Bushfire strategy must change, expert says, after Tasmanian scare

Conducting more burn offs in winter and implementing an earlier official start to the fire season are just two things bushfire expert David Bowman is suggesting for Tasmania after the state experienced a shock start to the fire season on the weekend.

Sixty fires were reported around the state on Sunday, with the Tasmania Fire Service (TFS) confirming a large number were connected to burn-offs by people who "weren't prepared for the weather".

The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) said while its normal to have a couple of "spike days" in spring where there are strong winds, warmer temperatures and dry air over the state, Sunday's heat did arrive early.

"The conditions that we saw particularly across south eastern parts of the state were abnormally warm with temperatures around 10 degrees or even more above average" BOM meteorologist Urshla Connor. 

TFS wary of 'crying wolf', fire expert says  

There has been criticism of the TFS for not calling a total fire ban for Sunday given the predicted conditions.

Instead, it held a press conference on Friday, "strongly discouraging" residents preparing registered burns "from continuing with those activities.

Professor of Pyrogeography and Fire Science at the University of Tasmania, David Bowman, said implementing more fire bans isn't necessarily the answer to worsening fire seasons. 

"The problem is if you overcall total fire bans, and it turns out it's a fizzer, then you're getting into the 'oh they're crying wolf, so we won't worry about this total fire ban," Professor Bowman told 936 ABC Hobart.

"There are going to be some summer days coming where we are talking about an extraordinarily terrifying risk … now what happened on the weekend was bad and frightening, but I'm talking about way, way, way dialling up the stress levels

"A management agency has to be very careful to use an instrument like a total fire ban because the community could just get complacent,"

he added.

'Extremely challenging summer' ahead

Professor Bowman said he sympathised with fire authorities given they're now dealing with fire conditions that are becoming increasingly unpredictable and potentially catastrophic. 

The state can expect "an extremely challenging summer," he said.

"The thing that I really emphasise is expect the unexpected, so err much more on the side of caution because these landscapes are able to dry out very fast, given the right conditions."

That meant "a whole lot of consequences for administrative processes, for practices; what used to work clearly isn't going to keep working into the future," he said. 

Professor Bowman suggested implementing an earlier official start to the fire season and more burning off in winter. 

"It's totally consistent with what's happening around the world, more extreme fire weather, longer fire seasons, and so an early start is very consistent with what we would be expecting" 

Professor Bowman said he was recently in the Northern Territory and some planned burns there were being started at night.

"That's because fuels are so dry now, it's actually safer to start burning at night, so that's a very good example of adaptation and adjustment.

"Those sorts of things in a Tasmanian context would be thinking about burning much earlier in the winter and trying to readjust our thinking about the ramping up of danger."

Asked about the progress of this year's fuel reduction program, a spokesperson for the Tasmania Fire Service said its partner agencies "are continuing to make the most of favourable weather conditions … to progress planned burning activities ahead of the bushfire season".

"Fuel reduction burning is just one part of Tasmania's broader bushfire preparedness effort, alongside mechanical fuel management, mitigation works and community preparedness activities."

The role of climate change and El Niño

As well as the intensity and nature of bushfires changing, experts said the ability to predict conditions has become tougher.

"Events are getting harder to predict as we move into a warming climate and with climate change and especially warmer sea surface temperatures around not only Tasmania's coast but the whole of Australia", Urshla Connor said.

"We are in an El Niño year, as well as a positive Indian Ocean dipole phase, which both do lead to to generally drier and warmer conditions in Tasmania.

"While the whole state will be susceptible to seeing bushfire conditions, parts of the east and north-east coast have been flagged as being of particular worry for the upcoming fire season," she said. 

Experts are predicting this El Niño could be the strongest on record.