Trump’s support among many groups that changed their spots last election has evaporated, and his former backers are returning to the alternative.

Trump takes a Republican Party into an election that has developed into a referendum on his leadership. He even urged the Republican Midterm Convention in Dallas, Texas, last August, to “pretend, please, that I’m on the ballot. Just come and vote. It’s so important.”

The Democrats have taken him at his word. And in the final weeks of the campaign, their election advertisements feature as the fourth-biggest factor voters raise in terms of turning away from the Republicans after healthcare, taxes and accusations of being beholden to special interests.

Even though its axiomatic that midterm elections are lost by the presidential incumbent and his party, Trump’s role will be seen as central if the Democrats seize control of the House of Representatives on November 3.

Both the House and the Senate are controlled by Republicans, albeit on a narrow margin. The entire House of Representatives is up for election, and about a third of the Senate, which the Democrats could win with a net gain of four seats. It’s highly possible they might control both houses.

Despite the weakness of their opponents, the Democrats have found it difficult to articulate what they stand for in the face of Trump’s constant battering. Torn between a left faction that dominates their electoral strongholds and a more nuanced faction creeping into Republican heartlands, voters are confused, and the final outcome may well depend on disillusioned independents who have cooled on the Trump circus.

The next two weeks will be crucial. Trump has nothing to lose and his petulant refusal to accept the will of the people raises the spectre of him mounting some phantasmagorical challenge to 250 years of American history.

Should the Democrats take control, it will be at least two months before they begin their attempts to stop the rot. It cannot come quick enough for the US. Or the rest of the world.

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