Brazil election: Can Flavio Bolsonaro challenge Lula in a neck-and-neck race? What latest polls show

Brazil's presidential election is entering its final stretch, with President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Flavio Bolsonaro in a close first-round race. An AtlasIntel poll gives 45% and Bolsonaro 42%. Voting is set for 4 October, with a runoff on 25 October if required.

Brazil's presidential election is entering its final stretch, with President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and right-wing challenger Flávio Bolsonaro by three percentage points in the latest first-round polling, according to Bloomberg. A potential runoff between the two remains statistically tied, said the report.

The latest AtlasIntel poll for Bloomberg, conducted among 5,005 people between 23 and 28 September, gives Lula 45% and Bolsonaro 42% in the first round. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 1 percentage point.

Brazil is scheduled to hold the first round on 4 October, with a runoff on 25 October if no candidate secures more than 50% of valid votes.

Lula, Bolsonaro neck-and-neck in runoff

The AtlasIntel survey gives 47.7% to Bolsonaro and 47.6% to Lula in a simulated runoff, putting the two effectively level within the poll's margin of error.

Reuters described the result as a statistical tie, with the 0.1-point difference too small to establish a meaningful lead.

The latest survey marks only a marginal shift from the previous AtlasIntel poll, which had Lula at 47.7% and Bolsonaro at 47.4% in a simulated runoff. That 17–22 September survey covered 5,015 respondents and had the same ±1 percentage-point margin of error.

The AtlasIntel series has consistently shown a close contest between the two politicians.

The 23–28 September survey is the latest in a series of national polls released by AtlasIntel, following surveys on 23 September, 17 September, 10 September and 31 August. Each used a sample of roughly 5,000 respondents and carried a ±1 percentage-point margin of error.

Bolsonaro emerges as Lula's main challenger

Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, entered the presidential race as the leading candidate of Brazil's Bolsonaro-aligned right after his father was barred from running.

His campaign has sought to capitalize on dissatisfaction with Lula's government and broader anti-establishment sentiment, according to The Hill. The election is also unfolding amid scrutiny surrounding the Banco Master scandal, which has drawn attention to political figures and institutions across Brazil, the report added.

Bolsonaro denied wrongdoing but has faced an investigation into alleged financial crimes linked to his relationship with banker Daniel Vorcaro.

Economy remains central to the campaign

Economic conditions remain another key issue in the election.

Brazil's unemployment rate fell to 5.3% in the three months through August, according to the country's statistics agency IBGE. It was the lowest rate for that period since the current methodology began in 2012. At the same time, informal employment remained significant, accounting for about 37.5% of the workforce.

Lula's government has also sought to address household financial pressures through measures such as adding expanded benefits under its social welfare programme and plans related to delinquent consumer debt, according to Reuters.

The first-round vote will determine whether either candidate secures enough support to win outright.

If neither candidate reaches the required threshold, the contest will move to a second round on 25 October.

About the Author

Bhanu Pratap is a journalist who reports and writes on foreign affairs, India’s foreign policy, geopolitics and strategic affairs. He closely follows diplomatic developments in New Delhi and has a keen interest in defence and national security.<br> <br> Bhanu also focuses on in-depth, interview-based reports and regularly speaking with experts and policymakers to bring perspectives and context to major developments around the world.<br> <br> He is also interested in stories with strong humanitarian angles.<br><br> One such report examined the cases of Indian nationals who were allegedly recruited and forced into Russia’s war against Ukraine. While reporting the story, Bhanu spoke to the families of those affected and documented their experiences. The report was later taken into account by the United Nations in its findings on human rights violations linked to the war in Ukraine.<br> <br> For Bhanu, the zeal to produce meaningful and impactful journalism remains at the heart of his work.<br> <br>He has previously worked with Firstpost, NDTV, Newslaundry and Republic.<br><br> Bhanu studied at the Delhi School of Journalism, University of Delhi. He initially chose science with plans to pursue engineering, influenced by conventional expectations, but fate had other plans and eventually led him to journalism.<br><br> Beyond the newsroom, Bhanu enjoys exploring culture and history and often spends his days off on heritage walks. He is also passionate about travelling, biking and listening to folk music.<br> <br>For tips, reviews and suggestions, you can reach him at bhanu.pratap@htdigital.in.

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