Polls do not dictate the winners

Amid the fervor of an election campaign, many treat poll results like a report card, scrutinizing every percentage-point change and growing anxious or panicking when numbers fluctuate. Some notice wide discrepancies between polls conducted by different organizations and question whether the methodology is flawed or the figures have been manipulated.

However, all of this is unnecessary. Polls are, after all, merely sample surveys — the real winner would ultimately be determined by each vote cast on election day.

In the past few years, polling has faced a fundamental problem: Few people answer landline calls, and many no longer have landlines at all. Yet local election polls often rely on landline numbers to identify a respondent’s location and confirm whether they live within the electoral district, which leads to insufficient coverage. That makes sampling impossible.

Even among those who still have landlines and are willing to answer, figuring out how to weigh their responses to accurately reflect the views of an entire electorate has become a major challenge for pollsters.

Imagine that only one person in a particular age group answers the phone. If that person’s views are weighted to represent the entire age group, any difference between their opinion and that of other voters could cause a dramatic shift in the overall results of the poll.

That is why polls should be taken with a grain of salt. There is no need to be discouraged by polls, and those who are in the lead certainly should not become complacent. Polls do not decide elections — votes do.

With less than one month until election day, candidates should not get carried away or disheartened by poll results. To achieve victory, they should make the most of the remaining time, work pragmatically to win votes and ensure that every vote is counted.

Some voters fixate on the polls while others dismiss the results as an illusion; some rush to interpret the numbers and others get into arguments or demand that the campaign teams of the candidate they support respond in specific ways.

As others descend into chaos, we should stay calm, take time to reflect on our chosen candidate’s strengths and think carefully about how to communicate those strengths to our friends and family — and even those we have only just met. We should engage with them sincerely, explaining why they need to vote and why they should vote for the candidate we are supporting.

One of the most important reasons for this is that China is always closely watching Taiwan’s elections. Election results reflect public sentiment and morale in Taiwan.

In Taipei, for example, Democratic Progressive Party Legislator and Taipei mayoral candidate Puma Shen (沈伯洋) — who advocates for resilience — would deal a serious blow to China’s will to wage war.

That is because China can only afford — and wants — a quick and decisive victory; otherwise, it risks the collapse of its regime. The more Taiwanese demonstrate their resilience and determination to resist, the more carefully China must weigh its options before acting and the less likely it is to launch a war.

While some candidates scramble to cover up their deeply flawed public image, dismiss unfavorable polls as illusions and spend their days cooped up at home “analyzing” poll results, we should put the polls aside for now. Whether the numbers favor us or not, the election outcome would be determined by actions.

There is no need to get emotional over poll numbers; instead, we must focus on steadily winning one, two or even 10 more votes each day. When the day’s work is done and you go to sleep, you can feel at peace knowing you have met your goal.

Each person’s small efforts, day after day, all add up to something much greater. The victory that ultimately matters most is the one achieved on election day.

Tommy Lin is chairman of the Formosa Republican Association and director of the Taiwan United Nations Alliance.