Friedrich Merz vows to stay in office after CDU ‘disaster’ in German state elections

Germany’s embattled chancellor, Friedrich Merz, has vowed to stay in office and fight for future-proofing economic changes despite heavy losses for his conservatives in two state elections, one to the far right and the other to a leftwing party.

Preliminary results indicated Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) tallied just over the 5% threshold to enter the state parliament in the coastal region of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, its worst-ever state score, which he called a “disaster”.

The anti-immigration, Kremlin-friendly Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party extended a streak of strong showings by coming in first in the former communist region with nearly 38%, more than doubling its previous score.

In the capital, Berlin, one of Germany’s 16 federal states, the far-left Linke looked on course to win with about 25% of the vote, ahead of the incumbent CDU by a five-point margin. The AfD made headway there too, with a clear double-digit result.

The deeply unpopular Merz has been fighting for his political survival after a humiliating series of setbacks with voters this year.

Speculation about his ability to hold on as chancellor reached fever pitch after Saxony-Anhalt state’s AfD chapter routed the CDU with a record 44% for the party in an election two weeks ago.

The Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania result marked the third time the AfD has emerged as the strongest party in a region, although the party seemed likely to remain shut out of power in the state because of a “firewall” of non-cooperation agreed by the other main parties.

In a rare speech on a state election night, Merz admitted the CDU had been bitterly deprived of “tailwinds from Berlin” in both of Sunday’s races. But he said he would remain chancellor and party chair and continue a reform drive on fronts including taxes, healthcare, pensions and reducing bureaucracy.

Merz said the German economy was facing “profound upheaval”, while public discourse had become “harsher and more irreconcilable”.

“Trust in our country’s institutions is waning and is being actively undermined by radical parties on both the left and the right,” he said.

But he added: “Germany is capable of reform. I would even go so far as to say that these reforms are the antidote to the poison of authoritarianism, which is penetrating ever deeper into our society as the fascination with authoritarianism grows.”

A jubilant AfD co-leader, Tino Chrupalla, mocked Merz before his speech, saying voters had given his own party a “very clear result” and called on the chancellor to resign.

About 2.5 million people were eligible to vote in Berlin and nearly 1.3 million in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.

The stinging blows from the latest elections had been expected to put pressure on Merz at a minimum to cede the CDU leadership, which would have in effect ruled out a run for re-election at the next national poll, due in 2029.

Merz’s eroding support has created a sense of instability in Europe’s top economy, which is struggling with deindustrialisation, sluggish growth and soaring energy costs.

If the AfD’s surge led Merz to abandon the chancellery prematurely, it would give the far right further momentum as France, Italy, Spain and Poland head into elections next year with nativist parties on the march.

Germany has high constitutional hurdles to replacing a chancellor against their will and any appointed successor would need to demonstrate a ruling majority. A failure to do so could trigger a new election.

The AfD is the biggest opposition force in parliament and is leading national opinion polls with about 30%. It has called for Germany to quit the euro, end support for Ukraine and carry out mass deportations of “irregular” migrants, while citing the “destruction” of the CDU as one of its central goals.

The CDU’s debacle in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania – a small, relatively poor state – is particularly bitter for Merz as it was home to the constituency of his arch-rival, Angela Merkel. While she governed Germany for 16 years, Merz appears to be on the ropes after no more than 16 months.

Merz took office in May 2025 at the helm of a coalition with the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) promising to restore the German economy to strength and slash the AfD’s support.

A failure to make decisive headway on either front has produced profound disappointment in his leadership, with only one in 10 Germans saying they are satisfied with his performance. An inability to connect with voters appears particularly marked in the former communist east, where the AfD is strongest.

In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the Social Democratic party state premier, Manuela Schwesig, distanced herself during the campaign from a key pension change backed by her party in Merz’s coalition government.

She was expected to hold on to power in a left-leaning coalition even if the AfD came out on top when all the votes were counted. Despite leading the polls for months, the far right failed to garner enough support to govern alone and the remaining parties have ruled out working with it.

A confirmed win by the far-left Linke in Berlin, where the party has called for expropriation of corporate landlords to fight rising housing costs, could see its candidate, Elif Eralp, become the capital’s first leader of Turkish origin.